Fantasy Football FAB Report: Week 9

Free agent budget waivers (FAB) are, without a doubt, the way to go. While some leagues are still sticking to the ancient ways of rolling list waivers (yuck) or waiver priority determined by the reverse order of standings (barf), many of the savvy ones are moving over to budgets. It makes sense -- why not give every manager an equal shot at every player. Do you really want to reward people for sucking at fantasy? Okay...rant over.

Every Tuesday evening, I (along with most managers in leagues with FAB waivers) spend countless hours trying to figure out how much to offer for the week's top available players -- which so happens to be exactly what this piece will cover.

Instead of telling you that you should be adding Alvin Kamara or Patrick Mahomes, this piece will focus strictly on players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Let's get to this week's top players and how much of my budget I'd be willing to offer to acquire them.

(The suggested offers are for 12-team, half-PPR leagues.)

Quarterback

Depending on your scoring and roster formats, how much you should spend at quarterback varies from league to league. If you're in a traditional, four-point-per-touchdown, one-quarterback league, there is rarely an occurrence where you should be spending a big chunk of your budget on the position. However, if you're in a Superflex or straight up two-quarterback league, that story changes entirely. With that in mind, let's look at this week's top streaming options.

When I refer to quarterbacks points, I'm utilizing Yahoo scoring.

Quarterback streaming is a mess for Week 9, though there are a couple of names worth mentioning.

Derek Carr (42% rostered) - Our top under-50% streamer has to be Carr. Yes, Carr busted in a great spot against the Cleveland Browns in Week 8, but the wind conditions changed the course of that entire game. This week, Carr gets a delicious matchup with a Los Angeles Chargers surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. All but one passer to face the Chargers have posted at least 17.0 fantasy points, while four have managed to exceed 20.0 -- that includes the player we're about to talk about, who had just one game with more than 15.0 fantasy points coming in. Carr had recorded at least 20.0 fantasy points in four of the five games prior to his Week 8 dud.

Suggested offer: 4-5%

Drew Lock (10% rostered) - If you're streaming at quarterback and your top option is Lock, chances are that you're not dancing out of excitement -- but hey, we work with what we go. Lock is going up an Atlanta Falcons defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers. Sure they've been better of late -- 33.0 fantasy points through their first four to just 18.8 in their last four -- but even during their four most recent contests, they still rank seventh-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. Lock has exceeded 15.0 fantasy points just 2 times in 10 career starts, but he's got a good shot at making it three this week.

Suggested offer: 1-3%

Running Back

Unlike quarterback, running back is a premier position in almost every format. For that reason, this is a position you'll want to be generous with. Of course, some backs have more value in PPR (point-per-reception) leagues than they do in standard, so be sure to keep that in mind.

This week, there is a hoard of backs with a roster percentage under 50% worth putting in an offer for, but there is no sure thing -- keep that in mind when you allocate your budget.

JaMycal Hasty (42% rostered) - Every time it seems like Hasty has hold of the San Francisco 49ers backfield for a game, another back throws his name in the ring -- first it was Jeff Wilson stealing Hasty's thunder, and then it was Tevin Coleman returning from injury. Well, Wilson is now on injured reserve, and Coleman left Sunday's game with a knee injury and did not return. As for Jerick McKinnon, he's been battling tired legs and is unlikely to be handed a sizable workload. That leaves Hasty as the potential lead-runner against a Green Bay Packers team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Green Bay ranks fifth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, and they've already surrendered 14 scores to the position. Through seven games, Green Bay has allowed more than 16.0 half-PPR (point per reception) points to a back six times. Hasty has value as a potential multi-week streamer.

Suggested offer: 15-18%

Damien Harris (48% rostered) - Just like the good old days, rostering a running back from the New England Patriots can be a headache, but Harris should have a roster percentage much larger than 48%. Harris has had 17, 11, and 16 touches in three of his four games, and he's managed at least 70 total yards in each of those three. Harris gets the New York Jets in Week 9, and while New York has an above-average Adjusted Rushing NEP per play mark, they have allowed eight different backs to record double-digit half-PPR points against them. Harris is a streaming option and a long-term play.

Suggested offer: 13-15%

Jordan Wilkins (3% rostered) - Wilkins saw 51% of the snaps in Week 8, recording 21 touches, which he turned into 113 total yards and a score. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor's snap percentage was at a season-low 34%, and his 13 touches were also a season-low. Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich said that Taylor is dealing with a bit of an ankle injury, which could explain both the usage and ineffectiveness. That said, I'd caution against making too significant an offer for Wilkins. First, he gets a matchup with the Baltimore Ravens this week, the team allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Second, unless Taylor actually misses time, Wilkins still has to contend with him and Nyheim Hines for touches in that backfield. The game script won't always be as positive as it was on Sunday, making Wilkins a very risky proposition.

Suggested offer: 7-9%

Wayne Gallman (24% rostered) - If the New York Giants were a smart franchise, they'd keep Gallman as the lead back for the rest of the season. That's a big "if" though. Among the 38 backs with at least 50 carries this season, Devonta Freeman ranks fifth-worst in Rushing NEP per carry and fourth-worst in Rushing Success Rate (i.e., the percentage of carries that lead to positive NEP for a team’s offense). This is nothing new -- of the 50 backs to see at least 75 rushes last season, Freeman ranked second-worst and dead last in those respective categories. To be quite frank, Freeman is a terrible back no matter which metric you use. If it was any team other than the Giants, I'd have confidence that they'd realize that.

Suggested offer: 7-8%

Brian Hill (11% rostered) - Speaking of terrible running backs, Todd Gurley is approaching that territory. Among the 65 backs with at least 25 carries, Gurley ranks 43rd in Rushing NEP per play (despite having scored eight times already) and 46th in Rushing Success Rate. In a salivating Week 8 matchup, Gurley managed just 46 yards on 18 carries. In fact, in his last three games, he's averaged just 2.6 yards per tote on 61 carries. No matter what you think of yards per carry, you can admit that that's just awful. Now, Hill hasn't been amazing this year, but it would behoove the Atlanta Falcons to see what they have in him. That started happening last week already, as Hill saw season-highs in both snap percentage (36%) and touches (13) -- he turned those into 62 yards. Take a flyer here and hope that the Falcons make a change within the next couple of weeks.

Suggested offer: 5-8%

Other options: With Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde both out in Week 9, DeeJay Dallas (25% rostered) racked up 58 total yards, 5 receptions, and 2 touchdowns. The matchup in Week 9 is friendlier, but given that Carson was a true game-time decision last week, there's likely a very real chance he returns this week. Dallas is worth an add in case Carson and Hyde can't go, but don't overspend -- 5-7% would be my max ... Troymaine Pope (0% rostered) played just 29% of the snaps against the Denver Broncos, but he did rack up 15 touches for 95 total yards. He's worth an add as a streamer, especially against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that ranks second-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Like Dallas, 5-7% would be my top offer here ... Gus Edwards (30% rostered) has garnered 14 and 16 carries in the last two games with Mark Ingram out, though he saw just a 32% snap share on Sunday. He's a worthy streamer as long as Ingram remains inactive. Like the two aforementioned backs, I'd spend up to 5-7% for Edwards as a streamer,

Wide Receiver

While it may vary based on scoring (standard versus PPR), wideouts are generally valued at similar rates in most formats. However, leagues that require you to start at least three wideouts could see inflated offers at the position.

Like last week, the receiver position isn't loaded with options worth splurging on, but there are some players worthy of your attention.

Corey Davis (48% rostered) - It's time that we talked about Davis' DeVante Parker-like breakout season in 2020. Davis has now been active in five games -- he's seen at least 5 targets and 73% of the snaps in each, and he's recorded totals of 13.6, 11.1, 9.4, 12.5, and 22.8 half-PPR points. In his last two games, Davis has played 91% and 79% of the snaps and has seen an even 10 targets in each. Since Week 7, he ranks 7th in the league in targets and 12th in Air Yards. While the 22.8-point isn't likely to be a common occurrence, Davis is still worth picking up as an every-week flex play.

Suggested offer: 15-18%

Sterling Shepard (44% rostered) - Shepard has been active for three full games this season. In those three contests, he's racked up 6, 8, and 10 targets and has played at least 70% of the snaps in each -- he recorded at least 6 receptions in each game. In any sort of PPR leagues, that's valuable production. Shepard also gets the benefit of not having to face the opposition's top cover guys, as Darius Slayton gets that honor. With target shares of 26.7% and 24.4% in his last two games, Shepard is a priority pickup as a potential flex option.

Suggested offer: 10-14%

Allen Lazard (34% rostered) - Lazard is available in far too many leagues. The number two wideout for the Packers was balling before a core injury knocked him out for a month. Lazard practiced last week, which is a good sign for his status on Thursday. Scoop him up before it's too late.

Suggested offer: 10-14%

Other options: Tim Patrick (19% rostered) recorded 12.1 or more half-PPR points in three of his four games before missing Week 8's contest with an injury. Patrick was a game-time call for that one, which likely means he has a good chance of suiting up in Week 9. An offer of 7-9% is worth it for a player who can bring upside to your flex spot ... With Deebo Samuel likely out at least one more week and George Kittle's season potentially being over, Kendrick Bourne (8% rostered) should continue to see a high volume of targets. Bourne saw 10 looks on Sunday while playing 86% of the snaps, and he turned those targets into 8 receptions for 86 yards. If you're in need of a flex option, 5-8% would be what I'd offer up for Bourne ... Speaking of flex options, Darnell Mooney (6% rostered) is turning into one for the Chicago Bears. Mooney has six at least five targets in six straight games -- however, given the quarterbacks he's playing with, those targets aren't always extremely valuable. That said, in Week 8, he did manage to churn out 69 yards and a tuddy. An offer of 4-7% would be fair here, depending on how desperately you need him.

Tight End

With Kittle out, Jordan Reed (3% rostered) becomes an upside add in San Francisco. Reed totaled 50 yards and 2 tuddies in Kittle's stead in Week 2. The Niners are hoping to have him back for Week 9, and if he does return, he'll be one of the week's top streamers. My offer would be 7-10%, and I wouldn't spend more than 3% for his teammate Ross Dwelley (0% rostered) ... Eric Ebron (46% rostered) has seen at least five targets in five of his last six games, and he's recorded at least 8.0 half-PPR points in three of those five. Six of Ebron's next seven matchups are against teams that are amongst the 12 most-generous to the tight end position. An offer of 7-9% should do it in most leagues ... Trey Burton (22% rostered) has received at least five opportunities (targets plus carries) in each of his four games this season. He's recorded half-PPR totals of 5.8, 19.9, and 8.6 points in his last three. With Burton's snap shares hovering around 50%, he'll continue to be a priority streamer on a weekly basis. I'd spend 5-6% of my budget to acquire him.