Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Can the Bucs Keep Things Rolling?
Ravaged by injuries, the New York Giants face the unenviable task of hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Led by Tom Brady, the Buccaneers have surged to a 5-2 record to sit atop the NFC South and are the top team in our rankings. The Giants clock in as the third-worst team by our data.
With a 12.5-point spread, this one could be a blowout. Can the Giants pull off the home upset?
Let's dive into what our models think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Consider the Points With Tampa
It's a large spread (12.5-points is a lot), and it may seem like an odd recommendation, considering the Giants have dropped two of their last three contests by a combined 4 points.
But let's keep a few things in mind. Playing the NFC East, the worst division in all of football, is a different test than playing the Buccaneers.
While he looked a bit rusty to start the season, Brady has been on fire as of late, racking up nearly 300 passing yards per game (290.8) over the last five contests while tossing 15 touchdown passes and only a single pick. Tampa has also gone 4-2 against the spread in their last six contests, and that's with some significant injuries to the wide receiving corps.
Situation-neutral pace indicates the over (45) could get smashed, too. Both teams are among the quickest in the league, ranking inside the top-10.
Interestingly, 72% of bettors on the total are hammering the over, per oddsFire, and 81% of bets are supporting the road Bucs.
Bets to Consider
Money is pouring in on the road teams -- 87% of cash on the spread is backing Tampa Bay. Our models definitely support the road team and give them the best shot to win (78.9%). However, we make the Giants, with those points, a two-star bet.
With the total, we think these two go over 45 points 50.6% of the time.
There's a fun angle here with the Buccaneers' spread or moneyline and Brady's props. Per our rankings, the Giants have the league's fifth-worst passing defense, and over at FanDuel Sportsbook, Brady's passing props are set at 261.5 yards and 1.5 touchdown passes. If you believe Tampa keeps things rolling, this is definitely one to watch -- Brady has thrown for a very nice 369 yards in two of his last four games.
Historical Betting Trends
-- Both teams have been solid against-the-spread bets this season, posting 4-3 marks.
-- While this is a much different team with Brady, Tampa Bay is only 2-6-1 against the spread in their last two years in November.
-- The Giants have surged recently with a 4-2 record against the spread in their last six games.
-- The over has been Tampa's friend -- they've nailed that puppy 15 times in their last 20 games.
