7 Daily Fantasy Football Tournament Plays for Week 7
By Week 7, pricing on daily fantasy sites are usually pretty sharp. There is a better feel for how good defenses truly are, how offenses use certain players, and how players are performing on an individual level.
But that doesn't mean that all of the players with big games in order are priced up in the industry or that smart plays are the obvious ones. This is particularly true in tournaments, in which high-variance players are critical.
Below are some intriguing players who could have surprisingly big days, but of course, check out numberFire's optimal lineup tool. You can also check out the custom optimal lineups to make tweaks - if that's your thing.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins - Cousins has quietly been putting together a respectable fantasy season so far. Since he took the helm in Week 2, he has averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game and is tied for 6th in the league with 10 touchdown passes. He has also seen consistent volume, ranking fourth among quarterbacks in passing attempts since Week 2. He hasn't attempted fewer than 33 passes in a game. Matched up against a Tennessee defense that ranks 20th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, Washington is projected by Vegas odds-makers to score 25.5 points this week.
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals - Hill has been an incredibly effective runner this season. Of running backs with 20 carries or more, Hill ranks third in both Rushing NEP and Rushing NEP per play. This week he is matched up against the Colts, who have been among the worst in the league stopping the run. They rank 29th on a per-play basis according to our adjusted metrics. The Bengals are poised to take advantage of this defense, currently sitting sixth in run-to-pass ratio.
Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens - Forsett has posted the highest Rushing NEP among running backs so far this season by a wide margin. His Rushing NEP of 15.36 is well above Mark Ingram's 9.77. The Falcons defense that he will be up against this week is sitting on the opposite end of the spectrum, only 31st in in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Forsett should see plenty of opportunities to exploit this matchup, as he has 10 or more carries in all but 2 games, as well as 5 or more passing targets in all but 1 game this season.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers - Adams has seen his role in the Packers' offense grow and was targeted eight times last week. He has also seen six red zone targets so far. Green Bay will likely be among the highest-scoring teams in the league this week, with only Denver and Baltimore projected higher than Green Bay's 28. Against a Panther pass passing defense that ranks only 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, Adams provides a lot of upside, especially when compared to his low price tag (only $3,900 on DraftKings).
James Jones, Oakland Raiders - Jones is the target leader (with 35) in what has so far been a very pass-heavy Raiders offense. Oakland has gone to the air an average of 38 times per game, running the ball on fewer than one third of plays. Jones is also the primary red zone target in Oakland, accounting for 36% of them. If Derek Carr can continue his momentum after a big game last week, Jones should have a big day against a Cardinals secondary that is allowing over 300 passing yards per game.
Larry Donnell, New York Giants - Despite performing abysmally over the last two weeks, Donnell has a tremendous amount of upside, especially in tournaments this week. Donnell still poses big touchdown potential in the red zone, sitting 4th in the league with 11 red zone targets despite seeing only 2 over the last 2 weeks. He also should benefit greatly from going up against the Cowboys defense this week. The Cowboys have had 5 tight ends score at least 14 points against them, including 3 games of 20 or more points. Coming off of two bad weeks Donnell has seen his price tag fall drastically, and may end up with a fairly low ownership rate.
Green Bay Packers - Green Bay enters Week 7 with 13 takeaways, good for third in the league. Green Bay is projected to keep Carolina's scoring in check. Per Vegas oddsmakers, the Panthers' projection of 21 is the 9th-lowest of the week. With the Packers favored by seven points, Carolina could be forced to pass a lot against the Packers secondary, giving them lots of opportunities to improve on their nine interceptions, which ranks second in the NFL.