Victiv Fantasy Football: Week 7 Studs and Duds
If you're looking for a new, unique daily fantasy football experience, it's time to check out Victiv.
Why play on Victiv over the competition? It starts with the in-game experience. The real-time dashboards on Victiv have live animations that effectively alert users to changes with their players and contests on a rolling basis. And this often happens before the TV stations are able to beam the images to your television.
It's not just the in-game experience that sets Victiv apart, either. Victiv brings an innovative perspective to daily fantasy contests from start to finish. Having trouble deciding who to start and who to fade? Just turn to the Victron for help. The Victron is a roster creation assistant that lets you plug in your statistical preferences by using a series of sliders which then builds a customized lineup based on those preferences while staying within the allotted salary cap.
Speaking of the salary cap, Victiv provides the most predictive player salaries in the industry, which means lower minimum salaries, deeper values and the ability to pair stars with your sleepers like no other.
Before turning to the Victron for help, we here at numberFire thought we should give you some advice of our own. We took a look at the Victiv predictive player salaries, compared them with our projections and found you some studs and some duds at each position.
Studs
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers ($9,700) – Although he did get off to a bit of a slow start this season, Rodgers is back in MVP form. In his past three games, the Packers' signal-caller has posted 722 yards, 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. In fact, Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns with only a single interception on the entire season.
With the Panthers coming to visit Green Bay this week, Rodgers not only comes into this week red hot but gets an excellent matchup. The Panthers rank 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) and have surrendered the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Our algorithms project Rodgers as the highest scoring quarterback this week, yet he is the 12th-most expensive player at the position. Rodgers is as close to a must start as it gets this week at his price.
Running Back: Justin Forsett ($4,700) – Forsett has quietly been one of the best running backs in fantasy this season. Forsett's 408 rushing yards on the season ranks sixth in the NFL and his 6.4 yards per carry is a full yard better than anyone else is the league who has carried the ball at least 30 times. Additionally, the Ravens running back leads the league in Rushing NEP 15.36. The next closest player is at 9.77. This week, Forsett gets a matchup with an Atlanta Falcons defense which has surrendered by far the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. At just $4,700, Forsett provides you with the rare combination of a high floor, high upside and an extremely fair price. Plug him into your lineups.
Wide Receiver: Jordy Nelson ($7,700) – As I already mentioned, the Panthers' pass defense has not been very good this season. If we're expecting Rodgers to have a big game this week, the most likely beneficiary in the receiving game is Nelson.
Rodgers has targeted Nelson 68 times this year, 28 more than anyone else on the Packers. Jordy has converted that massive number of targets into 48 catches for 632 yards and 5 touchdowns, all of which rank in the top 5 in the NFL. Considering he has a plus-matchup against Carolina and that he's averaging more than 11 targets per game, Nelson ranks third in our projections this week. While the Packers' wide receiver is just the fifth-most expensive wide receiver on the board, the $2,000 gap between him and the most expensive receiver - Julio Jones – is a substantial one. Jordy should provide you with excellent value at an excellent price.
Tight End: Jordan Reed ($4,300) – Playing in his first game since suffering a hamstring injury early in Week 1, Reed looked incredible last week dropping an 8-catch, 92-yard performance on the Cardinals. This week, Reed gets an excellent matchup with a Titans' defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the season. The Redskins' tight end has consistently posted gaudy numbers when healthy and isn't even listed on the injury report coming into this week's game, but at just $4,300 his price still hasn't fully corrected. Reed should have absolutely no problem exceeding value at that price point and makes a great play in all formats.
Duds
Quarterback: Tony Romo ($10,500) – Coming off of a huge win on the road at Seattle, Romo's price has skyrocketed all the way to the fourth-most expensive option on the board. The problem is, as great as the Cowboys have been, Romo hasn't been a great fantasy quarterback this season. What has made Dallas such a great team is their ball control offense that dominates the clock by pounding the ball with DeMarco Murray. The Cowboys have simply not thrown the ball enough for Romo to return top-10 value this season. Romo actually ranks outside of the the top 10 at the position in passing attempts, completions and yards this season. Additionally, Romo gets a tough matchup this week with the underrated Giants' secondary which has held opposing quarterbacks to the ninth least fantasy points in the league. There is just absolutely no reason to pay top five value for Romo this week.
Running Back: Steven Jackson ($5,100) – Coming into this season, the fantasy community was split on Jackson. Some thought he could provide great value as the lead back in a high-powered offense, while others thought he was over the hill and wouldn't even be the lead back in Atlanta. Through six games, Jackson's value has been closer to what the skeptics were expecting than those who were high on him.
While SJax has been the unquestioned lead back for the Falcons, Atlanta's backfield has become crowded with four other players already seeing at least 10 carries. Jackson is averaging only 13 touches a game and has converted that to less than 60 yards per game. On top of the sheer lack of volume, the Falcons are facing off with a Ravens' defense which has allowed the third fewest points to opposing running backs on the season. Jackson is the 17th-most expensive running back on the board, but we don't even have him projected inside the top 25. SJax is definitely someone you want to avoid this week.
Wide Receiver: T.Y. Hilton ($8,000) – After his monster 9-catch, 223-yard, 1-touchdown destruction of the Texans last week, Hilton's price tag has ballooned all the way up to fourth-most expensive at wide receiver this week. The problem with Hilton is that although he is definitely receiving number-one wide receiver volume, he just hasn't converted that volume into top-five production other than last week.
Hilton only has two games this season where he has gone over 100 receiving yards and hadn't even caught a touchdown pass before last week. On top of that, Hilton is playing against a Cincinnati defense which ranks third against the pass according to numberFire metrics and has given up the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers on the season. As dominant as Hilton looked last week, it is definitely safe to fade him this week.
Tight End: Travis Kelce ($4,000) – Although he's caught a touchdown in each of his past three games, other than Week 4 against New England, the Chiefs have not taken advantage of the mismatches Kelce creates nearly as much as many in the fantasy community expected. Kelce has only caught five or more balls once this season and has only gone over 50 yards twice. The Chiefs' tight end actually leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, but the Chiefs have thrown the ball the third-fewest times in the NFL and are averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt.
Kansas City is one of only two teams in the league that has thrown for less than 1,000 yards and one of only four to be averaging less than 200 passing yards a game. As talented as Kelce is, this Chiefs' offense is tough to trust on a week-to-week basis, especially considering a Chargers' defense that has allowed just the third fewest points to opposing tight ends on the season. Considering that our algorithms have him projected as the 15th-highest scoring tight end this week, there are much better options on the board at the tight end position than Kelce this week.
