NFL

FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 7 Sunday Night (Seahawks at Cardinals)

A late-week schedule change moved the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals matchup into the Sunday night slot.

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites, and the total is at 54.5 points -- implying a score of 29.00-25.50 in favor of Seattle.

Per our oddsFire tool, 72% of both spread bets and spread money is on Seattle. With the total, 65% of the bets are on the over but only 50% of the money is following suit. Our model projects Seattle to win 26.40-23.44, so we side with the sharp money on the under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($16,500)

It's very easy to make a case for either of the signal callers in this game. Russell Wilson has been outstanding in 2020, averaging 30.10 FanDuel points per game. He hasn't gone below 21.90 FanDuel points for the year, and he's got three games between 31.78 and 36.80 points. His running ability adds to his floor and ceiling.

By our schedule-adjusted numbers, the Cards have been right around a league-average defense. This is a major pace-up spot for Russ. Seattle is 30th in situation-neutral pace while Arizona is 2nd.

I'm not telling you anything you don't know, but Wilson could smash in the MVP slot. We project him for 23.8 FanDuel points, tops on the slate by 2.3 points.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($16,500)

Here's Kyler Murray's FanDuel point totals this season -- 27.3, 33.1, 24.7, 23.1, 27.3 and 28.9. That works.

Murray has been lethal as a runner this year. He is leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards (370) and has six scores on the ground. He's run for at least 29 yards in every game.

Of the two guys under center, Murray -- who we have projected for 21.5 FanDuel points -- definitely has the better matchup. Seattle is a pass-funnel defense, sitting eighth against the run and next to last versus the pass, according to our numbers. They're allowing the second most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks along with the most points per game -- by nearly 10 FanDuel points -- to receivers.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($12,000)

Quarterbacks are always chalky MVP picks on single-game slates, and that's going to be even more true with guys the caliber of Murray and Wilson. A good way to gain some leverage on this slate -- or any single-game slate -- is to go with a non-quarterback at MVP.

There are plenty of good options, and Lockett is my favorite.

While I'm not going to put up too much of a fight if you prefer D.K. Metcalf ($13,000) of Seattle's big two receivers, this looks like a better spot for Lockett. A whopping 44% of Metcalf's targets have come at least 15 yards downfield. According to Sports Info Solutions (with a tip of the cap to our Ryan McCrystal), against such throws in 2020, the Cardinals are allowing a meager 25.8% completion rate, the lowest clip in the league.

If Seattle has to go away from chunk plays in this one, Lockett -- whose average target distance is 9.2 yards, compared to Metcalf's 17.0 -- could be a target hog. We project Lockett (13.2) and Metcalf (14.2) for similar outputs, making Lockett the better point-per-dollar play by a razor-thin margin.

Christian Kirk, Cardinals ($11,000)

This feels like point chasing after Christian Kirk had his first splash game in Week 6, totaling 21.6 FanDuel points on two catches, 80 yards and two touchdowns. But Kirk is certainly in play against this porous Seattle secondary, especially with DeAndre Hopkins ($14,500) missing a lot of practices the past two weeks and playing a season-low 77% of the snaps last game. As of Saturday, the Cards are "hopeful" Hopkins plays, so who knows.

As we mentioned above, the Seahawks are allowing the most FanDuel points per game to wideouts. They're giving up an astounding 49.2 points per game to the position, 9.3 more than any other team.

Kirk's Week 6 blowup was coming. He has a 30.1% air yards share for the season, and his snap count has been on the rise each of the last three weeks since he sat out Week 3, with his 81% snap rate last time out being a season-high mark.

Hopkins -- even at less than 100% health -- could torch this Seattle pass D, so if you want to use Nuk, go for it. But I like Kirk's big-play ability and salary. If Hopkins sits, Kirk's outlook would get a significant boost but so would his roster percentage.

Chase Edmonds, Cardinals ($9,500)

Before Kenyan Drake ($12,500) went wild in Week 6, it felt like Chase Edmonds was on the verge of taking over this backfield. But in a positive game script in the Cards' drubbing of the Dallas Cowboys, Drake logged nearly twice as many snaps as Edmonds did (42 to 23).

One area in which Edmonds has supplanted Drake is as Arizona's preferred passing-down back. Edmonds has 25 targets to Drake's eight. He's seen at least two looks in each game and has gotten at least four targets in four of six contests. Edmonds is getting a little red zone love, too, garnering nine total touches inside the 20 and scoring two tuddies.

If you're loading up on Seattle, Edmonds is a fantastic run-it-back option as he'll likely be more involved in a negative game script.

Greg Olsen, Seahawks ($7,000)

Among the lower-salary dudes, we're looking at Greg Olsen, Andy Isabella ($7,500) and Larry Fitzgerald ($7,000) unless you're wanting to get super weird. I like Olsen among this trio unless Hopkins sits.

Olsen played a season-high 83% of the snaps in Seattle's last game, and even though that resulted in just one target -- which he caught for 20 yards -- that kind of snap rate is easy to like when we're looking at the clearance rack. The two games before that, Olsen got seven and six targets, and maybe he gets funneled a few more looks in this one if Patrick Peterson stymies one of the Seahawks' star receivers.

The Cardinals were laughably bad versus tight ends a season ago, but they've been closer to league average this year in terms of FanDuel points allowed to the position. Still, Olsen is a viable dart throw as an economical way to get a piece of the Seattle passing game.