FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 7
Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.
As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.
Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays of the slate.
Russell Wilson ($8,700 on FanDuel): Following a Week 6 main slate that was lacking a bit in star power, we get quite a few big names back on the stage this week, including Russell Wilson, the only player cracking 30 FanDuel points per game. And the fantasy points should be flowing once again for Russ on Sunday, as the Seahawks-Cardinals duel is one of three games with an over/under eclipsing 54 points. As a reminder of how lucrative Seattle games can be, these are the final totals in their five 2020 games: 53, 54, 69, 65, and 63 points. This has shootout written all over it, and it probably won't surprise you that Wilson is the top projected player on the slate.
Kyler Murray ($8,400): Of course, if Wilson's piling up the fantasy points, that likely means Kyler Murray will be excelling on the other side, too. To this point, Murray is besting Lamar Jackson for top honors in the rushing department, as he's bumped up his rush attempts to 8.5 per game (5.8 in 2019) and now leads all signal-callers in both rushing yards (370) and rushing scores (6). That's earned him a fantastic fantasy floor, scoring no fewer than 23 FanDuel points in all six weeks. Seattle ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics, so the stars are aligned for a peak performance.
Deshaun Watson ($8,000): If you're looking for a low-salary option, Matthew Stafford ($7,300) is in a great bounce-back spot against Atlanta (54.5 total) after flopping as a chalk quarterback last week. But in terms of point-per-dollar value, Deshaun Watson is right up there with Stafford in numberFire's projections, as it's the Packers-Texans game that's showing the slate's highest over/under (57.5). Although we saw Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) and the Packers face-plant against a stout Buccaneers defense in a high-total game last week, we shouldn't have any fear of a flop happening against Houston, which ranks 20th in adjusted pass defense and 27th against the run. Green Bay has nearly identical marks (17th; 26th), setting us up for a plethora of fantasy points on both sides. Watson has rattled off three straight 300-yard passing games in similar matchups, and while he still isn't running as much as we would like, he's tied for 10th in quarterback rushes.
Alvin Kamara ($9,300): The Saints have a 29.25 implied total as 7.5-point favorites over the Panthers, a team that's allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. No team has been attacked through the air by opposing backfields more than Carolina (55 targets), leading to a league-high 47 receptions allowed to backs. It all boils down to an amazing situation for Alvin Kamara, who's averaging 12.2 carries and 9.0 targets per game.
Aaron Jones ($8,500): Green Bay has the slate's top implied total (30.25), and Houston's weakest against the run, where they've allowed the league's most rushing yards and the third-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. Due to the presence of Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones has a less-than-ideal 56.1% snap rate -- lowering his floor -- but he still averages a healthy 15.0 rushes and 5.6 targets per game and is the preferred option in the red zone, with an 11-to-4 advantage over Williams in carries inside the 10-yard line. While his usage can be frustrating at times, we know Jones is good for a few slate-breaking games every year -- just look at his Week 2 score against Detroit -- and that's certainly in his range of outcomes this week.
Mike Davis ($7,700): The Mike Davis experience continues on with Christian McCaffrey expected to sit out another week. Davis curiously only saw 3 targets in a loss to Chicago, but the good news was he still tallied 18 carries and saw a season-high 88.2% snap rate. There's no reason to think he won't remain heavily involved against New Orleans, and even with his salary steadily climbing every week, he's still a solid value for a player who's rarely leaving the field.
Kareem Hunt ($7,100): Kareem Hunt has a strong case for being the top point-per-dollar running back of the slate. With the Browns getting absolutely trucked by the Steelers, Hunt never really got a chance to get things going last week, relegating him to single-digit FanDuel points. The good news is his salary barely budged as a result, and game script should be far more in his favor as the Browns are a slight favorite over the Bengals. We should see Hunt jump back up to the workload we saw in Week 5 -- if not better -- when he notched 20 carries and 4 targets on a 69.9% snap rate.
Davante Adams ($8,900) and DeAndre Hopkins ($9,000): As top tier wideouts in games with massive shootout potential, you'll definitely want exposure to both Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins. In his two full games, Adams has seen 17 and 10 targets with a 37.5% target share and 35.2% air yards share, and he's projected for the most targets this week. Meanwhile, Hopkins is coming off a modest outing by his standards, but he's averaging a touch more than 10 targets per game and now faces a Seahawks defense that's allowed far and away the most FanDuel points per game to wideouts. Adams gets the slightest of edges in numberFire's projections.
Kenny Golladay ($7,600): The Lions ultimately let the running game do most of the talking in a blowout win over the Jaguars, but they should be forced to air it out more this week after the Falcons' offense finally woke up with the return of Julio Jones ($8,300). Between that and Atlanta's 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense, Golladay could be in line for his first blowup game of 2020. As is, he's cracked double-digit FanDuel points in all three of his games and leads the team with a 24.7% target share and 35.0% air yards share over that span.
DK Metcalf ($7,300) and Tyler Lockett ($7,400): As always, the beauty of rostering Russell Wilson is we know where most of those targets are going to go. DK Metcalf is one of the better values of the slate, coming in with a 24.5% target share and 45.2% air yards share. He's averaging an absurd 131 air yards per game, which is second to only Calvin Ridley ($8,400). Tyler Lockett can't quite compete with all that, but he's seeing approximately the same percentage of targets (23.9%) and is the next best on the team in air yards (24.0%).
Will Fuller ($6,900): If we ignore Will Fuller's Week 2 goose egg -- a game where he was hobbled by a hamstring issue -- he's averaged 8.2 targets over the other five games with a 25.6% target share and 38.3% air yards share. It's possible that Fuller is shadowed by Jaire Alexander, but that shouldn't prevent us from prioritizing Fuller in Packers-Texans stacks.
Travis Kelce ($7,900): Travis Kelce's salary isn't ideal on a slate where we'll be much more inclined to spend at other positions, but we know the scoring upside he brings to the table. Kelce is averaging nearly nine targets per game and leads all players in red-zone targets (10) and targets inside the 10-yard line (7). This isn't a particularly great spot against the Broncos, but this is Patrick Mahomes ($9,000) and Kelce we're talking about, and the Chiefs have a high implied total as usual (27.50). Note that this game is expected to see temperatures below 20 degrees and possibly even snow, which could add some risk. However, that could also temper Kansas City's roster percentages in tournaments.
Hunter Henry ($5,800): Hunter Henry figures to be a popular option at his salary, as his 7.0 targets per game rank behind only Kelce and George Kittle ($7,100) on the slate, but you aren't paying a premium for his services. Throw in a matchup against Jacksonville's 31st-ranked adjusted pass defense, and it's easy to like Henry as one of the top values on the board.
Buffalo D/ST ($5,000): The Bills haven't exactly been an immovable object on defense, but they project for the most points at defense by a good chunk. The reason? They're the latest team to face the woeful Jets, who, not surprisingly, are numberFire's worst adjusted offense. Even if Sam Darnold is able to return this week, it's hard to see him changing the fortunes of this floundering team.
Dallas D/ST ($3,700): The Cowboys are a downright poor defense, but their date with Washington puts them on the value radar as the top point-per-dollar value in numberFire's projections. We had a similar situation against the Giants in Week 5, and the Cowboys managed to finish with 9.0 FanDuel points with the help of a defensive score. We're not expecting any miracles here, but the savings will come in handy this week, and you could certainly do worse than attacking Kyle Allen on any given slate.