FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Sunday Night (Rams at 49ers)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Rams are 3.0-point favorites, and the total is at 52.0 points -- implying a score of 27.5-24.5 in favor of LA.
The betting public is all over the Rams. Per our oddsFire tool, 83% of spread bets are on LA, and 78% of the money on the spread is backing the Rams. The moneyline and total are split much more evenly. Our model sees the under hitting but more or less falls in line with the spread, forecasting the Rams to win 24.74-21.79.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Jared Goff, Rams ($15,500)
This is a much better matchup for Jared Goff than it is for Jimmy Garoppolo. The banged-up defense of the 49ers is allowing the 13th most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks, while the Rams are surrendering the 7th fewest. Given the matchup advantage and how bad Jimmy G looked last week, Goff will likely be the most popular player on the slate, and we peg him for 18.8 FanDuel points, 2.6 more than anyone else.
After a down year in 2019, Goff has rebounded in a big way so far this campaign. He's at 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt, the best mark of his career, and he's thrown multiple scores in three of his last four games. The negative is that LA is passing at the second-lowest rate in the league (48.48%), which caps Goff's ceiling unless the Rams get behind.
It's scary to fade both signal callers on a single-game slate, but it's something I'll consider on this one. At a minimum, I'll be fading these guys as MVP picks.
Raheem Mostert, Niners ($14,000)
In his first game after sitting out two contests, Raheem Mostert returned to a 48% snap rate. Jerick McKinnon ($12,500) played 25% of the snaps, and Jeff Wilson was also in on 25% of snaps. When Mostert was healthy the first two weeks, Wilson saw snap shares of 0% and 8%, so I'm expecting Mostert to absorb some more snaps at Wilson's expense.
Our model projects Mostert as the highest-scoring non-quarterback as we have him totaling 13.5 FanDuel points. He's seen at least three targets in both of his full games this year, and Mostert's big-play ability gives him slate-breaking potential in single-game contests.
I expect San Fran to try to get their offense back on track by giving their ground game plenty of volume. Mostert is the back we project for the most touches in this game -- for either side -- and is a guy I'll sprinkle into the MVP spot.
Cooper Kupp ($12,500) and Robert Woods ($13,000), Rams
Robert Woods has led the Rams' wideouts in snaps in each of the last three games, and with their backfield being a huge shrug emoji since everyone is healthy, I'll likely get exposure to this offense through Woods and Cooper Kupp -- both of whom have logged a snap rate of at least 80% in every game.
Kupp has 36 targets this season, and Woods has 31 looks. No other Rams wideout has more than 16.
While San Francisco has allowed the ninth-fewest FanDuel points per game to receivers, that's deceivingly low because they've surrendered just four tuddies to the position. They've actually given up totals that are slightly worse than average in receptions and yards to the position.
I think you can make a case for either Kupp or Woods as MVP plays, especially if you think the Rams see a negative game script and need to air it out more than they have been.
George Kittle, 49ers ($13,500)
The last time we saw George Kittle on Sunday night, he went nuclear on the Philadelphia Eagles, catching all 15 of his targets for 183 yards and a tud. He almost never comes off the field -- snap rates of 99% and 100% in the last two -- and has the best matchup of any of the Niners' weapons.
It's not an unreal spot as the Rams are giving up about league-average production to tight ends. But LA is allowing the fewest points per game to wideouts, which could funnel more looks to Kittle. I expect Kittle to be a big factor, and we have him pacing the slate in catches, targets and receiving yards.
We rarely want to stick a tight end in the MVP spot, but Kittle isn't a normal tight end. He and Mostert should be the best way for San Fran to move the rock.
Gerald Everett, Rams ($5,500)
Gerald Everett has played at least 40% of the snaps in five straight weeks, and he out-played Tyler Higbee ($10,500) a week ago, seeing two more targets (four to two) on his way to a four-catch, 90-yard outing.
Neither Rams tight end is all that useable with them splitting the work, but Everett is a step up from most players priced in this range and deserves a look.