Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 6
You ever drink hot sauce and beer at the same time? Neither have I. But it does seem bold.
Not to be confused with baldness, boldness would be sporting a mohawk at the ripe young age of 75. In an unrealistic football analogy, boldness would be trading the best receiver in football for a washed-up running back with a huge contract. Ehhh, no one would be that stup... oh, nevermind.
For this article, we'll focus the boldness on fantasy football. Think of this piece like Taco Tuesday -- it's better when it's spicy, but the spiciness is not what it's all about; it's there to add flavor. The point here is not to hit on 100% of the predictions. After all, I'm not a vomiting hippo. The goal here is to uncover insights that can help us win some dough in fantasy.
Now, let's go drink a bottle of Tabasco.
(All predictions are for half-PPR and Yahoo scoring for quarterbacks.)
1. Matthew Stafford Finishes as a Top-3 Quarterback
Matthew Stafford ($7,300) has been steadily improving as the season has gone on. After finishing as the QB21 in Week 1, he's posted QB19, QB15, and QB9 ranks, in that order -- I'm expecting that trend to continue, with a leap into the top-three not being too far-fetched. In Week 6, Stafford gets the lucky draw that is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags have faced the sixth-fewest passes in the league, and yet they've allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. How is that possible, you ask? Well, Jacksonville ranks dead last in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. And while the New York Jets didn't get this memo, "last" is the exact opposite of "first".
Jacksonville has already surrendered three top-eight performances to opposing signal-callers, and given that the Detroit Lions have the second-highest implied total on the main slate, Stafford could be in the running for the overall QB1 spot. Eight passers have salaries higher than Stafford's, so be sure to take advantage of that superb value.
2. David Montgomery Finishes as a Top-5 Running Back
David Montgomery ($5,900) has appeared in 21 games in his career -- his two highest snap shares (85% and 81%) have come in the last two weeks. That's not all -- Montgomery has also set new career-highs in targets in consecutive weeks with 6 and 8, respectively. What we're seeing is a guy turning into a workhorse back right before our eyes. With Tarik Cohen out for the season, that's not about to change.
All that means that Montgomery is about to smash big time against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing backs this season, and they just lost defensive tackle Kawann Short for the season. Carolina has surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards, the most touchdowns, and the most receptions to opposing backfields this season -- that bodes well for a guy that's seeing increased usage in the passing game. Montgomery could be in for a career game in Week 6.
3. James Robinson Finishes as a Top-3 Running Back
This is not an outlandish prediction by any means -- James Robinson ($6,500) finished as the RB3 in Week 3. This, however, is as dreamy of a matchup as it gets. Through Week 5, the Detroit Lions are tied for the league's worst mark in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, and they've allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing backfields. In their last three contests, Detroit has allowed three different backs to score at least 19.4 half-PPR points.
For a guy getting 18.4 touches per game, a matchup like this is all you can ask for. The Jags have an implied total of 25.5, which is more than enough for Robinson to be productive.
4. Kenny Golladay Posts 120+ Yards and a Touchdown
Are you starting to see a trend? Yes, I am very much targeting the matchup between the Lions and Jaguars, two teams with bad defenses that are inside the top-eight in the fastest pace of play. Enter Kenny Golladay ($7,200). Babytron has posted 119 yards and 2 scores in his last two games, and he could very well match those totals in this game alone.
While the Jags are not inside the top-12 in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, that can be explained by the fact that they've faced the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans (without A.J. Brown). In Week 5, Jacksonville allowed Brandin Cooks, who was fresh off a goose-egg, to drop 161 yards and a touchdown.
Golladay had 6 games with 117 or more yards in his last 18 contests prior to 2020, and a number like that is certainly achievable here. Golladay has also scored at least once in 11 of his last 18 contests, and the Jags allowed both Cooks and Will Fuller to reach the end zone last week. This is a smash spot for Golladay.
5. Irv Smith Jr. Finishes as a Top-8 Tight End
Looking for a streamer or value at tight end on the Week 6 main slate? Look no further than Irv Smith Jr. ($4,300). Is this a dart throw? Well, Smith has scored 1.6 or fewer half-PPR points in four of his five games this season. So yeah, I'd say so.
Last week, Irv totaled a career-high 64 receiving yards in a game where he saw a season-high 68% snap share. If he can see five (or more targets again), he could absolutely smash by 2020 tight end standards. Why, you might ask? Because His matchup with the Atlanta Falcons is as titillating as it gets. The Falcons didn't allow a single reception to Carolina Panthers' tight ends in Week 5, and yet they have still allowed the most fantasy points to the position. That's how bad they've been.
The corpses of Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham managed 10.4 and 21.0 half-PPR points, respectively, and they also allowed 19.3 and 30.8 to Dalton Schultz and Robert "Baby Kittle" Tonyan. For some perspective, Olsen's 10.4 half-PPR points would have ranked inside the top-eight at the position in two of the five weeks this season. That's how much of a crapshoot tight end has been. Slot Smith into some lineups in Week 6 and reap the rewards.