Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 6
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
25+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lamar Jackson | $9,000 | 23.0 | 2.55 | 17.1 | 28.2 | 40.6% | 1.08 |
Deshaun Watson | $8,200 | 20.6 | 2.51 | 14.6 | 26.0 | 29.1% | 1.01 |
Matthew Stafford | $7,300 | 20.5 | 2.81 | 14.9 | 26.0 | 28.6% | 1.81 |
Gardner Minshew | $7,200 | 20.5 | 2.84 | 14.5 | 25.8 | 28.9% | 1.81 |
Ryan Tannehill | $7,300 | 19.3 | 2.64 | 13.8 | 24.8 | 24.3% | 1.31 |
Aaron Rodgers | $8,400 | 19.2 | 2.29 | 14.0 | 24.4 | 22.1% | 0.57 |
Cam Newton | $8,000 | 19.1 | 2.39 | 14.1 | 24.9 | 25.0% | 0.87 |
Kirk Cousins | $7,100 | 18.8 | 2.65 | 13.9 | 24.3 | 22.1% | 1.43 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,400 | 18.8 | 2.54 | 13.7 | 24.0 | 20.8% | 1.10 |
Ben Roethlisberger | $7,600 | 18.3 | 2.40 | 12.6 | 23.9 | 21.2% | 0.88 |
Tom Brady | $7,500 | 18.0 | 2.40 | 12.7 | 24.2 | 21.5% | 0.89 |
Matt Ryan | $7,400 | 17.8 | 2.40 | 12.0 | 23.0 | 18.1% | 0.77 |
Daniel Jones | $6,700 | 16.9 | 2.53 | 12.0 | 22.8 | 17.5% | 1.15 |
Joe Burrow | $7,100 | 16.4 | 2.31 | 11.2 | 21.5 | 12.8% | 0.66 |
Carson Wentz | $7,000 | 16.3 | 2.33 | 11.2 | 21.5 | 13.3% | 0.72 |
Philip Rivers | $6,800 | 16.2 | 2.38 | 10.9 | 21.3 | 13.6% | 0.76 |
Teddy Bridgewater | $6,900 | 15.7 | 2.28 | 10.6 | 21.4 | 13.6% | 0.72 |
Baker Mayfield | $7,000 | 15.4 | 2.20 | 9.8 | 20.5 | 9.1% | 0.52 |
Joe Flacco | $6,500 | 14.4 | 2.21 | 9.3 | 19.2 | 7.3% | 0.56 |
Kyle Allen | $6,400 | 14.3 | 2.24 | 9.5 | 19.0 | 6.5% | 0.57 |
Nick Foles | $6,900 | 14.3 | 2.07 | 9.5 | 19.7 | 8.4% | 0.45 |
Observations:
Quarterback, like most positions this week, isn't full of locks. Lamar Jackson does stand out from a median projection, but the salary will cost you. He's very much in play, due to the value at running back, however.
Plenty of other quarterbacks have 75th-percentile outcomes north of 20, per usual, because that's how quarterback works.
The best floor/ceiling ratings belong to passers going up against one another: Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew. For my money, Stafford is the guy, as I discussed on this week's Heat Check podcast.
It's a really good week to differentiate at quarterback when multi-entering tournaments, due to the uncertainty.
Running Back
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
20+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Henry | $9,000 | 18.6 | 2.07 | 12.5 | 24.7 | 44.1% | 1.87 |
Kareem Hunt | $7,000 | 17.6 | 2.52 | 12.0 | 22.9 | 38.5% | 3.40 |
Aaron Jones | $8,500 | 17.3 | 2.04 | 11.8 | 22.8 | 37.2% | 1.68 |
Alexander Mattison | $7,000 | 17.3 | 2.47 | 11.3 | 22.6 | 36.8% | 2.91 |
Jonathan Taylor | $7,300 | 16.4 | 2.25 | 10.7 | 22.2 | 33.4% | 2.24 |
James Robinson | $6,500 | 16.0 | 2.46 | 10.6 | 22.0 | 32.7% | 2.79 |
Mike Davis | $7,500 | 15.8 | 2.11 | 10.3 | 21.2 | 30.8% | 1.94 |
Miles Sanders | $7,600 | 15.1 | 1.98 | 9.5 | 21.0 | 29.3% | 1.42 |
James Conner | $7,100 | 14.7 | 2.07 | 9.2 | 19.8 | 24.5% | 1.67 |
Joe Mixon | $6,900 | 14.5 | 2.10 | 9.5 | 19.4 | 22.7% | 1.94 |
Myles Gaskin | $5,700 | 14.5 | 2.54 | 8.7 | 19.2 | 21.2% | 2.59 |
Ronald Jones | $5,800 | 13.6 | 2.34 | 8.1 | 18.3 | 19.5% | 2.17 |
Antonio Gibson | $5,800 | 13.5 | 2.33 | 8.1 | 19.0 | 21.4% | 2.08 |
David Montgomery | $5,900 | 13.4 | 2.28 | 8.1 | 18.6 | 20.6% | 2.02 |
Todd Gurley | $6,800 | 13.3 | 1.95 | 8.0 | 19.1 | 21.7% | 1.40 |
David Johnson | $6,400 | 12.6 | 1.97 | 7.7 | 18.4 | 19.3% | 1.38 |
Melvin Gordon | $6,600 | 11.7 | 1.77 | 6.8 | 16.5 | 12.0% | 1.09 |
Devonta Freeman | $5,600 | 11.2 | 1.99 | 6.6 | 15.8 | 12.1% | 1.48 |
Adrian Peterson | $5,500 | 10.3 | 1.87 | 5.4 | 14.9 | 7.1% | 1.16 |
Mark Ingram | $6,000 | 9.0 | 1.49 | 4.6 | 13.2 | 3.6% | 0.63 |
Frank Gore | $5,000 | 8.5 | 1.71 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 3.9% | 0.96 |
Nyheim Hines | $5,000 | 8.4 | 1.68 | 4.4 | 11.9 | 2.1% | 0.84 |
James White | $5,200 | 8.0 | 1.54 | 4.3 | 11.8 | 1.9% | 0.66 |
Damien Harris | $5,600 | 7.8 | 1.39 | 3.7 | 11.4 | 1.0% | 0.48 |
Jamaal Williams | $5,200 | 7.3 | 1.41 | 3.5 | 11.2 | 1.6% | 0.58 |
Phillip Lindsay | $5,100 | 6.7 | 1.31 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 0.6% | 0.41 |
Rex Burkhead | $5,600 | 6.7 | 1.19 | 3.3 | 10.2 | 0.5% | 0.30 |
D'Andre Swift | $5,400 | 6.5 | 1.21 | 3.3 | 9.8 | 0.3% | 0.31 |
J.D. McKissic | $5,000 | 6.5 | 1.29 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 0.1% | 0.39 |
La'Mical Perine | $4,600 | 6.4 | 1.38 | 2.9 | 9.6 | 0.1% | 0.52 |
Chris Thompson | $4,600 | 6.2 | 1.34 | 2.8 | 9.2 | 0.3% | 0.44 |
Observations:
Value backs float to the top here in terms of floor/ceiling rating because the only two high-salaried backs -- Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones -- are in difficult matchups. numberFire's projections love Kareem Hunt despite his tough matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jones gets enough pass-game work to be viable, but Henry still remains a rush-only option, so I'm mostly out on him for the week.
For me, it's Alexander Mattison or Mike Davis at the top of the list as the salary-considered RB1, and the sims love Mattison more.
Between James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, and David Montgomery at low salaries, we don't have to (and really can't) go too hard at running back like usual at the top end. With these savings, we can look to roster better quarterbacks, receivers, and defenses.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
20+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Davante Adams | $9,000 | 16.3 | 1.82 | 11.6 | 21.5 | 31.7% | 1.25 |
Calvin Ridley | $8,600 | 15.6 | 1.81 | 9.6 | 20.6 | 28.5% | 1.10 |
Adam Thielen | $7,400 | 15.6 | 2.11 | 10.7 | 20.9 | 28.8% | 2.02 |
Kenny Golladay | $7,200 | 13.7 | 1.90 | 8.4 | 19.5 | 23.8% | 1.35 |
Allen Robinson | $7,000 | 13.3 | 1.90 | 7.7 | 18.6 | 20.3% | 1.28 |
Terry McLaurin | $6,900 | 13.2 | 1.92 | 7.8 | 18.9 | 20.4% | 1.33 |
A.J. Brown | $6,500 | 12.9 | 1.98 | 7.8 | 18.6 | 20.0% | 1.44 |
Mike Evans | $7,600 | 12.9 | 1.69 | 7.5 | 18.0 | 17.8% | 0.88 |
Robby Anderson | $6,500 | 12.5 | 1.93 | 6.9 | 18.0 | 19.6% | 1.31 |
Jamison Crowder | $6,600 | 12.1 | 1.83 | 6.9 | 17.3 | 16.2% | 1.19 |
Tyler Boyd | $6,100 | 11.8 | 1.93 | 6.5 | 16.8 | 15.1% | 1.31 |
Marquise Brown | $6,300 | 11.8 | 1.87 | 4.5 | 18.1 | 19.2% | 1.11 |
Odell Beckham | $6,700 | 11.7 | 1.75 | 6.1 | 17.4 | 14.8% | 1.01 |
Justin Jefferson | $5,900 | 11.3 | 1.92 | 5.7 | 16.7 | 13.9% | 1.23 |
Will Fuller | $6,700 | 11.2 | 1.68 | 5.3 | 17.6 | 17.5% | 0.94 |
DeVante Parker | $6,400 | 11.2 | 1.75 | 4.7 | 16.9 | 15.2% | 1.00 |
D.J. Moore | $6,800 | 11.1 | 1.63 | 5.0 | 17.1 | 15.1% | 0.84 |
D.J. Chark | $6,600 | 10.8 | 1.64 | 5.7 | 16.0 | 10.2% | 0.82 |
T.Y. Hilton | $5,800 | 10.8 | 1.86 | 5.3 | 15.7 | 11.8% | 1.16 |
Julian Edelman | $6,200 | 10.8 | 1.74 | 5.8 | 15.9 | 10.6% | 0.94 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | $7,100 | 10.4 | 1.46 | 5.2 | 15.6 | 10.3% | 0.60 |
Tee Higgins | $5,500 | 10.1 | 1.83 | 4.1 | 16.5 | 14.4% | 1.12 |
Darius Slayton | $6,000 | 10.0 | 1.67 | 4.8 | 14.9 | 10.4% | 0.90 |
Brandin Cooks | $5,700 | 9.9 | 1.74 | 5.0 | 14.6 | 7.6% | 1.02 |
Chase Claypool | $5,500 | 9.8 | 1.77 | 4.6 | 14.6 | 8.4% | 1.04 |
Jarvis Landry | $5,600 | 9.4 | 1.68 | 4.3 | 14.1 | 6.8% | 0.91 |
Jerry Jeudy | $5,700 | 9.4 | 1.64 | 4.6 | 14.7 | 7.8% | 0.89 |
Laviska Shenault | $5,800 | 9.2 | 1.58 | 4.1 | 14.2 | 6.8% | 0.79 |
Golden Tate | $5,400 | 8.8 | 1.63 | 4.1 | 13.3 | 5.6% | 0.83 |
Tim Patrick | $5,400 | 8.4 | 1.55 | 3.8 | 12.4 | 4.3% | 0.72 |
Marvin Jones | $5,800 | 8.2 | 1.41 | 2.6 | 13.7 | 8.8% | 0.64 |
Curtis Samuel | $5,100 | 8.2 | 1.60 | 3.6 | 13.2 | 3.6% | 0.85 |
Danny Amendola | $4,900 | 8.1 | 1.66 | 3.4 | 12.7 | 4.9% | 0.88 |
N'Keal Harry | $5,400 | 8.1 | 1.51 | 3.8 | 12.9 | 5.6% | 0.73 |
Preston Williams | $5,400 | 8.0 | 1.49 | 3.6 | 12.9 | 3.2% | 0.69 |
James Washington | $4,800 | 7.7 | 1.61 | 3.3 | 12.4 | 3.6% | 0.87 |
Damiere Byrd | $5,100 | 7.7 | 1.51 | 2.9 | 12.3 | 2.8% | 0.72 |
Breshad Perriman | $5,000 | 7.6 | 1.53 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 3.3% | 0.72 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | $4,700 | 7.5 | 1.60 | 3.4 | 11.4 | 2.4% | 0.80 |
Travis Fulgham | $5,300 | 7.5 | 1.41 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 2.9% | 0.58 |
Zach Pascal | $5,100 | 7.3 | 1.44 | 2.9 | 11.3 | 2.0% | 0.62 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,600 | 7.2 | 1.29 | 3.3 | 11.5 | 2.9% | 0.47 |
Randall Cobb | $5,100 | 7.1 | 1.39 | 3.0 | 11.5 | 2.2% | 0.58 |
Observations:
Receiver is also a little thin at the top, but with Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, Adam Thielen, and Kenny Golladay rating out well, I'm tempted to lean toward a receiver-heavy build.
Perhaps more realistically, a balanced build revolving around some combination of Mattison, Hunt, Thielen, Golladay, A.J. Brown, and Robby Anderson seems like an easy sell for Week 6 primary builds.
The best odds to go for 20-plus FanDuel points among wideouts below a $6,500 salary belong to Marquise Brown, DeVante Parker, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Justin Jefferson.
Tight End
Simulation Results
Player | FanDuel Salary |
Median FDP |
Value | 25th Pct |
75th Pct |
15+ FDP% |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mark Andrews | $7,600 | 11.5 | 1.51 | 5.7 | 16.5 | 31.1% | 0.61 |
Jonnu Smith | $5,800 | 11.0 | 1.90 | 6.9 | 15.3 | 26.8% | 1.33 |
Zach Ertz | $6,000 | 10.1 | 1.69 | 5.8 | 14.2 | 20.3% | 0.89 |
Evan Engram | $5,600 | 9.0 | 1.60 | 4.5 | 12.9 | 15.4% | 0.77 |
T.J. Hockenson | $5,700 | 8.8 | 1.54 | 4.6 | 12.3 | 14.3% | 0.66 |
Michael Gesicki | $5,600 | 8.1 | 1.44 | 3.9 | 12.1 | 12.8% | 0.57 |
Austin Hooper | $5,200 | 7.9 | 1.51 | 3.6 | 11.9 | 11.4% | 0.66 |
Eric Ebron | $5,200 | 7.5 | 1.45 | 3.6 | 11.6 | 10.3% | 0.58 |
Robert Tonyan | $6,200 | 7.1 | 1.15 | 3.5 | 10.6 | 7.4% | 0.24 |
Trey Burton | $4,700 | 7.1 | 1.50 | 3.4 | 10.5 | 5.5% | 0.64 |
Rob Gronkowski | $5,000 | 6.8 | 1.36 | 2.7 | 10.4 | 5.8% | 0.49 |
Hayden Hurst | $5,400 | 6.8 | 1.26 | 3.2 | 10.6 | 7.1% | 0.41 |
Tyler Eifert | $4,500 | 6.1 | 1.35 | 3.0 | 9.7 | 4.1% | 0.54 |
Logan Thomas | $4,800 | 6.0 | 1.26 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 4.4% | 0.40 |
Jimmy Graham | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.06 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 3.8% | 0.24 |
Darren Fells | $5,100 | 5.4 | 1.06 | 2.4 | 8.4 | 1.2% | 0.19 |
Chris Herndon | $4,700 | 5.3 | 1.12 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 0.9% | 0.29 |
Irv Smith Jr. | $4,300 | 5.1 | 1.19 | 2.1 | 8.0 | 1.1% | 0.34 |
Ian Thomas | $4,600 | 4.8 | 1.05 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 0.4% | 0.22 |
Kyle Rudolph | $4,500 | 4.7 | 1.05 | 1.9 | 7.4 | 0.4% | 0.21 |
Jack Doyle | $4,900 | 4.7 | 0.95 | 2.0 | 7.5 | 0.4% | 0.15 |
Noah Fant | $5,800 | 4.5 | 0.78 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 0.1% | 0.02 |
Observations:
Tight end is awful this week. Like, really bad. At the salary, Mark Andrews doesn't really do enough to separate himself from everyone else based on numberFire's projections. The ceiling still is a little tough to match, but Andrews has had two games with only three targets. The floor isn't just quite what it needs to be to prioritize Andrews at the expense of better backs and receivers.
Jonnu Smith and Zach Ertz are the next-best median outcome owners before a pretty significant and quick drop off. Jonnu really stands out at the salary and in such a good game environment.
Because I hate Ertz's peripherals, Mike Gesicki and T.J. Hockenson are top-four options, to me, based on everything along with Smith and Andrews.