NFL Weather Report: Week 6

We were supposed to be watching football last night. The news of Le'Veon Bell signing with the Kansas City Chiefs gave the fantasy community something to talk about, but the void was noticeable. Normally, we’d have a game to analyze or fantasy scores to parse as we head into the weekend.

The positive spin is that we have time to adjust to information without sacrificing roster spots. Friday practice reports and injury updates will be critical. Hopefully, we can avoid any additional rescheduled games due to the pandemic this weekend. Regardless, we’ve got time to dig deeper into the matchups headed our way and what they mean for our squads.

Week 6 sets up similarly to Week 5. The overall forecast is generally clear with all three of the Florida games carrying the most concern. While the risk is minor, I broke down the games most affected by the elements and any adjustments we’ll need to make ahead of Sunday.


Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 6:

Game Temperature (Feels Like) Chance of Precipitation Wind
Packers at Buccaneers 87 18.0% 15 mph ENE
Jets at Dolphins 88 50.0% 15 mph ENE
Lions at Jaguars 83 12.0% 13 mph ENE

Games Impacted by Wind

Green Bay Packers (28.5-implied point total) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.5)

New York Jets (18.5) at Miami Dolphins (28.5)

Detroit Lions (28.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (25.5)

The obvious bad news is that we have two games that meet our minimum criteria for at least discussing the weather’s impact. I included the Lions-Jaguars game for completeness, as the storm pattern will be passing through most of the state at the same time. Southern cities (Tampa Bay, Miami) will see slightly increased winds, with Miami (the farthest south) also getting some light rain. However, the Tampa and Miami games carry minimal risk given their stadium construction.

We’ve discussed the Dolphins’ and Buccaneers’ stadiums before. Back in Week 2, Tampa Bay was expected to see 18-mph winds during their game against the Panthers. Historical observations show wind speeds had dropped to 14 mph with 23-mph gusts, but we would’ve never noticed.

The Buccaneers’ stadium is 177 feet tall and shields most of the wind observed down at field level. Even earlier in the season, the only noticeable effects were the small movements from the goal post directional flags seen during field goals. While neither quarterback played particularly well, neither passing game was affected, as the game featured 77 pass attempts at 7.0 and 7.4 passing aDOTs, respectively.

Hard Rock Stadium stands at 188 feet and will provide similar protection. We can plan for each game to have little interference from the wind given the current conditions. However, fantasy managers should monitor the weather Sunday morning to confirm that the forecast hasn’t gotten worse.

Games Impacted by Rain

New York Jets (18.5-implied point total) at Miami Dolphins (28.5)

No, unfortunately, it’s not a typo. Miami is expected to see both rain and wind Sunday afternoon. The rain isn’t a major concern, but we’ll consult our reference table to confirm.

Condition Precipitation (inches per hour)
Light Rain .01 - .1
Moderate .1 - .3
Heavy Rain >= .3

The forecast is projecting a maximum of 0.04 inches per hour in Miami. For context, the Week 5 game between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks had similar projections. Rainfall at this rate becomes visible during the game’s broadcast, making the on-field conditions seem much worse. Seattle’s game provided an example of the best-case scenario. Neither offense was affected, as both quarterbacks were at or above their seasonal passing attempts, and the game was one point from meeting its projected total of 54 points.

The only concern would involve unpredictable events. Slips on the grass, a bobbled pass that turns into an interception, or a fumble are all possible given the degraded surface. However, the rainfall is expected to decrease over the course of the game, reducing our concern for any fantasy plays associated with this contest.