Tuesday Night Football Betting Preview: Will the Titans Beat the Bills and Remain Undefeated?
Week 5 continues on into Tuesday for a matchup between two unbeaten teams. The Tennessee Titans are a perfect 3-0 and take on the 4-0 Buffalo Bills.
Injuries could be a big factor for tonight. The Titans' pass-catching depth chart is potentially very thin with Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, and Cameron Batson on the COVID list. The better news is that stud receiver A.J. Brown and tackle Taylor Lewan will play. For the Bills, Zack Moss and John Brown are questionable.
Given everything, the oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook favor the Bills by 3.5 points.
Do our algorithms agree? What about the over/under? Let's dive into the matchup and see where the value lies.
Overview
We're dealing with two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL through Week 4, as Josh Allen has averaged 0.48 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, more than three times the NFL average through Monday's games (0.15). Ryan Tannehill is at 0.30 through his three games. Adjusted for opponents, both offenses are top-11 overall, and the Bills are the top passing offense and a top-three overall offense -- despite ranking 31st in rushing efficiency.
| numberFire Ranks | Total Offense | Passing Offense | Rushing Offense | Total Defense | Passing Defense | Rushing Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 22 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 23 |
You can also see that neither team is particularly strong defensively, both ranking bottom-nine in overall adjusted defense.
Despite the good offenses and weak defenses, our algorithm views the under on a total of 51.5 as more likely to occur (58.9%) than the over. In fact, in 13 of the 15 most comparable games to this one, historically, the under hit.
The strongest bet is actually the Titans +3.5, which our model views as a four-star bet out of five. Why? Well, it sees the Titans winning this game outright 54.2% of the time. Overall, they're our 12th-ranked team with the Bills slotting in 10th, based on advanced underlying stats.
Same Game Parlay Option
Leg 1: Titans +3.5
Leg 2: Derrick Henry Over 99.5 Rushing Yards
Leg 3: Dawson Knox Under 21.5 Receiving Yards
The first two go hand-in-hand, and if the Titans cover and keep it close, then Derrick Henry should be a focal point. He has averaged 27.3 rushing attempts through three games, and with Darrynton Evans back and healthy last week, the rookie played just eight snaps. Henry has yet to see fewer than 25 carries and has had single-game rushing totals of 116, 84, and 119 yards. Again, the Bills are just 22nd in adjusted rushing defense, per numberFire's metrics through Week 4. Though numberFire projects him at 93.9 rushing yards, that's on 20.3 carries. If we're getting the first leg of this to hit, Henry should see elevated carries and churn out 100 yards.
The Knox bring-back is based on the fact that he returned in Week 4 to play just 47.5% of the snaps and split time with Tyler Kroft (32.8% of the snaps). Knox has had 3 targets in each game for 16, 26, and 38 yards but has run only 41.7% of the team's pass routes. He's more of a red-zone threat than a downfield threat, so this is a good multiplier option for Same Game Parlays.
