4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 5
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 5 lineups.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Projected Points: 20.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.41
There are a number of solid low-cost options at quarterback, but whether you're rolling out cash or tournament lineups Teddy Bridgewater is a wise choice. On Sunday his Carolina Panthers are on the road in the dome against the Atlanta Falcons, who have just been decimated by opposing quarterbacks this season.
According to our rankings, the Falcons are 29th in pass defense, allowing 35.5 DraftKings points per game -- 3.9 more than any other team through four weeks. Exactly 48% of those points have come from yardage alone, as Atlanta has allowed four 300-yard pass games and one (to Dak Prescott) beyond 400 through the air. If Bridgewater reaches that 300-yard plateau he is guaranteed at least 15 points barring turnovers.
Think of that as Bridgewater's floor. Carolina is on the road but as mere 1.5-point underdogs, they carry an implied total of 26.5 points. That puts the signal-caller in a great spot with a good chance of one to three scores. Bridgewater is our seventh-best point-per-dollar play at the position.
Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
DraftKings Price: $4,100
Projected Points: 9.8
Projected Value: 2.39
After a two-week absence, Duke Johnson returned to the field and was much more involved for the Houston Texans' struggling offense. In the narrow loss, the scat back produced 45 total yards on 9 opportunities (5 carries and 4 targets), all while logging 38% of the snaps. That is an increase of 14% from Week 1, and with changes coming to Houston we could see him get even more run against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Head coach and general manager Bill O'Brien was fired following the club's 0-4 start, meaning Romeo Crennel will take over as interim coach, with Tim Kelly back to play-calling duties. We don't know what this will do to the offensive scheme, but Kelly talked up Duke in the lead-up to the 2020 campaign. Even if his carries remain in the single digits there's a chance the receiving specialist has more designed plays out of the backfield, especially with Houston struggling in the protection department.
Johnson has even more appeal because of the matchup. Against Jacksonville, the oddsmakers have Houston down for 30.5 points as 6.5-point favorites. That favors the running game by nature, but short passes can serve as an extension of the run, meaning more Duke in some way, shape or form. He's definitely someone to consider at his price point.
Laviska Shenault, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings Price: $4,500
Projected Points: 10.0
Projected Value: 2.22
In that same game as Johnson, Laviska Shenault should also benefit from the slate's second-highest over/under at 54.5 points. While Houston is expected to put up the points the Jags have a healthy 24-point total against a defense that has been far short of spectacular to this point.
By our math, the Texans are 31st overall and 28th against the pass. They have allowed four of seven receiving touchdowns to wideouts, and one more to backs. Shenault, a rookie Swiss army knife of sorts, has operated and excelled in both spots. In addition to his 41.1 DK points via receptions, he has turned 9 rushes into another 5.3 points. And to boot, both his routes and hype are on the rise.
Shenault is a great choice, particularly in the shadow of D.J. Chark's big Week 4. At a $2,000 discount, he is likely to see a lower roster percentage than his teammate in the same fantasy-friendly matchup. You could also look to Darius Slayton at a slightly higher tag ($4,800) against the Dallas Cowboys.
Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
DraftKings Price: $4,000
Projected Points: 8.9
Projected Value: 2.23
Jonnu Smith is just under our threshold and in a peachy spot, but there is a chance -- with added positive tests -- the Tennessee Titans' Week 5 game is either pushed or postponed once again. That forces us elsewhere, so why not save another $900 and target Eric Ebron in the battle of Pennsylvania.
Although teams like the Saints, Browns, and Falcons draw all the attention for opposing tight ends, the Eagles are no tough match. As part of the five receiving scores they have given up to the position, George Kittle scored once in his dynamite game against them last week. One big reason for that is Jalen Mills' move from safety to corner for that game, during which Marcus Epps and K'Von Wallace manned his usual safety spot, often taking on the task of corralling Kittle. They did not fare well, nor did Philly's defense in general.
Ebron is a big body in the red zone, but he was involved all over the field in the Steelers' last game. His snap share was above 77% for a second straight game, and -- according to Player Profiler -- his 31 routes and 63 air yards constituted season-highs. Well-rested and well-positioned for success, Ebron should thrive as a home favorite.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.