NFL

2020 NFL Power Rankings: Week 5

We got an abundance of points in Dallas; Joe Burrow got his first win (thanks, Joe Mixon); and the Atlanta Falcons realized they can’t blow a lead they never had.

Let’s see how this past week’s action shook up our rankings.

Risers and Fallers

The San Francisco 49ers plummeted -- by eight spots in our rankings and by 6.08 points in their nERD rating. The latter is the largest drop we’ve seen so far this season.

Nick Mullens posted the fourth-lowest Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) total for Week 4 at -7.91. He also threw one of the worst interceptions of the season, leading to his replacement by C.J. Beathard.

Tampa Bay and New Orleans each rose six spots in our rankings, settling in this week at third and seventh, respectively. Brady tossed a bad interception that was returned for a touchdown, but he quickly rebounded with five touchdowns and a Passing NEP total of 16.85.The Saints found themselves down 14 points against the Lions within 5 minutes after kickoff, but they came roaring back by scoring 35 unanswered points before two garbage time touchdowns by the Lions. Latavius Murray was tops in the league in Rushing NEP per attempt (0.56) in Week 4.

Here are our Week 5 Power Rankings:

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

Rank Team nERD Record Playoff Odds Rank Change Off. NEP Rank Def. NEP Rank
32 New York Jets -7.89 0-4 0.40% 0 32 26
31 Cincinnati Bengals -6.92 1-2-1 2.90% -4 24 28
30 Jacksonville Jaguars -5.77 1-3 3.60% -1 14 32
29 New York Giants -5.52 0-4 4.90% 2 31 13
28 Detroit Lions -4.7 1-3 13.70% 0 23 27
27 Washington Football Team -4.39 1-3 14.10% -5 29 7
26 Houston Texans -3.24 0-4 8.70% 4 16 31
25 Atlanta Falcons -3.16 0-4 3.30% -4 27 22
24 Philadelphia Eagles -3.07 1-2-1 40.90% 1 30 19
23 Denver Broncos -2.97 1-3 6.00% 3 28 14


The Houston Texans, coming in at 26th in our rankings, finally gave Bill O'Brien the axe.

After losing three games against the best competition in the AFC in the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers, O’Brien needed a win against the Minnesota Vikings. Lesson: when you’re the general manager and head coach of a winless team, maybe doing more isn’t the answer. O’Brien got more involved in the offensive play calls this past week, and it didn’t work out. Now there's news of a "heated exchange" between O'Brien and J.J. Watt.

The Eagles have had a rough start to the season, but things may be starting to look up in Philly after they pulled off an upset against the (albeit depleted) 49ers.

Carson Wentz is no longer at the bottom of the Total Passing NEP rankings -- the throne now belongs to Sam Darnold (who is out this week due to injury). Miles Sanders now ranks third in Rushing Success Rate (56.9%) among players with at least 35 carries.

This week the Eagles travel to Pittsburgh and face a team fresh off an unplanned bye. Wentz is hoping to secure another upset, this time against a Steelers defense that is pressuring quarterbacks on an astounding 46.5% of drop backs. That is tops in the league by almost 15%. (New England is second at 31.7%.)

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

Rank Team nERD Record Playoff Odds Rank Change Off. NEP Rank Def. NEP Rank
22 Miami Dolphins -2.74 1-3 11.40% 1 21 9
21 Chicago Bears -2.39 3-1 34.90% -7 25 17
20 Carolina Panthers -1.77 2-2 25.50% 4 8 15
19 Las Vegas Raiders -1.54 2-2 26.90% 0 11 23
18 Cleveland Browns -1.25 3-1 47.50% 2 5 30
17 Arizona Cardinals -1.23 2-2 24.40% -1 9 21
16 Dallas Cowboys -0.48 1-3 54.70% -1 13 29
15 Los Angeles Chargers 0.92 1-3 30.50% 1 20 6
14 Minnesota Vikings 1.11 1-3 32.30% 4 12 16
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.12 3-0 78.70% -7 22 8


The Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns put on a show Sunday with a whopping 87 total points scored. Per Stathead Football, it was the first-ever game where one team rushed for more than 300 yards and the other passed for more than 450.

The Browns (ranked 18th this week) have seen an increase in their Adjusted Offensive NEP per play each week, and no team had a larger Week 1 to Week 4 increase than Cleveland at 0.26.

Who is on the other side of the coin? The Jacksonville Jaguars started out hot in an upset victory against the Indianapolis Colts only to have their Adjusted Offensive NEP per play steadily drop by 0.25 through Week 4.

Dallas sits in the middle of our rankings at 16th. Despite a 1-3 record, numberFire still gives them a 49.2% chance of winning their division (54.7% overall to make the playoffs) since, well, the NFC East has a total of three wins after four weeks.

The Colts and Steelers will test the Browns’ offense these next two weeks -- specifically their run game. Indianapolis ranks first overall in Defensive NEP and 4th in Defensive Rushing NEP; on the latter, Pittsburgh ranks 3rd.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

Rank Team nERD Record Playoff Odds Rank Change Off. NEP Rank Def. NEP Rank
12 Tennessee Titans 1.23 3-0 71.60% 0 17 12
11 Seattle Seahawks 1.59 4-0 92.50% 0 4 24
10 Buffalo Bills 2.05 4-0 76.10% 0 3 25
9 San Francisco 49ers 2.57 2-2 40.80% -8 18 11
8 Indianapolis Colts 2.68 3-1 71.10% -1 26 1
7 New Orleans Saints 2.79 2-2 74.20% 6 7 20
6 Los Angeles Rams 2.83 3-1 69.90% -1 6 10
5 Green Bay Packers 3.88 4-0 93.80% 3 1 18
4 New England Patriots 4.54 2-2 73.60% 0 19 4
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.81 3-1 80.10% 6 15 2
2 Baltimore Ravens 7.27 3-1 92.40% 1 10 3
1 Kansas City Chiefs 8.92 4-0 98.60% 1 2 5


Two teams have separated themselves from the pack, and they are who you might suspect…

Second in our rankings are the Ravens after a dominant win over the Washington Football Team. They carry a nERD rating of 7.27 (2.46 points ahead of third-ranked Tampa Bay).

The Chiefs sit atop our rankings for the first time this season. Last week’s win over the New England Patriots was fueled by KC's defense with four total takeaways. Overall, their defense ranks fifth in Total Defensive NEP and first in Defensive Passing NEP. But they rank 31st in Defensive Rushing NEP -- a flaw that the Las Vegas Raiders and Josh Jacobs will be looking to exploit this week.