The 20 Best Offensive Players From Week 4
As you know, we like math here at numberFire. Our algorithms help tell a better story about sports -- they're able to dig through the nonsense, helping us look at things that matter on the court, field or rink.
With football, we love our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the number of points a player adds (or loses) to his team versus what he's expected to add. Rather than counting statistics like yards, touchdowns and receptions, NEP looks at down-and-distance situations and field position and relates these instances to history. When a player outperforms what's happened in the past, he sees a positive expected points value on the play. When he doesn't, his expected points value gained on the play is negative. All of these little instances add up, then, to be a player's Net Expected Points total.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
Using a formula that compares individual single-game performance to history, the numberFire Live platform takes this Net Expected Points formula and assigns a rating to a player's performance. Each week, that's what we'll show here -- the 20 best ratings.
Here are Week 4's results:
- George Kittle dominated the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football, and though he and the San Francisco 49ers didn't win, Kittle tallied 183 yards, 49 more than any other player through Sunday's Week 4 games.
- Joe Mixon's touchdown regression hit hard in Week 4. Coming into the game, he had 222 total yards but no scores. In Week 4 alone, he totaled 181 yards and 3 touchdowns in a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Latavius Murray stole two touchdowns from Alvin Kamara, sure, but he totaled 14 overall carries against the Detroit Lions in the New Orleans Saints' win. Murray increased the Saints' expected scoring on 10 of his 14 carries for an elite 71.4% Rushing Success Rate.
- Antonio Gibson had a poor game by yards per carry (3.54 yards per tote on 13 carries) but was super efficient from an expected points standpoint: 61.5% Rushing Success Rate and 0.19 Rushing NEP per carry. Gibson also added 82 yards on 5 carries for 6.81 Reception NEP.
- Odell Beckham had a wild Week 4 with 81 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 targets in the Cleveland Browns' win over the Dallas Cowboys. More important from an in-game impact, he iced the win with a massive end-around touchdown and had 73 rushing yards on 2 carries, good for one of the five best games of Week 4.