4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 4
On the Week 4 FanDuel main slate, there are 10 games with an over/under of at least 47.5 points, which makes for some nice team and games stacks across the league. There are also 11 teams implied to score at least 26.0 points this week, which should lead to some high-scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player draft percentage projections.
Update: The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots game has been postponed and is expected to be played on Monday or Tuesday. Cam Newton has tested positive for COVID-19 and will not play this week.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson ($9,000) and D.K. Metcalf ($6,900)
When Russ is cooking, you have to be considering him in your FanDuel lineups week in and week out, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing to start the 2020 season. In fact, he now holds the record for the most touchdown passes (14) through the first three games of the season.
While Wilson will likely be very popular in lineups this week, it’s for all the right reasons. The Seattle Seahawks have a 30.25 implied point total in Week 4, which is the third highest on this week’s main slate. They’re playing the Miami Dolphins, who have allowed the fourth most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks to start the season. Russ is averaging 34.33 FanDuel points per game through the first three weeks and has yet another great matchup to reach or go above that number.
Per our algorithm, no other quarterback is projected to throw for more touchdowns this week as we forecast him for 2.63 passing touchdowns. His ceiling, however, as we’ve all seen, is far above that. Russ has thrown at least four touchdown passes in each of his first three games, and I think he expands on that again this week against a poor Dolphins secondary.
His top two wide receivers, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett certainly make Wilson’s job a lot easier -- and that’s not taking anything away from him. That’s why I like stacking up Wilson with Metcalf this week. While I think Lockett is a great stacking partner, as well, you get Metcalf at a $600 discount compared to Lockett, and the two have very similar upside in this matchup.
DK offers the second best point-per-dollar value at the wide receiver position this week, per our numbers.
Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield ($7,000) and Odell Beckham ($6,600)
It’s been a while since I’ve talked about the Cleveland Browns, but I think this is a good week to stack them due to the game script involved against the Dallas Cowboys, as the Browns will likely be playing from behind in this game. But this matchup is also very intriguing for the Browns' passing game, as the Dallas secondary has been rather pathetic to start this season.
The Cowboys have allowed the third most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks this season as well as the second most to opposing wide receivers, per Pro Football Reference. This is a perfect spot for Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. to put on the show that everyone has been waiting for since OBJ was traded to the Browns.
Now, Baker’s numbers to start the season may turn a lot of people away from rostering him this week. The quarterback has had only 46 total pass attempts in his last two games, as the Browns were able to get the running game going in those matchups. However, that came against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Washington Football Team, two teams that never held the lead against the Browns outside of the first quarter. That likely won’t happen against a Cowboys team that is averaging close to 30 points per game to start this season.
Per our projections, Baker is expected to throw the ball 35 times against the Cowboys, a big uptick from his previous two games. And, per PlayerProfiler, OBJ has seen 28.2% of the teams targets this season and 42.5% of the teams air yards -- which ranks as the sixth most across the entire league.
OBJ has been able to create an average of 3.4 yards of separation on his routes this season, and he shouldn’t have any problem doing that again this week against a susceptible Cowboys secondary.
We currently have OBJ projected to have a top-10 fantasy performance for wide receivers this week, and he offers the fourth best point-per-dollar value at the receiver position.
Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson ($6,400) and Los Angeles Rams D/ST ($4,800)
I tried to stay away from the running back/defense stack this week, but when going through the numbers for Week 4, it was hard to ignore this one.
This week, the Los Angeles Rams host the New York Giants and sport an implied total of 30.5 points -- the highest on the main slate. They’re also 12.5-point favorites against the Giants, which is the second largest spread this week. That is a mouth-watering game script for both Henderson and the Rams' defense.
The Rams' defense has generated five turnovers to start the season, which is currently tied for the ninth most across the NFL. They should be able to ramp up that number even more this week against a Giants offense that has turned the ball over seven times in three games, tied for the second most across the league.
Stacking up the defense with Henderson makes a lot of sense in this matchup. Henderson has been the lead back for this Rams offense over the past two weeks, and his numbers showed the significance of that in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills.
Henderson saw 20 carries in Week 3, 13 more than Malcom Brown got. Henderson was also the much better runner and finished the game with 114 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Brown ran for just 19 rushing yards on his seven attempts. This looks to be Henderson’s backfield with Cam Akers out.
Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints
Matthew Stafford ($7,200), Kenny Golladay ($7,300) and Alvin Kamara ($8,800)
Wrapping up this week’s stacks is a game stack in the Detroit Lions-New Orleans Saints. This game currently has an over/under of 54.0 points, which is the third highest on the main slate.
I like attacking this by stacking up Matthew Stafford with Kenny Golladay from the Lions side and running it back with Alvin Kamara on the Saints side. The Saints are currently 4.5-point favorites, which suggests the game script will favor the Lions throwing the ball quite a bit, while the Saints should lean on Kamara in both the rushing and passing game.
Stafford is projecting well by our model and is currently sitting as the fourth best point-per-dollar value at the quarterback position. He’s also projected to throw for the second most passing yards this week.
Through three weeks, Stafford has yet to score fewer than 17 FanDuel points, suggesting he has a relatively safe floor week in and week out. He also got Golladay, his best wide receiver, back at full strength last week. That gives Stafford’s floor and ceiling a boost.
Speaking of Golladay, Pro Football Focus currently has him ranked with the second-best wide receiver/cornerback matchup this week. He’s expected to face Marshon Lattimore and has a 60% advantage over him. That’s obviously a significant advantage, but that may be even more apparent now considering Lattimore injured his hamstring in practice this week and missed practice on Thursday.
If Lattimore does play, it doesn’t look like he’ll be at full strength. If he happens to miss this game, the Saints will have to start one of their backups. In either case, Golladay should have his way with the Saints’ secondary.
Now I really like running this stack back with Kamara. The star running back has seen a crazy 30.4% of the team’s target share to start the 2020 season and is averaging 10.6 yards per reception. He’s also scored two touchdowns in each of his first three games and has a great opportunity to expand on that number this week against a Lions defense that has allowed the seventh most FanDuel points to opposing running backs this season.
Outside of Ezekiel Elliott, no other running back is projected to have a better week than Kamara, per our numbers, and you get him at a slight discount compared to Zeke. And while Kamara will likely be popular, it’s hard to ignore a guy who’s averaging 31.1 FanDuel points per game to start the season.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)
