4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 4
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.
Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Salary: $7,900
(UPDATE: Cam Newton has tested positive for COVID-19 and has been ruled out for Week 4.)
Week 4's slate is absolutely loaded with high-upside quarterback plays. Nine different quarterbacks lead offenses with implied totals of 27 points or higher, including notable names like Lamar Jackson ($9,600), Russell Wilson ($9.000), Kyler Murray ($8,400), and Dak Prescott ($8,200).
That should keep roster percentages fairly spread out among that group, and that will inevitably lead to other quarterbacks potentially falling through the cracks.
As shown by Jackon's performance, this won't necessarily be a walk in the park for Newton -- the Chiefs rank fifth against the pass in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics -- but this game does boast a 52.5 total, so we could have a shootout on our hands.
In games against Miami and Las Vegas, the Patriots led most of the way and didn't bother pushing Newton much, leading to just 19 and 28 pass attempts. Yawn. But New England did have to push the envelope to keep up with Seattle, which led to Newton airing it out 44 times on his way to 397 passing yards. Coupled with his trademark rushing contributions, that led to 35.58 FanDuel points -- exactly the kind of upside we're looking for in tournaments.
The Chiefs have been a tougher test for quarterbacks compared to the Seahawks, increasing Newton's chances of busting, but this game environment has the potential to bring out a ceiling performance.
In addition to throwing more often, Newton should also find his usual success running the football. For all his struggles, Jackson still rushed for 83 yards on 9 carries against Kansas City, while Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert both scored rushing touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) and Alvin Kamara ($8,800) figure to soak up some of the highest roster percentages in potential high-scoring matchups, and less expensive backs like Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,400) and Joe Mixon ($6,800) could also be popular as home favorites with high implied totals.
Part of the reason Jacobs may not pop as much to the public is he's an underdog against Buffalo and is coming off a dud against New England where Vegas trailed for the majority of the game. Given the way Josh Allen and the Bills have been playing, it's entirely possible Jacobs will find himself in another negative game script, potentially capping his upside.
However, Buffalo is only a 3.0-point road favorite and the game has a strong 52.5 over/under, so a back-and-forth affair is entirely possible. In fact, the Bills' defense ranks 30th in adjusted run defense, and particularly with injuries to Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs, the Raiders will almost certainly be compelled to utilize Jacobs early and often.
And while it would be nice if Jacobs saw more targets (13), he ranks behind only Derrick Henry in rushing attempts (68). His 44.5% market share of total opportunities ranks higher than everyone on the slate, too, including Dalvin Cook, Elliott, and Kamara.
Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
FanDuel Salary: $7,300
With so many elite quarterbacks tied to potential shootouts, those spots should draw heavy roster percentages, and the most popular game stacks figure to revolve around teams like the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Cardinals.
But those 54 points have to come from somewhere, and that's where Kenny Golladay comes in.
In Week 3, Golladay was tied for the team high in targets (7) in his first game back, seeing a solid 22.6% target share and 35.0% air yards share. He played 73% of the snaps -- a number that figures to only go up from here -- and he sure looked healthy catching his first 2020 touchdown.
Between Detroit's mess of a backfield and most of their other pass-catchers lacking much appeal, this all points to Golladay being one of the best ways to gain exposure to this game, and he just so happens to be around the same salary as obvious plays like Tyler Lockett ($7,500), Amari Cooper ($7,100), and D.K. Metcalf ($6.900).
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Salary: $4,900
Tight end feels like a wasteland once you get passed the top few names -- what else is new -- but there's decent value between guys like Michael Gesicki ($5,700), T.J. Hockenson ($5,400), and Logan Thomas ($4,900).
That could once again lead to a low roster percentage for Dalton Schultz, who popped up in just 3% of Sunday Million lineups last week. That seems awfully low considering Dallas was in a projected shootout against Seattle last week -- a game that ultimately finished with 69 combined points -- and this is a similar situation in Week 4 against Cleveland.
Schultz didn't have a noteworthy performance, catching 4-of-6 targets for 48 yards, but he's now seen 16% of the targets over the past two weeks, which is viable on a Cowboys team that plays at a breakneck pace and continues to find themselves in weekly shootouts.
While someone like Logan Thomas is seeing more targets, we have a far better chance of Schultz finding the end zone in this offense, which is what we need to move up tournament leaderboards. The Browns were one of the worst defenses against tight ends in 2019, and so far they've allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to the position this year.