The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 4
Betting NFL games can be a blast. Whether you take the time to analyze each line and cash in big, or you do it for the fun -- share your bets with friends and tilt with one another in a group chat. Either way, having another layer of interest in your weekly football-watching is great. A lot of times, whether you like or not, you're not alone, either.
And that's where numberFire's oddsFire tool comes in. oddsFire breaks down the differences in betting odds, lines, and totals across a number of sportsbooks, but it also shows us what percentage of total bets and money is being laid on any line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Using oddsFire, you can then decide if you would like to align yourself with the betting public -- and enjoy the sweat together -- or go against the grain to capitalize on an over-hyped situation.
In this weekly article, we're here to dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public's heavy investment.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
A lot of people are clearly eating what Chef Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are cookin'. To this point Wednesday night, their side is taking on 94% of the bets and 93% of the money accounting for the spread. In a vacuum, it's definitely justified. Seattle is 3-0 and ranked 11th in our power rankings -- 12 spots ahead of the one-win Miami Dolphins.
However, for as great as Seattle's offense is, and how differently it operates from those of years past, their defense has been not so great -- a shell of what it once was. They are 17th in total defense and 23rd against the pass, even with Jamal Adams playing well in his new home. Their usual corners are beaten up both in terms of health and on-field play. But is this worth going against the grain and taking the home Dolphins?
Considering all the injuries and other circumstances, Miami hasn't been all that bad. They are coming off a win last week and are 2-1 against the spread, according to Killer Sports. Under Brian Flores, they are 11-8 against the points, including a 5-7 record when getting at least 6.5 points. As for Seattle, they are 3-0 against the spread with a 4.3 margin of victory. However, since 2018 they're just 1-3-2 in their last six games they have been favored by more than six (0-0-1 on the road).
The Dolphins should be able to hold their own and keep this one within a touchdown by the end of the day.
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+122)
Believe it or not, the Chicago Bears are the undefeated team in this matchup through three games. And if you watched a large chunk of last week's game, you would have never thought that would be the case. Nick Foles replaced Mitchell Trubisky and rallied the offense to a comeback win over the devastated Atlanta Falcons, yet this week they are getting some disrespect from those making the lines, labeling them 2.5-point home underdogs versus the Indianapolis Colts. The public? Not so much.
After Chicago opened up at +128 on the moneyline, they have drawn 88% of bets and 91% of the money being laid on the outright winner for this showdown. At other books, this betting behavior has caused the Bears' line to dip to +120 or shorter. So, is there value in taking these odds for a $122 return on a $100 bet?
The trends would say so. Matt Nagy's team is 2-0 in its two games getting the points this year, though they're just 3-4 (1-1 at home) in those games going back to last year. Frank Reich's Colts -- since 2018 -- are 11-10 as favorites but 2-3 with a margin of -4.7 when favored on the road. The red-hot Bears are a good bet to exit with a 4-0 record in this spot.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Over 56.5)
This week's Monday Night Football features a pair of superior quarterback-wideout duos. On one side, you have Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, and the other you get Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. That is if both receivers are able to heal up in time to take the field. Both Jones and Adams failed to play last week, and we have no update as of yet. If both play or sit, we will have an even playing field featuring more of Allen Lazard versus Calvin Ridley.
More important for the total, though, is the fact that these two teams are completed skewed toward the offensive side of the ball. While the Atlanta Falcons slot in 18th as an offense (13th in passing), they are 25th defensively (26th against the pass). The home Green Bay Packers are first in total offense (second in both categories) but 31st in defense (25th against the pass). There will be a lot of throwing and scoring with fans tuning in for their last taste of Week 4 football, but will they pass up 50 or go well beyond that and hit the over? 87% of the money says yes.
This total opened all the way up at 58 points, but now we have even odds (-110) on either side of the current total. If history tells us anything, the over could still be the play. Going back to 2017, the over has hit 51% of the time when the total was more than 50, 56% when beyond 55, and 55% in games with a 56.5-plus over/under. The slight edge goes to the offenses knowing what we know through three weeks of action.
