4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 4
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 4lineups.
Update: The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots game has been postponed and is expected to be played on Monday or Tuesday. Cam Newton has tested positive for COVID-19 and will not play this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $5,400
Projected Points: 18.7
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.46
On a week with so much uncertainty elsewhere -- on and off the field -- don't overcomplicate things if you are paying down at quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a no-brainer play. Last week, he had just as many incompletions (2) as he did touchdowns and rushed for 38 yards and another score. His 25.2 DraftKings points gave him a second straight week of at least 25 and brought his three-week average to 20.3.
Based on his recent fantasy production, Fitzpatrick's projection is a little low to begin with. But, when you factor in the opponent here, he could easily blow that out of the water. The Miami Dolphins host the Seattle Seahawks and their swiss cheese pass defense -- a defense that, by our math, ranks 23rd against the pass and 31st against fantasy quarterbacks.
Again, don't overcomplicate it. Fitzpatrick is a fantastic value in this matchup.
Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Bills
DraftKings Price: $4,300
Projected Points: 7.9
Projected Value: 1.83
Suggesting Zack Moss could be a bit controversial to some, but let's talk this out. Although Moss sat out last week with a toe injury, there were never any reports of a serious injury like a break or even turf toe. It sounds like he was dealing with a sprain or something of that nature and the Bills decided to play it safe in Week 3, so that in itself is encouraging for the rookie returning to the 50/50 role he played through the first two weeks. Plus, he was back at practice on Wednesday, putting him on schedule to face the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
The head-to-head, along with what the oddsmakers are saying, make Moss a worthwhile target for GPPs and tournaments. Per Pro Football Reference, the Raiders come into Week 4 allowing the most DK points per game to opposing running backs, having given up six rushing scores and a league-worst 0.28 Rushing NEP per play.
Moss already logged seven, four, and three rushing attempts inside the 20-, 10- and 5-yard lines over his first two career games. His backfield mate, Devin Singletary has eight, three, and two in those areas, but he's played a whole game without a second back at his side. So long as Moss takes on the same role he's a threat for a touchdown or two with the Bills getting a 27.75 implied total, thanks to a three-point line at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $4,500
Projected Points: 11.6
Projected Value: 2.59
If you're rolling out Fitzpatrick and hoping for a vintage Fitzmagic performance, you might as well double down with one of his pass-catcher. And, while DeVante Parker projects as the top option in Miami, Preston Williams is $1,200 cheaper despite out-snapping Parker by seven
Williams is primed for a breakout in this spot. He's drawn five-plus targets in two of his first three games, and in doing so has averaged 9.5 expected fantasy points, according to DynastyProcess.com. In fact, prior to last week's 4.6 expected points, he should have come away with 12.4 and 11.5 in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively.
If the opportunities are there this week should be no different. As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, the Seattle secondary has allowed 400 more receiving yards than any other team has through three weeks. The ceiling is the roof for the Fitzpatrick-to-Williams connection.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Chicago Bears
DraftKings Price: $3,800
Projected Points: 7.4
Projected Value: 1.93
Coming into the season, the Chicago Bears hinted at Jimmy Graham being used a lot differently than he was in his time with the Green Bay Packers. That meant he would be used less frequently as a run blocker and more frequently as a safety blank in the Bears' struggling pass offense. And to this point, things have gone as expected.
Surrounding a one-catch dud in Week 2, Graham has garnered a combined 17 targets in Weeks 1 and 3, leading to 9 catches, 85 yards, and 3 scores. He's played at least 62% of snaps in all three matchups, peaking at 55 snaps in the come-from-behind win against the Atlanta Falcons a week ago. His arrow is pointing up, especially from the boost he should get from Nick Foles now operating as Chicago's starter behind center.
Foles' at least average passing could do wonders for Graham and his fantasy viability this week. The Bears face an Indianapolis Colts team that -- despite missing Malik Hooker in the defensive backfield -- has held tight ends to 7% of their team's receiving yards. The problem with that is they haven't faced a proven threat at the position. And though Graham isn't in his prime he is a proven veteran that has gotten in done in the red zone over and over again.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.