FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 2 Sunday Night
Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game. On FanDuel Sportsbook, Seattle is a 4.0-point favorite with a total set at 44.5.
Per our oddsFire tool, the public is all over Seattle. Of the bets coming in on the spread, 68% of the bets and 72% of the money is backing the Seahawks. There is a funky discrepancy on the moneyline. While 55% of moneyline bets are on the Pats, 73% of the money is on Seattle.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($16,000)
Russell Wilson is the clear top choice at MVP, and I expect him to be the most popular play in the MVP slot. Our model projects him for 20.7 FanDuel points -- 3.5 more than anyone else on the slate.
Wilson shredded the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, totaling 31.78 FanDuel points thanks to 322 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. Maybe Seattle is gonna #LetRussCook this season after Wilson threw the rock 35 times in a lopsided win. That would be fun.
There's no denying how good of a play Wilson is on this slate. But with Russ likely to be the chalk MVP play, I'll probably pick someone else in my MVP spot. Weird stuff happens on single-game slates, and this is a much tougher matchup for Seattle. New England was elite against the pass in 2019, and they held the Miami Dolphins to 11 points and 191 passing yards in Week 1.
The only issue with fading Wilson in the MVP spot is finding another high-upside option to put there in what looks like a low-scoring game (44.0-point total). That's where this next guy comes in.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($12,000)
Tyler Lockett is my favorite MVP option on this slate. I like chasing big plays in my MVP slot, and in what is expected to be a lower-scoring game, one big play from Lockett could swing the slate.
With D.K. Metcalf ($11,000) getting a touchdown last week and having a salary $1,000 cheaper than Lockett's, Metcalf may wind up being the more popular of the two. But Lockett had just as many targets (8) and caught every single one of them for 92 yards.
The variable here is Stephon Gilmore. If he shadows one of Lockett or Metcalf, the other wideout will be the one to play. Good luck figuring out what Bill Belichick is going to do.
We project Lockett for 12.8 FanDuel points, 1.2 more than Metcalf.
Cam Newton, Patriots ($15,000)
Given that Cam Newton had played just two games since the end of the 2018 campaign and was suiting up for a new team without any 2020 preseason, his Week 1 performance was pretty dang good. He went 15 for 19 for only 155 yards, but he added 2 rushing scores.
With New England lacking perimeter playmakers and sporting one of the league's top defenses, Newton may struggle for passing volume this season, and his 21 drop backs in Week 1 were the fewest among all signal callers. What can save him, though, is his running ability, and the way the Pats used him in Week 1 is a positive sign in that regard.
And Cam's passing volume may get a boost in this one with New England serving as an underdog. The matchup is solid, too, as Seattle's pass defense shouldn't be anything special. They gave up 450 yards and 2 touchdowns to Matt Ryan last week, although that game was a much different affair than what this one will likely be.
All in all, I like Newton a lot on this slate. He can even be a sneaky-good MVP pick, but he'll likely need a rushing score to really pop.
Julian Edelman, Patriots ($11,500)
There was some good and some bad in Julian Edelman's Week 1 usage.
The bad? He played just 58% of the snaps. The good? He was targeted a lot when he was on the field, seeing a 36.8% target share and 60.4% air yards share, per PlayerProfiler.
Russell Gage put up 9 catches for more than 100 yards on this Seattle D in Week 1 while running 69.2% of his routes from the slot. That bodes well for Edelman.
If you're building a lineup expecting a negative game script for the Pats, Edelman and James White ($9,500) make a ton of sense. White saw just three targets last week, but the Patriots were in control of that one.
We project Edelman and White for 9.0 and 8.3 FanDuel points, respectively.
N'Keal Harry, Patriots ($8,000)
The value options on this slate aren't pretty. I can stomach N'Keal Harry, though, in lineups that are built with the idea that Seattle wins.
In a positive game script in Week 1, Harry saw an 82.0% snap share and 21.8% air yards share. Those numbers would likely go up in a negative game script.
And I don't hate Jakobi Meyers ($5,500) if you're going with a stars-and-scrubs build. Meyers logged a 48.0% snap rate and 23.4% air yards share in the season opener, but he wasn't targeted.