NFL Betting Guide: Week 2
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 48.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
After a Week 1 shootout in which they and the Green Bay Packers combined for a league-leading 77 points, the Minnesota Vikings may be the last team that comes to mind when betting the under this week. One week does not a trend make, however, and numberFire's models point to the under in this game as one of the best bets of the week.
In 2019, the under went 6-3 when teams were coming off games when they and their opponents combined for more than 70 points. The under was 11-8-2 the week after teams had allowed their opponents to score more than 40 points. In the game after a team had given up more than 500 yards, the under was 13-10-1
The under is 13-4 in the Vikings' past 17 games as at least a 3.0-point underdog. The under has had a winning yearly record in such Vikings games every year since 2014. The under has hit in four of the past six games the Vikings have played in as underdogs with totals set higher than 45.
The Colts and Vikings have combined to average 38.7 points in their past three meetings; the under has hit in all three of those contests, all Colts wins. Our models see the Colts eking out another win in a game which we project to see just 42.5 points scored. We give the under a 67.4% chance of hitting; with an expected return of $128.59 for every $100 wagered, we mark the bet as a four-star play.
Cardinals -7.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Cardinals Moneyline (-320): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Washington Football Team surprised many with a Week 1 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Much of Washington's success last week was due to sacking Carson Wentz eight times. That may seem like a lot on the surface, but the Football Team was third in the league last year in quarterback pressures per drop back, according to Pro Football Reference.
Week 2 should present a much stiffer test for Washington as they face an Arizona Cardinals squad that just downed the Super Bowl runner-up San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. The Cardinals are currently 7.0-point favorites; they've won 12 of their past 15 games when favored by more than 6.0 points, though they have gone 5-10 against the spread (ATS) in those contests.
Washington is 2-8 straight up (SU) in their past 10 games following a more-than-five-point win, getting outscored by an average of 8.8 points. They've gone 4-6 ATS in those contests. They allowed just 265 total yards to Philly last week. In 2019, away underdogs were 12-28 SU and 19-20-1 ATS the week after allowing fewer than 300 combined rushing and passing yards.
numberFire's models like the Cards to win by 11.5 points this week, leading to a 2-0 start to the season. We give Arizona an 83.1% chance of winning and a 59.9% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread. We mark the bets as four- and two-star plays, respectively.
Lions +6.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
While the loss may not have been as demoralizing as the Atlanta Falcons' infamous Super Bowl defeat, when the Falcons squandered a 28-3 cushion, the Detroit Lions' 27-23 loss in Week 1 may have had some of the same emotional effect.
The Lions were up 23-6 going into the fourth quarter, but from there on, they allowed 21 unanswered points, including two touchdowns in the last three minutes. Last year, teams were 69-1 when leading by more than 15 after three quarters. (Oddly enough, the final score in that one loss was also 27-23.) This Lions team is going to be salty and itching to get to 1-1 after that collapse, and they'll have to beat long-time rival Green Bay in order to do so.
Green Bay cruised to a Week 1 win behind 364 yards and 4 touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers. Another easy win may not be in the cards this week. The Lions have won four of the last six games between these two. Detroit covered the spread in all six of those contests and did so by a shockingly large average of 14.1 points. The Packers did win both matchups last year, but the victories came by just one and three points. Mason Crosby hit game-winning field goals as time expired in both contests.
The Packers are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games after winning by at least nine points. That includes 0-3 ATS against the Lions in that span. They're 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games after going off for more than 500 yards of offense.
Our models do project the Lions to lose, but they also give Detroit a 61.9% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread. We mark the bet as a two-star play.