7 Daily Fantasy Football Tournament Plays for Week 5
With DraftKings' Millionaire Maker running this weekend, daily fantasy footballers are thinking tournament. There are a lot of players that seem to have a lot of value this week, but that will have ownership percentages far too high to get you into big money positions. This week, I take a look at seven names that I believe can help you find your way to the top of the leaderboards.
Let's get right to the fun stuff.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - Big Ben has been quietly putting up quite respectable fantasy numbers this year, averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game. This week he draws a Jacksonville defense that has been an absolute fantasy goldmine, giving up the most points to opposing quarterbacks. Roethlisberger should also have plenty of opportunities to work against this defense, as the Steelers are in the top half of the league (13th) in terms of pass plays called, as well as 8th in most passing plays inside the red zone. Roethlisberger is well positioned for a big week, and comes at a nice discount compared to other top quarterbacks - he's only the 12th-most expensive passer, and costs only 80% of what Peyton Manning does this week.
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals - Cincinnati enters Week 5 as the most run-heavy team in the NFL, running the ball on 53.7% of their offensive plays so far. In the red zone, this numbers jumps to a league-high 66.67%. Jeremy Hill has thrived in the Bengals offense so far, leading the team with 5.08 yards per carry, and ranking third in the league among running backs in terms of Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) with 8.87. He takes this success into a very exploitable matchup against the Patriots, who gave up 200 yards on the ground to the Chiefs last week, as well as 190 against the Dolphins in Week 1. Both Hill and teammate Gio Bernard are poised to put up big numbers, but with Hill's more attractive price tag, he could be the better value.
Chris Ivory, New York Jets - Ivory has been hands-down the best back in the Jets' stable so far this season. His 5.46 yards per carry lead the team, and ranks eighth among running backs with 15 or more carries. He has also posted an impressive Rushing NEP of 8.40, good for fourth in the league. Ivory has also recorded a team-high 10 red-zone carries, which ranks 9th league-wide. Though he shares carries with Chris Johnson, Ivory seems to be carving out a larger and larger role for himself. He is first on the team with 50 carries (to Johnson's 41), a number that will likely continue widening, as Ivory carried the ball 11 more times than Johnson last week. Ivory's efficiency combined with an increasingly large role and heavy red zone usage put him in a favorable position this week.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars - This week, Jacksonville will be without Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts, who combine to account for 20% of the Jaguars passing targets so far, leaving a void to be filled by Robinson and teammate Allen Hurns. They will be up against a Steelers defense that ranks fifth-worst against the pass according to our metrics.
The Jaguars will be putting this defense to the test often, as they've thrown the ball on 66.5% of snaps, the second-highest rate in the league. Robinson and Hurns have led the way and are very close in targets so far, with Robinson drawing 26 to Hurns' 24. The deciding factor between Hurns and Robinson for me this week is their salaries. On DraftKings, Hurns will cost you $4,500, while Robinson can be had for the minimum at $3,000. Robinson has a fairly high floor this week with PPR scoring, and though the Jaguars red-zone sample size is admittedly small, he leads the team in red-zone targets, which gives me some faith in his ceiling, especially given his cost.
Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers - Floyd is another minimum-salary receiver that I believe possesses a lot of upside this week. The Chargers' targets have been spread amongst a ton of players so far, but Floyd's efficiency has been remarkable, and he doesn't need a ton of targets to give you big numbers. Among receivers with 10 or more targets, Floyd is second in terms of Reception NEP per target, and has the fourth-most fantasy points per target. Matched up against the Jets, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers this year, Floyd wont need more than a few targets to be well positioned for a big week.
Garrett Graham, Houston Texans - Graham is the lucky tight end this week that draws the Dallas Cowboys matchup. Dallas has proved completely incapable of stopping opposing tight ends this year, and is giving up an average of 9.3 receptions for 98.8 yards and 1.5 scores against opposing tight ends each week. While Graham hasn't been targeted heavily this season, he has seen his targets trend upwards lately, recording five in each of the last two games. He is also unquestionably the top tight end on the Texans, being the only one to be targeted more than twice. Until the Cowboys show at least a semblance of ability to stop tight ends, anyone drawing the matchup will have incredibly high upside, and with a small salary, Graham's upside this week comes almost for free
New York Giants - A lot of people may be scared away from this play because of how explosive the Atlanta Falcons offense can be, but that's not as big of a concern as it may seem. Vegas oddsmakers have the Falcons projected to score 22.5 points this week, which is tied for only the 15th-highest in the league. What really makes this play enticing, however, is the upside from turnovers. The Giants defense is tied for first in the league with nine takeaways, while the Falcons sit alone at the top of the league in giveaways, with 10. The upside of high turnover numbers combined with a potentially low ownership percentage is exactly what you're looking for in a big tournament.