Fantasy Football: numberFire Staff Mock Draft

No two drafts in fantasy football are the same, but one thing that is consistent is that if you're not careful, your team could end up looking as ugly as Paul George's postseason shooting chart.

With the NFL season right around the corner, our staff got together and carried out a 12-team, half-PPR (point-per-reception) mock draft in order to get a better idea of what may take place on draft day.

Here is the draft order, as well as the 12 participants.

1. JJ Zachariason, @LateRoundQB.
2. Jim Sannes, @JimSannes.
3. Tom Vecchio, @DFS_Tom.
4. Elisha Twerski, @ElishaTwerski.
5. Joe Redemann, @TheIDPGuy.
6. Ryan Kirksey, @ryankirksey.
7. Eli Weiner, @EWeinerFantasy.
8. Austan Kas, @AustanKas.
9. Sam Hoppen, @SamHoppen.
10. Neil Dutton, @ndutton13.
11. Kenyatta Storin, @KenyattaStorin.
12. Brandon Gdula, @gdula13.

For the full draft board, as well as to see what teams got the best reviews, read until the end.

Ready. Set. Go!

Round 1

Quick Hits -- Very few surprises to start. The first eight picks followed BestBall10s' average draft position (ADP) nearly to a tee. With an August ADP of 14.60, Josh Jacobs was a bit of a surprise at the ninth overall pick -- in June, I wrote about why Jacobs should be a first-rounder. Clyde Edwards-Helaire went seventh. Get used to that. He's not going to fall much further in your drafts, either. Davante Adams was the first of three consecutive receivers drafted by Brandon Gdula -- Gdula is now a reluctant member of the "zero-RB" club...kind of.

My Pick -- If this draft was a week before the season, I might've gone with Dalvin Cook. But for now, Alvin Kamara is the better pick in my book. As long as Cook doesn't pull a "Le'Veon Bell," I'd want a top-five pick in this year's draft. Otherwise, give me 11 or 12. I'd rather eat a vegetable than end up with a middle slot, and I really don't like vegetables.

Sam Hoppen on Josh Jacobs at 1.09 -- "Josh Jacobs has been creeping up my rankings but hasn't been moving up in ADP, which is great for me. Last season, Jacobs was in contention for the rushing title before missing a couple of games due to injury, so we know he has elite upside as a rusher. The question remains whether he can see a bump in the receiving game. Despite the plethora of pass-catching options the Las Vegas Raiders added this offseason, most of them were just depth pieces and won't see regular playing time in the offense. The Raiders have also talked extensively about how they want to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game, and I don't think they're lying. If Jacobs gets a bump in targets similar to what we saw from Fournette last year, he'll be a top-five running back, so I'm thrilled to get him later in the first round."

Round 2

Quick Hits -- I like Kenyatta's start of Joe Mixon and Kenyan Drake -- two players with the potential to easily finish as top-five backs, as I wrote here (Mixon) and here (Drake). I'm all aboard taking Travis Kelce in the early or mid-second -- he provides a huge advantage at a position that has about as much talent as my golf game. Patrick Mahomes going four spots ahead of his August ADP in a non-superflex mock surprised me a bit. JJ passing on Kenny Golladay would have been woefully disappointing.

My Pick -- As I noted in my chat with Austan on tight end strategy, it's either Kelce, George Kittle, or a late-round tight end for me. With Deebo Samuel down and Jalen Hurd likely out for the year, Kittle is going to get all the volume he can handle.

Round 3

Quick Hits -- Round 3 started off with a run of five straight receivers. JJ's pick of Mike Evans surprised me a bit, though the Texas A&M product certainly doesn't lack any upside. The point-per-reception (PPR) stud receivers followed Evans off the board, with D.J. Moore, Adam Thielen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Allen Robinson all likely to reward drafters in this scoring format. Lamar Jackson went five picks below his August ADP. Robert Woods went 7.5 picks ahead of his ADP this month, which is something you can expect to happen in leagues with savvy drafters -- Woods was Gdula's third consecutive wideout to start the draft.

My Pick -- I wanted Godwin, Golladay, Thielen, or Moore to drop to me, but all four went within the five picks prior to my turn. Instead, I went with JuJu Smith-Schuster. I view JuJu as a higher risk than the aforementioned wideouts due to the fact that he's tied to 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger. Ben looks like he's in tip-top 65-year-old shape. That said, JuJu is just a year removed from posting more fantasy points than any receiver not named Michael Thomas posted last year.

Eli Weiner on James Conner at 3.07 -- "James Conner is an easy target at his ADP, as his only downside his injury risk. Yes, I said only. It's easy to forget that Connor was the RB10 through Week 8 last year, averaging 17.8 PPR points per game, despite almost all of that production coming alongside Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. That's even more impressive when you consider that Pittsburgh ranked second-worst in Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play last year. In 2018, with Big Ben healthy, Pittsburgh ranked seventh-best by that same metric. Big Ben calls the shots in this historically one-back offense, and he's going to want his trusted back next to him. Not Benny Snell Jr., a plodding back who Big Ben has almost zero on-field time with. Not Anthony McFarland Jr., a rookie in a shortened offseason. And not Jaylen Samuels, who struggles between the tackles. Connor is staring at lead-back duties in an offense that will be efficient as long as his QB is healthy. I'm happy to grab him in the third and start hammering wide receivers thereafter."

Round 4

Quick Hits -- Brandon broke his streak of only drafting receivers to take Le'Veon Bell. Bell was the first of six backs to go in the fourth, as he was followed by four backs with new organizations -- Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, and rookie Jonathan Taylor. This was also a round for 2019 breakout wideouts, with A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Cooper Kupp, and D.J. Chark all coming off the board. For both Eli and Neil, this was their first time dipping into the wide receiver pool.

My Pick -- I'm not a Jonathan Taylor stan (am I using that term correctly?), but I felt quite comfortable taking him late in the fourth. I feel like many are taking Marlon Mack's presence for granted, but Taylor should still see enough volume to pay off the 45th pick. After giving serious consideration to making David Johnson my selection in the third, I missed out on him by just one pick in the fourth.

Ryan Kirksey on Cooper Kupp at 4.07 -- "In the fourth round, Kupp provides the ideal complement to a draft that started with Michael Thomas and then shifted to running backs in rounds two and three. There are some negative misconceptions surrounding Kupp's 2019 season, maybe because he had a stretch of six games where he had no more than 54 yards receiving and scored one total touchdown? In his other 10 contests, Kupp averaged 9.3 targets, 79 receiving yards, and 1.0 touchdown per game. Kupp ranked 11th among all wide receivers in targets last season (134) and now gets an opportunity to absorb some of the 103 targets vacated by the departures of Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley for a Rams team that averaged the third-most pass attempts per game last year (39.5). With Thomas and Kupp anchoring my receivers, I can feel comfortable expecting 275 targets and 200+ receptions, and upside for more."

Round 5

Quick Hits -- JJ started off the fifth by taking his fourth straight receiver -- this time it was D.K. Metcalf. Jim followed that up by making Mark Andrews the third tight end off the board -- Andrews' matched up well with his 49.2 ADP in August. Raheem Mostert's ADP this month is 55.9 -- that draft position is quite volatile, with him going as high as 31 and as low as the 77th pick. Michael Gallup (WR29 ADP) coming off the board as the 24th wideout was a bit of a surprise -- Eli lays out his reasoning below.

My Pick -- I find myself drafting D'Andre Swift in most mocks or actual drafts that I do. Swift has an ADP that's 18.8 picks behind his rookie counterpart Taylor, despite the fact that Taylor is in the same backfield as Mack, who rushed for nearly 1,100 yards in 2019. I like both players, but the disparity in draft position makes little sense.

Eli Weiner on Michael Gallup at 5.07 -- "Michael Gallup is someone I'm targeting aggressively at his WR29 ADP per FantasyPros (WR25 in my own rankings). Gallup was sixth among receivers in yards per game last year and 10th in yards per route run. He's a third-year receiver, which we know is when receivers tend to breakout. The Dallas Cowboys have 190 targets missing from last year's team (second-most in the league), so I'm not worried about CeeDee Lamb hurting his target share. Not only is this an offense we want to target (Dallas ranked second in Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play last year), but there's room for the passing pie to grow, especially in the red zone. Dallas' red zone pass rate last year was 45%, fourth-lowest in the league per Sharp Football Stats. As head coach of the Green Bay Packers in 2018, new Cowboys' head coach Mike McCarthy passed 64% of the time in the red zone, the second-highest mark in the league. Giddy up."

Round 6

My Pick -- At first, I was like, "This Antonio Gibson hype is out of control", but I've warmed up to the idea since. Washington has very little depth at wide receiver behind McLaurin, which means Gibson could see volume in a variety of ways. Despite a lack of rushing volume in college, Gibson should be able to handle some wear. He was in the 68th percentile in BMI (body mass index) among his class in 2020, according to PlayerProfiler. If you want to get titillated, just look at Gibson's Speed Score (99th percentile).

Round 7

Quick Hits -- After seeing 32 running backs and receivers go through the first six rounds, the wideouts finally pulled ahead with a 7-2 run in the seventh. Round seven also had as many quarterbacks drafted as the entire first six rounds combined. The only two backs selected in this round were high-upside "backups" Darrell Henderson and Tevin Coleman.

Round 8

My Pick -- I officially have a draft crush on Anthony Miller. The Chicago Bears have an incredibly friendly strength of schedule (the easiest, according to FantasyPros), and Miller should see a bump in targets with the departure of Taylor Gabriel. When Gabriel went down last year, Miller posted 35 receptions for 438 yards and 2 scores. That's a 16-game pace of 80 receptions for 1,001 yards and 5 tuddies. That line would've made him the WR25 last season. Me likey.

Neil Dutton on Brandon Aiyuk at 8.03 -- "I was a massive fan of Brandon Aiyuk in the predraft process, and when he landed with the San Francisco 49ers, I was giddy at the prospect of his fit in that offense. However, I was wary about how much he could deliver as a rookie, seeing as he would probably be behind Kittle and Samuel in the target totem pole. But Deebo's injury and Aiyuk's glowing reports from camp make me think we can expect an immediate impact from him in 2020. My first three wide receiver picks all have elements of risk attached, with Aiyuk being no exception. That said, I wanted a piece of the 49ers offense, and believe this was a good cost-efficient way to do so."
(Editor's note: This mock was done before Aiyuk's injury was reported.)

Round 9

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Team-by-Team Results

Ranking the Teams

I asked each of the participants in this mock to rank who they thought the top three teams were. I awarded 10 points for first-place votes, 7 points for second, and 5 points for third. Here were the results.

It appears that my bribes did not work as well as I'd hoped -- I kid, my amazing team needed no bribery.

While JJ's RB2 spot isn't anything to write home about, having Christian McCaffrey and a plethora of high-upside receivers more than makes up for it. I really liked JJ's dart-throws of Zack Moss and Damien Harris -- both have the potential to be league-winning picks.

JJ takes home our "Mock Draft Champion" award...which is worth absolutely nothing and everything at the same time.