3 Exact Super Bowl LV Matchups Worth Betting
Hitting on a preseason pick to win the Super Bowl is always a great feeling. Not only do you increase your bankroll -- you were right.
You can bet any NFL team to win the Super Bowl over at FanDuel Sportsbook, but there's a whole lot more than just outright Super Bowl LV winners available.
One of them is predicting the exact Super Bowl LV matchup. That's a bold bet to make. You don't have to pick the winner of the game -- but you have to hit on each of the two conference winners.
That being said, the odds on every matchup are quite long, the favorite being the Kansas City Chiefs to face the San Francisco 49ers in a Super Bowl rematch. That matchup is listed at +2000. Only four other matchups are listed at shorter than +3000.
So, yeah, the probability of hitting this is low, but that means a big return on investment just by taking some stabs. And using our preseason projections and Super Bowl probabilities, these are the best exact matchup values on the board.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +3000
This is one of the most likely matchups out there on the betting board (as the odds are fourth-shortest), but our projections imply a solid bit of value here. Our preseason rankings place the Baltimore Ravens as the best NFL unit, giving them a nERD score of 5.90. nERD indicates expected point differential over an average opponent on a neutral field. That means that our algorithm would expect them to beat an average team by about a touchdown. The New Orleans Saints are the fourth-best team in the NFL, per our projections, with a nERD score of 4.33.
They're also the first- and fourth-most likely teams to win the Super Bowl, according to our algorithm. The matchup is about 4.3% likely to occur, but the +3000 odds show a 3.2% chance. We're looking at razor-thin edges here, but a $10 bet would still net you $300 here.
Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +15000
The Saints emerge again here, but this one comes at significantly longer odds than what we just discussed. It's tied for the 76th-most likely matchup out of 255 total matchups listed. The Tennessee Titans have a lot to do with this. They're numberFire's 12th-ranked preseason team but are 8th-most likely to win the Super Bowl, largely due to their weak division. They're the seventh-most likely team to win their division, per our projections.
The FanDuel Sportsbook odds are lower, listing them as the 15th-most likely team to win the Super Bowl at +3000 outright. This matchup should occur about 1.5% of the time, but the +15000 odds suggest it's only around 0.7% likely. This would turn $10 into $1,500, so not too bad for a longshot.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +3600
The Ravens are back, this time joined by the Dallas Cowboys, who are fifth in numberFire's preseason power rankings and the third-most likely team to win the division (53.0%). Baltimore is 59.8% likely to win the AFC North, so this matchup gives us two of the three most likely teams in the league to get an automatic bid to the playoffs.
Dallas easily underperformed last year with their 8-8 record despite ranking sixth in point differential and fifth in nERD. numberFire is higher on each of these two teams than the sportsbook odds imply.
Other Value Bets
Tennesse Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys (+15000)
Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers (+8000)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints (+2800)
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys (+7500)
Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints (+9000)
