NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 15

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 15

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Week 15's Top Picks

Miami over Jacksonville (73.6% Win Probability)
The Dolphins hung in a game against the 49ers last week until late in the fourth quarter and while their playoff hopes are done, they have an easy matchup at home against the Jaguars in Week 15. That’s the same Jaguars team that lost to Mark Sanchez last week.

Houston over Indianapolis (71.2% Win Probability)
The Texans were beaten up badly by the Patriots on Monday Night, but they are still one of the best teams in the league. This is the first of what will likely be two wins against the Colts the rest of the way.

New England over San Francisco (70.7% Win Probability)
In the marquee matchup of the week, the Patriots take on the 49ers in a potential Super Bowl matchup. Tom Brady and the league’s best offense showed just how good they are at home on Monday Night and the 49ers defense will certainly have their hands full.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. Miami Dolphins over Jacksonville Jaguars (51.0%)
2. Detroit Lions over Arizona Cardinals (20.0%)
3. Seattle Seahawks over Buffalo Bills (7.0%)

Who to Pick

New England Patriots (70.1 adjusted win odds)
Since almost everyone will have picked the Patriots by this point, the Bengals or Seahawks are the likely best pick.

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)