Davante Adams Can Exceed His Lofty Betting Props in 2020
He battled injuries throughout the season yet continued to display his consistency when on the field.
FanDuel Sportsbook places Adams’ 2020 receiving yards prop at 1,200.5 (-112) and receiving touchdowns prop at 9.5 (-112). Let’s see if Adams, after an offseason to recover from his injuries, can go over these props.
Adams has only finished above 1,200 yards once in his career but has finished with over 9 touchdowns three times. In 2018, he finished with 1,386 yards and 13 touchdowns in 15 games. Given he only played 12 games in 2019, he was on pace to finish with 1,247 yards and 6 touchdowns. In the 2019 season, Adams finished third in receptions per game (6.9), fifth in receiving yards per game (83.1), and eighth in targets per game (9.1) among wide receivers. Additionally, he finished top-15 in targets (127) and receptions (83).
One of the biggest strengths for Adams is that quarterback Aaron Rodgers provides him with plenty of volume. In 2019, Adams ranked third in target rate (30.3%), third in red zone receptions (16), and sixth in target accuracy (7.58), per PlayerProfiler. Rodgers loves to give Adams opportunities, especially in the red zone -- which should be a boost to his outlook.
As I said in the Rodgers prop article, 2019 was one of the most pass-heavy seasons since Rodgers became the starting quarterback in Green Bay. This came in a season where Green Bay won 13 games. Assuming there is regression in total wins, it's not unrealistic to expect that there could be an uptick in passing volume. The Packers were 13th in pass rate when the score was within 7 points either wary, per SharpFootballStats.
The Packers only added Devin Funchess to the wide receiver corps, which was a surprise to many. Funchess could take some red zone looks away from Adams and, there is also the threat of possible fantasy sleepers -- Jace Sternberger or Allen Lazard breaking out and taking more work than expected. Still, it's doubtful that there is a significant threat to Adams’ workload in the form of unproven weapons.
The main threat to Adams is his health. He has not played a full season in three years and has missed more than one game in two of them. When on the field, there is no question Adams is one of the most productive receivers in the league and has the ability to pile up the stats.
numberFire projects Adams will finish with 100.91 receptions, 1,223.01 receiving yards, and 9.09 receiving touchdowns on 160.15 targets. There is no doubt the projections expect Adams to continue receiving high volume in a pass-heavy scheme, which has room to increase.
At 160.15 projected targets, Adams would need a touchdown rate (touchdowns per target) of 6.25% to reach 10 touchdowns in the 2020 season. From 2016 to 2018, Adams had a touchdown rate at 8.6%, which fell to 3.9% last season. Adams was well over the touchdown rate in those three seasons, while a set of injuries impacted last year.
It's difficult to predict injuries, but if he stays healthy, Adams can outperform these totals. I am taking the over on both lines of 1,200.5 receiving yards and 9.5 receiving touchdowns because of Adams' target share and overall consistency.