Texans Try Once, Fail Twice
Down 14-0 at the start of the second half to the New York Giants, the Houston Texans faced a 4th-and-1 on their own 46-yard line. At this point, with just a 9.0% chance to win, Bill O'Brien made the correct call to go for it. A successful conversion means a 12.9% win probability, while a punt means about an 8.6% chance to win. The break-even point going for it is far below an estimated 65% conversion rate on 4th-and-1. Alfred Blue ran off right tackle and was stuffed, turning the ball over on downs. The Giants would kick a field goal to go up 17-0.
On the very next drive, the Texans would face another 4th-and-1, but decided to kick a field goal. What led Bill O'Brien to change his mind?