The Best NFL Week 1 Bets: The Titans Can Topple the Broncos in Denver
We're all itching for action in the sports world. Whether it's esports or horse racing or UFC. A lot of us just want that sweet, sweet sweat that comes with betting and DFS.
We're still months out from the NFL season, but we've got some options. A lot of them, actually. NFL odds is loaded up with preseason props and over/unders. They also have lines posted for every Week 1 matchup.
I'm here to lean on numberFire's preseason power rankings and find value spots.
Most Valuable Week 1 Matchups
I pulled the Week 1 moneylines and information from our game projections page in order to compare the biggest leverage matchups.
| Team | Opponent | nF Win % |
Moneyline % | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | Denver | 54.1% | 45.5% | 8.6% |
| Dallas | LA Rams | 66.4% | 59.0% | 7.4% |
| Houston | Kansas City | 28.4% | 23.3% | 5.1% |
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 33.9% | 29.0% | 4.9% |
| Las Vegas | Carolina | 54.8% | 50.5% | 4.3% |
| Arizona | San Francisco | 27.8% | 24.4% | 3.4% |
| Washington | Philadelphia | 33.0% | 30.3% | 2.7% |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 67.1% | 65.0% | 2.1% |
The biggest discrepancy belongs in the Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos matchup, the final game of Week 1. That's a matchup we project the Titans to win 54.1% of the time, so that alone doesn't scream value. What does, though, is is that the Titans are listed as +120 underdogs on the moneyline. No team has a bigger gap in moneyline odds and projected win probability than the Titans.
The Dallas Cowboys are a very public team, and it follows that they're listed at -150 to go over 9.5 wins. Our data loves Dallas, too, ranking them as the fifth-best squad in the league. Their nERD (3.61) is 2.29 points better than the Los Angeles Rams' (1.32).
The next one is tough to love, as the Houston Texans are trending down fast after some strange moves and they're traveling to Arrowhead to face the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. However, you don't need to break the bank if you back the Texans: they're +330 on the moneyline to upset the Chiefs. Not bad for a boost to the bankroll for a small-unit wager.
We're looking at a similar bet next, though the Jacksonville Jaguars are at home for their matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. Jacksonville wins his game only 33.9% of the time in our simulations, but we have the home Jaguars available at +245 to win outright. Our algorithm suggests value on that number.
