How to Bet Every Philadelphia Eagles Game in 2020
The NFL season is around the corner -- even if that corner is a little farther down the block than it may normally be. Despite that, FanDuel Sportsbook has given us tons and tons and tons (did I mention tons?) of offerings to wager on for the 2020 season.
One of them includes game-by-game spreads and moneylines for a few teams, including the Philadelphia Eagles.
Which Eagles games offer value?
So, we don't know the week-by-week schedule for the NFL, but we do know home and road opponents for the year. Thus, we know every matchup and can adjust for home/road context.
Using win totals and betting lines attached to them, we can approximate point differential for a team. If you're a numberFire regular, you'll know our nERD metric well. It indicates expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field. Regressing win totals and betting odds on those totals allowed me to approximate nERD for 2020.
From there, we can simulate a team's schedule a few thousand times to see where value is available.
The Schedule and Results
The table here lists the Eagles' home/road status and their opponent. Next, it's the actual spread and moneyline listed on FanDuel Sportsbook.
After that, it's the average point differential for the Eagles in the simulated games. This also reflects the expected nERD differential between the teams going into the matchup. Over 10,000 simulations, things average out to around the same number. I also listed the percentage of games in which the Eagles covered the spread.
The final two columns indicate moneyline and outright win information: the percentage of simulated games won and the value on the moneyline (compared to their listed moneyline odds).
The Eagles come in with a beatable schedule. The expected point differential among their average opponent is just the 19th-toughest there is.
Still, they're right in that range of expectations (9.5 wins with -115 on the under) where they could be either an 8-8 team or a 10-6 team, and nobody would really be surprised. (Simulating out the full season gives the Eagles a win expectation of 9.24.)
Contrast that with their divisional foes, the Dallas Cowboys, who are -150 to go over 9.5 wins. Based solely on that betting info, they're a better team than the Eagles.
Last year, the Eagles were pretty much exactly average, ranking 15th in adjusted offense and 16th in adjusted defense, based on numberFire's metrics.
The Best Value Spots
The Eagles get to host two of their tougher opponents: the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens. Both of those teams have double-digit win totals (New Orleans is at 10.5 and Baltimore is at 11.5), but both teams have action on the under (-120 for New Orleans and -125 for Baltimore), same as the Eagles. Running the simulations 10,000 times for each game uncovers some cover value for Philadelphia at home as a result.
The Green Bay Packers are similar to the Eagles with -120 odds on their under (9.0 wins), and sentiment is rightfully down on them after a poor draft. The Eagles should be about a point better than Green Bay, based on the betting trends, and with potentially lessened impact of home field advantage for Green Bay, the Eagles look good to cover their +2.5-point spread.
The Cleveland Browns and Seattle Seahawks are common teams in this series so far, as -- you guessed it -- bettors are on the under. Cleveland is -130 to go under 8.5 wins, and Seattle is -155 to go under 9.5 wins. The Eagles' expectations should be higher, and that discrepancy points to value in these two matchups as well.