Fantasy Football: DeVante Parker Is a Steal at His Current ADP
Prior to 2019, DeVante Parker had played four seasons in the NFL. He had never reached 60 receptions, 800 yards, or 5 scores. Last year, he cleared all of those thresholds...by a mile.
The 27-year-old caught 72 passes, resulting in 1,202 yards -- fourth-best at his position -- and 9 touchdowns. He displayed the talent that had made him the 14th overall pick in the 2015 draft.
Parker's sublime season paid off for fantasy owners in a big way. According to 4for4, Parker had the highest win rate of any receiver in FFPC best-ball leagues -- meaning he was on a higher percentage of winning teams than any other wideout. Over at ESPN, Parker was the fifth-most common player on fantasy championship rosters.
You certainly won't get that value again in 2020, but let's take a look at where he should be drafted.
In the three months between the Super Bowl and now, Parker has an ADP of 57.4 in Best Ball leagues on BestBall10s -- the 24th receiver off the board. Reminder -- he was the WR7 in half-PPR leagues last year.
That means Parker is getting drafted towards the end of the fifth round in 12-team leagues, and at the latter half of the sixth in 10-teamers.
Was 2019 A Fluke?
Among wideouts with at least 100 targets, Parker finished fourth with a Success Rate of 94.44 percent and third in NEP per target at 0.93.
Football Outsiders had Parker ranked 8th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) at wide receiver -- in essence, their metric for total value. However, they had Parker ranked 17th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which is essentially their metric for value per play.
All in all, none of these stats indicate that his 2019 season was anything close to a fluke.
One of the biggest question marks surrounding Parker in 2020 is going to be the presence of one Preston Williams.
In eight games with Williams on the field last year, Parker averaged 6.5 targets per game and was on pace to post a line of 56 catches for 800 yards and 8 scores. In the eight contests after the rookie got hurt, Parker was garnering an additional three looks per game while posting a 16-game pace of 88 receptions, 1,604 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Those are some pretty stark splits.
It's worth noting that a lot of those splits can also be attributed to Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick. In the 11 games after Fitzmagic took back the starting job for good, Parker averaged 9.1 targets, resulting in a pace of 86 catches for 1,415 yards and 10 scores. With Rosen, Parker was averaging under five looks per contest.
The good news is that the Miami Dolphins didn't add any receivers in free agency or the draft. The bad news is that Williams, Albert Wilson, Michael Gesicki, and Jakeem Grant will all be competing with Parker for targets on a team that will more than likely want to run more, given their additions of Matt Breida and Jordan Howard. Miami had a pass-to-run ratio of 1.76 in 2019 -- expect that to drop in 2020.
Right off the bat, I'll say that Parker's current ADP is far too low. He should not be the 24th receiver off the board. You should be ecstatic if you get him at the end of the fifth.
Is there some risk involved? Sure. But how many of the 23 receivers going ahead of him are risk-free? Not many.
Our Editor-in-Chief, JJ Zachariason, projects Parker to catch 77.2 passes, totaling 1,170.7 yards and 6.3 scores. That would've made him the WR14 in 2019.
I'm very comfortable taking him in the fourth -- more than a full round ahead of where he's going now.