NFL

NFL Betting: The Biggest Over/Under Shifts Since the Draft

Not all over/unders are created equally, and that's something we should take note of while betting NFL futures.

Take, for example, the four teams listed with over/unders of 9.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook: the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The totals are the same, but the odds on them are vastly different. The Cowboys are -150 to hit the over, meaning they're around 60% likely to hit the over. The Buccaneers are -135 (57%), the Eagles are -105 (51%), and the Seahawks are +130 (43%).

In general, win totals don't really change, but the odds attached to them do. We can use that information to estimate winning percentage and nERD, which indicates expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field. We can use that to find the biggest tangible shifts in win expectations.

These teams saw the biggest shifts after the dust settled from the draft.

Biggest Fallers

Houston Texans
Win Total: 7.5
Pre-Draft Over Odds: -120
Current Over Odds: +100
Expected nERD Change: -1.09

The Houston Texans had only five picks in the NFL Draft, and only two of them were inside the top 125. With those, they addressed defense: Ross Blacklock (a defensive tackle) 40th overall and Jonathan Greenard (an outside linebacker) at 90th overall. Last year, their defense ranked just 21st overall based on numberFire's metrics. Their top-10 offense lost DeAndre Hopkins and spent just their fifth-round pick at receiver Isaiah Coulter.

Los Angeles Rams
Win Total: 8.5
Pre-Draft Over Odds: -120
Current Over Odds: -105
Expected nERD Change: -0.92

The Los Angeles Rams didn't have a first-round pick and went with two skill position players in the second round. They took Florida State running back Cam Akers 52nd overall and then likely reached for the speedy-but-older Van Jefferson from Florida 57th overall. They were top-half in both offense (16th) and defense (9th) last season but haven't made a big impact since.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Win Total: 5.0
Pre-Draft Over Odds: +100
Current Over Odds: +125
Expected nERD Change: -0.82

The Jacksonville Jaguars were already a bottom-barrel team, but their over odds on a measly 5.0 wins fell from +100 to +125. That means they're only 44% likely to surpass 5.0 wins. Jacksonville had 12 picks in the draft and included some intriguing prospects: cornerback C.J. Henderson, linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson, and multi-purpose receiver Laviska Shenault. It wasn't enough to move the needle for the Jags, who let Andy Dalton get signed by the Dallas Cowboys. They'll be going into the 2020 season with Gardner Minshew as their starter.

Next-Biggest Fallers: New England Patriots (-0.33), Green Bay Packers (-0.33), Chicago Bears (-0.29)

Biggest Risers

Minnesota Vikings
Win Total: 8.5
Pre-Draft Over Odds: -130
Current Over Odds: -150
Expected nERD Change: +0.90

The Minnesota Vikings had 15 picks in the draft, most in the draft. They already had action on their over (-130 on 8.5 wins), and it's now up to -150. Minnesota, last year, had the seventh-ranked adjusting passing offense and the sixth-best overall defense. They bolstered their roster in the draft, and the betting trends followed suit. It helps that the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers saw their win odds dip after their iffy drafts.

Minnesota replaced Stefon Diggs with Justin Jefferson 22nd overall and had two more top-60 picks (cornerback Jeff Gladney at 31st and offensive lineman Ezra Cleveland at 58th).

Cincinnati Bengals
Win Total: 5.5
Pre-Draft Over Odds: -105
Current Over Odds: -130
Expected nERD Change: +0.98

The Cincinnati Bengals enter the Joe Burrow era and already parted ways with Andy Dalton. The overall expectations are low on the Bengals at just 5.5 wins, but they've gained traction overall and grew nearly a full point in expected nERD. They have a long way to go after ranking 26th in offense and 30th in defense last year, based on numberFire's metrics.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Total: 9.5
Pre-Draft Over Odds: -105
Current Over Odds: -135
Expected nERD Change: +2.01

Tampa Bay's climb continues. They used the 13th pick on tackle Tristan Wirfs and then nabbed safety Antoine Winfield with the 45th pick. They addressed running back in the third round with Ke'Shawn Vaughn (76th). Of course, this alone doesn't account for their new additions of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but the Bucs are in position to be one of the better teams in the league.

Next-Biggest Risers: Tennessee Titans (+0.62), Detroit Lions (+0.47), Miami Dolphins (+0.44), Dallas Cowboys (+0.39), Cleveland Browns (+0.28)