How to Bet Every New York Jets Game in 2020
The NFL season is around the corner -- even if that corner is a little farther down the block than it may normally be. Despite that, FanDuel Sportsbook has given us tons and tons and tons (did I mention tons?) of offerings to wager on for the 2020 season.
One of them includes game-by-game spreads and moneylines for a few teams, including the New York Jets.
Which Jets games offer value?
So, we don't know the week-by-week schedule for the NFL, but we do know home and road opponents for the year. Thus, we know every matchup and can adjust for home/road context.
Using win totals and betting lines attached to them, we can approximate point differential for a team. If you're a numberFire regular, you'll know our nERD metric well. It indicates expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field. Regressing win totals and betting odds on those totals allowed me to approximate nERD for 2020.
From there, we can simulate a team's schedule a few thousand times to see where value is available.
The Schedule and Results
The table here lists the Jets' home/road status and their opponent. Next, it's the actual spread and moneyline listed on FanDuel Sportsbook.
After that, it's the average point differential for the Jets in the simulated games. This also reflects the expected nERD differential between the teams going into the matchup. Over 10,000 simulations, things average out to around the same number. I also listed the percentage of games in which the Jets covered the spread.
The final two columns indicate moneyline and outright win information: the percentage of simulated games won and the value on the moneyline (compared to their listed moneyline odds).
The Jets face the third-toughest schedule there is in football, based on expected nERD using the win totals and betting trends. That's a rough pull for a team that was just 7-9 last season (despite an expected win-loss record of 5.6-10.4).
Their average spread is +4.0 overall (+0.9 at home and +7.1 on the road, including eight games with a spread of +6.5 or greater). Their individual win total is posted at 6.5 with some action on the over (-115).
While the Jets may not vie for the playoffs, there is a lot of value in their future betting odds, given the betting trends.
The Best Value Spots
The public perception around the Seattle Seahawks is pretty poor, as the over on their 9.5 win listing is +130. That bumps down their expected point differential more toward an 8-8 team than a 10-6 team, and the Jets could play in Seattle with no crowd. The discrepancy in the betting totals indicates a spread of 4.15 points as opposed to the listed 8.0. Even if the Seahawks play above that level, this is one of the best single-game values on the board.
The next best value spots are also road games against the Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams have win totals around 8 (8.5 for the Rams and 8.0 for the Chargers) with middling action on both for the most part. The expected spread is too high in each, given that the Jets could be a seven-win team again (based on the win odds).
The math indicates that both of the Jets/Patriots matchups offer value here. New England is still -115 to hit the over on 9.0 wins, but the gap between them and the Jets is a little overstated, assuming the win totals are accurate.
Hosting the Cleveland Browns (+110 to go over 8.5 wins), the Jets covered more than 57% of the time when adjusting for homefield advantage (even while lowering it more than usual, given the likelihood of playing without fans).
Even though the Jets have a lot of big spreads against them, we can hop on early and target them in a few obvious spots.