After Two Weeks, What Should We Expect From Brian Quick in 2014?
After totaling 173 receiving yards in two weeks, Brian Quick has become a popular waiver wire pickup, leading the St. Louis Rams in receiving just two weeks into the season. And with 16 points in ESPN standard leagues, Quick is one of the top 30 fantasy wideouts through Week 2.
But is the third-year receiver who's never had more than 302 yards in a season the real deal?
Through two weeks, it's looking like he could be. Quick has been targeted 18 times by Austin Davis and the now benched Shaun Hill, catching 14 balls for 173 yards, 12.4 yards per catch. With six more targets than any other Ram - Jared Cook has the second most with 12 - and four more than every other St. Louis receiver combined, Quick seems to be a favorite target of the St. Louis quarterbacks.
Taking a look at numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, used to measure how many points a player adds or subtracts from his team, Quick has been pretty good to kick off the season.
|Reception NEP||Per Target||Target NEP||Catch Rate||Success Rate|
Among the 28 wide receivers with 10 or more catches, Quick ranks 13th in Reception NEP - the number of points added on catches only. Compared to the 61 wideouts with 10 or more targets, Quick ranks 12th in Target NEP (points added on all targets), 24th in Reception NEP per target, 6th in catch rate and 11th in Success Rate (the percentage of plays that contribute positively towards a player's NEP).
This, too, comes from mostly a third-string quarterback.
But while Quick has become the best receiver in St. Louis, he's been mostly volume dependent. With just a 0.61 Reception NEP per target, Quick's success has been heavily influenced by his targets. Quick's high catch and Success Rate have helped him turn a large number of targets into a good start to the season, but if those targets start going to other St. Louis wideouts, Quick may see a drop in his numbers.
He isn't going to be a top 10 fantasy wideout - he hasn't even caught a touchdown yet, although neither has any other St. Louis receiver - but if he continues to get his large share of targets and decent enough quarterback play, Quick should have a fine season. Again, he has more targets than any other Rams' wideout combined through two games.
Quick's top historical comparable is Amani Toomer's 2008 season, a 95.78 percent match, in which Toomer caught 48 balls for 580 yards and four touchdowns, good for 82 fantasy points. If he can match that with pretty inept quarterback play, he'll be a decent WR3 and flex option while having a successful season.
For the rest of the year, our projections see Quick getting 51.29 receptions for 714.39 yards and 4.56 touchdowns, topping the Toomer comparison, good for 98.64 fantasy points and the 39th best wide receiver in fantasy football. If he continues to get his targets - he's seen 27.7% of the team's looks, which is 10th-highest in the league - Quick should have no trouble reaching this projection.