NFL Betting: Will Zach Ertz Fly Over His Receiving Yards Prop?
Coming off 15 games in 2019 for 88 receptions, 916 yards, and 6 touchdowns, FanDuel Sportsbook sets his over/under total at 924.5 receiving yards (-112). Not only is 2020 a redemption year for the Eagles after their postseason loss, but Ertz's numbers decreased after posting career-highs in receptions (116), yards (1,163), and touchdowns (8) in 2018.
Last year, Carson Wentz played a full 16-game regular season for the first time since his rookie year (2016) but suffered a concussion in a wild card game versus the Seattle Seahawks on a questionable hit from Jadeveon Clowney. For Ertz to hit the over on his prop, Wentz must be healthy, as the Eagles' backup quarterbacks have combined for 30 pass attempts in three seasons of experience.
With health returning to the Eagles' lineup in 2020, this could be their best offensive season since 2016, led by Ertz.
Fly Eagles Fly
The Eagles' offense has an array of talent and weapons, but they dealt with injuries all around. The team's top two receivers missed a combined 19 games in 2019, and Ertz has proved to be the most stable and reliable skill player. Alshon Jeffery missed six games and DeSean Jackson missed 13 last season, yet Wentz tossed a career-high 4,039 yards and his lowest interception total (7). If Wentz can throw for over 4,000 and 27 touchdowns with Ertz and Dallas Goedert as the two primary options, 2020 should be no different.
Ertz finished top five among NFL tight ends in snap share (90%), route participation (82%), targets (135), target share (23.8%), receptions (88), receiving yards (916), complete air yards (666), and total target distance (1201) in 2019. He recorded his second-lowest catch rate since 2014 (65.2%) on the second-most targets (135) of his career last season.
Goedert ate up a career-high 87 targets last season as the No. 2 tight end, and Ertz combined for 222 of Wentz's 607 pass attempt targets (36.5%). That's up from their 2018 tight end totals of 200 targets on 596 pass attempts (33.5%) from two different quarterbacks, and those numbers have continually increased over the last three seasons. In 2017, Eagles tight ends recorded totals of 175 receptions of 541 targets (32.3%).
Tight ends have become a prominent threat in the Eagles' offense since Wentz and head coach Doug Pederson arrived in 2016, and with the wide receiver position in limbo, that gives Ertz an opportunity to hit the over on 924.5 receiving yards.
Even though Ertz only surpassed 924 receiving yards once in his career (2018), he would have in 2019 if he played a full 16-game season. He missed one game because of a kidney laceration and rib fracture last season, finishing only 8.5 yards from his 2020 prop. Ertz was one of three tight ends to record over 900 yards in 2018, and he finished fourth in 2019 (1,163) and third in 2017 (824). He's finished top 10 in receiving yards for tight ends every season since 2015, including four straight seasons finishing top five.
Take The Over
Ertz is validated as a top-five tight end in the league, and since 2015, he's received 123.8 targets per season and recorded five straight seasons of over 100 targets and 74 receptions. He will need to average 57.8 yards per game to total 925 receiving yards, and he's averaged 60 or more in his last two seasons. He's totaled 10 yards per reception or more every year of his career and only missed 6 of 112 career games.
Ertz has been a machine since being paired with his franchise quarterback, averaging 929.7 yards per season since Wentz came into the league.
This bet is set at an even payout of -112 for the over or under, and I like the over here, as I expect Ertz to have another Pro Bowl season in 2020.