NFL Draft Betting: How Many First-Round Receivers Will Be Selected?
This year's wide receiver class is a good and deep yield, and we could see some of the NFL's best playmakers for years to come hear their name called at the end of April this year.
In fact, despite just two first-round receivers in 2019, FanDuel Sportsbook has set the over/under on first-round receivers taken at 5.5.
The over is listed at +116, meaning it's considered about 46.3% likely to hit the over -- and that gives us a value spot to attack.
Historical Precedent and Current Draft Projections
Again, last year, just two receivers were taken in the first round, and since 2000, 77 receivers were drafted in the first round, via ProFootballReference. That's 3.9 per year and well off the mark we'd need for this bet to hit the over.
We have, however, seen six or more receivers called in the first round in 6 of the past 20 years (30.0%). Only once (2004) were there seven first-round receivers drafted. For good reason, the favored bet is the under.
Why believe that this is one of the uncommon years we'll see the over on 5.5? Well, via NFLMockDraftDatabase, the consensus first round of nearly 300 aggregated drafts features six first-round receivers, enough to hit the over.
Tee Higgins (22nd), Laviska Shenault Jr. (24th), and Jalen Reagor (30th) also find themselves inside the consensus first round.
But wait, there's more!
NFLMockDraftDatabase also lists Justin Jefferson (21st, peak of 21st), Denzel Mims (36th, peak of 36), and Brandon Aiyuk (38th, peak of 34) right on the brink of the first round. While it's possible the depth at the position allows these players to slide to the front of the second round, we've got plenty of reason to like the over here with the value on our sides.
Though the under has hit four straight years, this draft class easily has the potential to buck the trend.