3 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target for the Conference Championships
One of the crucial aspects of daily fantasy football is unearthing cheap production.
Our projections can help you do just that by allowing you to sort players by their point-per-dollar value. A lot of times, the top value plays come as a result of injury situations, meaning it's imperative to see inactives before setting your lineups.
When looking for a salary-saving option, check out one of these players this week.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs ($5,200)
Watkins' floor is low, and he has gone for double-digit FanDuel points just once since his three-score explosion in Week 1. But that one double-digit outing was last week, when he made two grabs for 76 yards versus the Houston Texans on his way to 10.0 FanDuel points, and Watkins is a cheap way to get exposure to a Kansas City Chiefs offense that boasts an implied total of 30.00, which is 3.75 points more than any other team on this slate.
In terms of FanDuel points per game allowed to receivers, the Tennessee Titans are the worst pass defense on this slate as they gave up 28.2 FanDuel points per game to the position, the 14th-most in the league. KC hung 32 on Tennessee when they met earlier this season, and Watkins saw nine targets in that one, making five catches for 39 yards.
The masses will likely flock to Patrick Mahomes, Damien Williams, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in this Chiefs offense. Watkins won't be chalk, and he gets you access to Mahomes. Plus, the cheap salary can help you jam in studs elsewhere.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Niners ($5,800)
Last week didn't go so well for those who rostered Raheem Mostert as Tevin Coleman stole the show with 22 carries, 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. As a result, Coleman and Mostert have flipped salaries. After being $5,200 a week ago, Coleman is now $6,500, while Mostert's price has dropped nearly $1,000 -- from $6,700 to $5,800.
I'm not going to act like I know how this backfield will be split on Sunday, but what I do know is that the usage last week doesn't line up with how Coleman and Mostert shared the volume down the stretch in the regular season. In the four games prior to the Divisional Round, Mostert totaled 35 carries to Coleman's 17. Mostert got at least 10 carries in all four games while Coleman never toted the rock more than five times in any game in that span.
So as quickly as the scales tipped in Coleman's favor last weekend, they could just as easily tilt back in Mostert's direction on Sunday. We project Mostert for 11.23 carries and Coleman for 10.30, and given what happened a week ago, Mostert may not see as much ownership as he should for a quality running back on a big favorite (the San Francisco 49ers are 7.5-point favorites).
Dion Lewis, RB, Titans ($4,800)
This isn't for the faint of heart, but I don't mind Dion Lewis this weekend. Lewis makes sense if you're stacking the Chiefs as he figures to play meaningful snaps if the Titans get behind. That's the expected game script as Tennessee is a 7.5-point underdog.
The problem is you could've said that exact same thing in each of the last two weeks, but it didn't play out that way as Tennessee upset the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens. That led to bell-cow usage for Derrick Henry, who has been the story of these playoffs.
In the regular season, though, Henry's lack of pass-game involvement made him scary in DFS. Henry logged just 24 targets all year, and in losses in 2019, he made seven combined catches while averaging 72.7 total yards per game. In wins, Henry averaged 145.6 total yards.
Will the Titans actually face a negative game script this time? If it happens, Lewis isn't a terrible dart throw.
Lewis averaged a meager 14.4 total yards per game in wins, but in losses, he posted 34.9 total yards -- nothing special but it is more of a role. From Week 6 on, Tennessee suffered three double-digit losses, and Henry played in two those games. In those two contests, Lewis played 41% and 47% of the snaps and saw eight total targets, catching all of them.
The floor here is as low as it gets -- we saw that last week when Lewis posted a zero on a mere seven snaps -- but if you're building under the idea of a KC romp, Lewis is a cheap way to run it back. The $4,800 price tag sure frees you up to spend with the rest of your roster.