3 NFL FanDuel Stacks for the Divisional Round
This week we’re focusing in on the Divisional playoff round, where there are four games spread out between Saturday and Sunday.
The Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs game currently has the highest implied total this week at 51-points and makes for a great game stack, while the Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers game is projected to be the lowest-scoring game this week and may make for some contrarian DFS stacks.
In this article, I will discuss my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player ownership projections.
It probably comes as no surprise that the first stack of the Divisional playoff round is with the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson. He’s been a DFS all-star this season and I expect that trend to continue this week against the Tennessee Titans.
Per our DFS heat map, the Ravens currently have an implied total of 28.0-points against the Titans, which is the second most this week of any team – only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. I expect them to attack the Titans via the passing game, while mixing in rushes from Jackson.
The Titans were stout this year against the rush - ranking 6th overall in rushing defense during the regular season, per our numbers – but were average when defending against the pass – ranking 14th overall. Plus, the Ravens’ starting running back Mark Ingram suffered a calf injury in Week 16 of the regular season, and he has yet to practice in full since that injury. While it sounds like he will play on Saturday, his injury gives us all the more reason as to why Jackson should control this game.
Jackson is currently projected to score 26.1 FanDuel points this week, per our DFS projections, which is the most of any quarterback playing in the Divisional round. With both his passing and rushing upside, he brings a higher ceiling score than any other quarterback as well.
Stacking up Jackson with his tight end Mark Andrews makes a lot of sense this week. Per PFF’s tight end matchup chart, Andrews will face Titans’ safety Kevin Byard in this matchup. PFF has Andrews at a 23% advantage in this matchup, which is the best among all tight ends this week.
Andrews was arguably Jacksons’ favorite target this season, leading the team with a 24.34% target share. He also led the team with a 27.94% red zone target share – which translated to 9 of his 10 receiving touchdowns coming from inside the red zone.
With that amount of opportunity in a great matchup, Andrews is a great stack with Jackson this week.
Green Bay Packers
After coming off a bye in the first round of the playoffs, I like the Green Bay Packers stack of Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams.
This season wasn’t the most efficient of Rodgers’ career, but giving him an extra week of preparation for the biggest game of the season certainly makes him an intriguing play. After having missed the playoffs the last two seasons, I expect him to have a chip on his shoulder as well.
The last time the Packers played the Seattle Seahawks was back in November of last season. The Seahawks went on to win that game by a score of 27-24, but not because of Rodgers’ play. Rodgers finished that game with 332 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and a 70% completion percentage.
He’ll have every opportunity to mimic those numbers again this week, especially behind the Packers’ solid offensive line. Per Football Outsiders, the Packers offensive line finished in the top-10 of pass protection this season. PFF also grades their offensive line with a 31% matchup advantage over Seattle’s defensive line – the highest advantage of any o-line playing this week.
Assuming Rodgers has enough time to make plays behind that offensive line, he should be looking Davante Adams way a lot. Adams led all Packers’ receivers this year with a 23.50% target share, which was 12.04% more than any other receiver/tight end. He’s also Rodgers go-to target in the red zone, leading all Packers’ players with a 26.92% red zone target share.
The only wide receiver projected for more points FanDuel points this week is Tyreek Hill, but Adams is expected to lead all receivers in targets.
Adams is expected to match up against Seattle’s cornerback Tre Flowers, and PFF is giving Adams a 12% advantage in that matchup. Flowers currently ranks as the fourth-worst cornerback playing this week, of 24 qualified cornerbacks. Adams is matchup proof most weeks and should have his way with Flowers in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans
The last stack that I like this weekend is a game stack between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans.
This game is projected to be the highest-scoring game in the Divisional playoff round, currently set at an over/under of 51.0-points. Two high scoring offenses are set to face off in what could be a shootout.
With the amount of talent on both offenses, you can run this game stack in several different ways. If Will Fuller is deemed fully healthy heading into this game, I really like the upside that he brings. Otherwise, he’s tough to trust due to his injury history.
My favorite game stack here is loading up Chiefs players and then running it back with a Texans player. I particularly like Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and then running it back with Johnson.
Mahomes is fully healthy heading into this playoff game, and we all know what he’s capable of doing when he’s at full strength. Especially considering the number of offensive weapons he has around him. He shouldn’t have any problem running up his numbers against a Texans defense who’s allowed 21.1 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season – the fourth-most across the league.
We currently have Mahomes projected to throw for 45.5 more yards than any other quarterback this week, and he’s the only quarterback projected to throw for more than two touchdowns. And being that he’s $800 cheaper than Lamar Jackson, Mahomes offers the best price per dollar value at the quarterback position this week as well.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce make for a great stack with Mahomes in this contest. Both players have great matchups this week, according to PFF.
Hill is currently expected to match up against Texans’ cornerback Gareon Conley. Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, Hill currently has a 25% advantage over Conley – the best among all wide receivers playing in the Divisional round. Hill also leads all wide receivers in projected FanDuel points this week, per our DFS projections.
Kelce will lineup against Texans’ safety Tashaun Gipson this week, and PFF gives Kelce a 17% advantage in this matchup – the second-highest among tight ends. Kelce is also projected to lead all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and targets this week.
Finally, I like running this stack back with Duke Johnson. Now, this isn’t someone I would typically play during the regular season but considering there are only four games being played this week, trying to find a contrarian edge within your lineups can be crucial in trying to win a GPP contest. Johnson should be on fewer than 10% of lineups, making him a contrarian play.
The reason I like Johnson in this spot is due to the projected game script. The Chiefs are currently favored to win this game by 9.5-points, which means the Texans will likely be playing from behind in this game.
While Johnson doesn’t receive a lot of opportunity week in and week out, he tends to see an uptick in his workload when the Texans are playing from behind. He’s a terrific playmaker, particularly in the passing game. In his last six games, he’s seen targets of: 6, 8, 3, 4, 6 and 3. He’s also scored two touchdowns during that six-game stretch.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)