Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 17
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week, iur top tournament play, Drew Brees, finished as the sixth-best quarterback on the week. However, Matt Ryan, our best overall play of the week and second-best tournament play, and Russel Wilson both failed to crack the top eight. Lamar Jackson, our top cash-game play, once again came through with a top-four finish.
Week 17 is always a little different than the other weeks of the season. With many teams eliminated from playoff contention, we will see players we have not seen much of all season have big fantasy weeks while many studs rest on the bench. Let's finish the season strong in Week 17.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Patrick Mahomes ($8,600) -- The former MVP gets a home matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers with a lot to play for in the final week of the season. With a win, the Kansas City Chiefs guarantee themselves the 3 or 2 seed, depending on the result of the New England Patriots' game. With a loss, they risk falling to the 4 seed. The Chargers have done well against the pass this season, allowing the third fewest passing yards in the league. However, in a game with the third highest over/under on the main slate, we can expect a lot of points from this Chiefs' offense. Mahomes is the second best point-per-dollar value play of the week, according to our models.
Dak Prescott ($8,000) -- Dak started off the season hot, scoring more than 20 FanDuel points in nine of his first 12 games, but he has failed to hit that mark in each of his last three contests. However, we can expect a big day from the Dallas Cowboys' offense this week as they are tied for the third highest implied team total in a must-win Week 17 matchup with Washington. Washington has the sixth worst passing defense, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics and have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Prescott is not expected to practice this week with a shoulder injury, but he is still expected to play on Sunday. He is the top point-per-dollar play of the week, according to our projections.
Robert Griffin III ($7,000) -- The former Heisman winner will get his first start of the season with the Baltimore Ravens locked into the 1 seed in the East. Griffin will be playing in a Jackson-like role but at a much cheaper price. Priced outside the top-20 quarterbacks, Griffin will likely be one of the chalkiest plays of the entire season. Our models, unsurprisingly, have Griffin projected for the most rushing yards at the quarterback position in Week 17. With a safe rushing floor at a cheap price, Griffin is hard to ignore in cash this week, even in a tough matchup.
Ryan Tannehill ($7,900) -- With Griffin likely to be popular, pivoting to a different quarterback in cash will be a high-risk, high-reward proposition in Week 17. Tannehill profiles as the perfect pivot this week in a must-win game for the Tennessee Titans. He offers one of the safest floors in the league, averaging 23.3 FanDuel points since Week 12, with only one performance under 23 points in that span. Tannehill has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in eight of his last nine games. This week, Tanny gets a matchup with the Houston Texans, who have a bottom-10 pass defense, according to our numbers. The Texans have allowed the sixth most points to opposing quarterbacks. Our models do not love Tannehill as much as I do this week, projecting him as just the 15th best value in Week 17.
Quarterback to Avoid
Deshaun Watson ($8,000) -- The only quarterback who has scored more points than Watson this season is Lamar Jackson. The reason for steering clear of Watson this week is not analytical. The Texans have little to play for in Week 17, making it likely Watson does not play the entire game. The Texans need a win and a Chiefs loss to move from the 3 seed to the 3 seed. The Chiefs currently have a 73.8% chance to win, according to our models. The Texans will know the result of the Chiefs game before they play, making it more likely than not Watson does not play the entire game if KC wins their game. We need to be looking elsewhere in Week 17 unless the Bolts beat the Chiefs.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.