FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Afternoon-Slate Helper: Week 16
The Week 16 afternoon NFL DFS slate on FanDuel has four matchups, with two kicking off at 4:05 pm EST and two at 4:25 pm. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals combine for the highest total on the slate at 51.5, while the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions sit at just 37.5, easily the lowest.
Our NFL DFS matchup heat map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s check out the best plays at various prices on this short slate.
High Priced Studs
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($8,200)
With a matchup against the Carolina Panthers and Rashaad Penny done for the season, Chris Carson smashed in the best possible spot last week. His price adjusted hard, as he's now the most third-most expensive player on this afternoon slate. That could deter some DFS players from rostering him, but he's arguably in just as good of a spot.
The Arizona Cardinals rank 20th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, which is a slight improvement over Carolina's dead-last rank. But the Seattle Seahawks are favored by 9.5 points and also have a massive implied team total of 30.5 points. Arizona also plays at the second-fastest pace, according to PlayerProfiler, meaning the play total in this game could get inflated for both sides of the ball.
Chris Carson: 270 carries, 1,190 yards, 7 TD, 36 catches, 246 yards, 2 TD
Ezekiel Elliott: 270 carries, 1,188 yards, 11 TD, 44 catches, 381 yards, 1 TD
Just found it interesting that their att were same, and yards basically same. Carson has +1 fumble over Zeke last 2 seasons.
— Field Gulls (@FieldGulls) December 19, 2019
This sets up Carson for a massive workload, as Seattle will likely run the ball with a lead throughout the contest. Our projections have him as the best fantasy point value per dollar on the slate.
Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($7,700)
The state of the Dallas Cowboys hinges entirely on the health of Dak Prescott. His throwing shoulder injury seems to be a major cause for concern, as he hasn't logged a full practice all week.
The good news is that he claims he'll be able to play, which would obviously be ideal considering his 0.29 Passing NEP per drop back ranks fifth among starting quarterbacks with at least 150 drop backs. The Philadelphia Eagles are also a pass-funnel defense, ranking fifth in schedule-adjusted run defense but 23rd in pass defense.
Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup would both be set to smash, as Philly has allowed the seventh-most yards and third-most touchdowns to receivers. Keep an eye on Prescott's health, but if he suits up, stacking the Dallas passing game will be an excellent option.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($7,600)
Tyler Lockett finally shook loose for a productive day, totaling 22 fantasy points against the Carolina Panthers. That outing was more than his previous four games combined, showing that he's likely over his leg injury that hindered him for the past few weeks.
It sounds like Tyler Lockett ran the wrong route on his TD catch. Hey, whatever works pic.twitter.com/txEM32jABO
— Parker Lewis (@ParkerLewisJR) December 17, 2019
Lockett should keep it going against the Cardinals, who rank 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. He's also playing out of the slot on over 60 percent of his routes, meaning he should avoid Patrick Peterson on the outside -- not that his coverage is great anymore.
Still, he'll be on the rookie cornerback, Byron Murphy. Lockett presents a speed mismatch (4.40 vs. 4.55), and Murphy has allowed eight scores and hasn't logged a pick this season. Our projections have Lockett as the highest scoring receiver on the slate.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,500)
The Oakland Raiders are just bad on defense. Not only do they rank 31st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, but they also get torched deep often, allowing the highest percentage of explosive pass plays (15-plus yards) this season, per Sharp Football.
WRs averaging double-digit yards per target (min. 50 targets)
A.J. Brown (12.1)
Stefon Diggs (12.1)
Mike Williams (11.3)
Chris Godwin (11.1)
Kenny Golladay (10.5)
Amari Cooper (10.5)
James Washington (10.4)
Tyler Lockett (10.4)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 16, 2019
With Keenan Allen being priced just $200 ahead of Mike Williams, most people will likely click his name instead. But Allen's average target depth over the last six weeks is 7.3 yards compared to Williams' 23.1 yards, per airyards.com. Philip Rivers obviously looks to Williams when he wants an explosive pass play, meaning he should be able to shake loose for some big gains against this putrid secondary. He doesn't provide the safe PPR floor, but his ceiling is miles ahead of Allen's, and he'll be far less owned in DFS.
Danny Amendola, WR, Detroit Lions ($6,000)
Danny Amendola stepped up in the wake of Marvin Jones' season-ending injury, catching 8 of his 13 targets for 102 yards. While his average target depth did increase (8.4 in Weeks 1-14, 10.6 in Week 15), he's still operating closer to the line of scrimmage than Kenny Golladay, meaning he'll catch a higher percentage of his targets.
His matchup this week isn't ideal, as the Denver Broncos rank 10th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, but Chris Harris is the main reason for that elite ranking. He should shadow Golladay for most of the game, meaning Amendola will be against Isaac Yiadom, who has logged just seven starts in two seasons. The veteran receiver offers a high floor in this matchup -- albeit with a limited ceiling.
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,900)
Zach Ertz is always a lock for volume when Alshon Jeffery. In the last four games that Jeffery didn't play or left early due to injury, Ertz has totaled 48 targets, 337 yards, and 3 scores. Jeffery is on IR, and Nelson Agholor might get shut down for the season, so his volume will undoubtedly continue this week.
The matchup is also excellent, as the Cowboys have allowed the third-most receptions to tight ends this season. Ertz is pricy at $6,900 -- nice -- but he's projected to be the highest scoring tight end on this slate.
Bargain Bin Prospects
DeAndre Washington, RB, Oakland Raiders ($5,600)
With Josh Jacobs out this week -- and probably the rest of the season -- DeAndre Washington will assume the primary running back duties for the Raiders. In the one game Jacobs missed this season, Washington essentially played the same role, totaling 20 carries and converting one of his three red zone touches into a score. He also caught six passes that game, which is something Jacobs hasn't even done all season.
When Jacobs missed Week 14:
DeAndre Washington: 38 snaps, 14 carries, 18 routes, 7 targets
Jalen Richard: 23 snaps, 7 carries, 12 routes, 3 targets https://t.co/jjrOg39YUE
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 18, 2019
Washington had that solid game against a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks fourth against the run when adjusted for schedule. Now he gets the Los Angeles Chargers, who rank 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. He should absolutely smash this matchup.
He'll likely be the chalk in cash games and tournaments with a price tag under $6,000, but it'll be hard to fade Washington's role and matchup on this slate.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($5,900)
Speaking of mispriced players, Christian Kirk found a way to get priced under $6,000 against the Seahawks. Seattle ranks a respectable 17th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, but they have given up big games to Robert Woods and D.J. Moore in back to back weeks. They have similar size and speed while also playing in a similar role to Kirk.
This game has the highest total on the slate and the Cardinals are big underdogs. That should lead to more pass attempts for Kyler Murray and more targets for his favorite receiver.
It's also worth noting that Kirk has posted a dud in two games this season (Weeks 4 and 9). In the two following games, he averages 10.5 targets, 7.0 receptions, 106.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. Kirk just posted a dud last week against the Cleveland Browns, so we should know what's coming next. He's projected to be the best value per dollar receiver on the slate.
Greg Ward, WR, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,700)
With both Jeffery and Agholor likely done for the season, Greg Ward will continue to operate as the top receiver for Philadelphia. In his first game in that role last week, Ward caught seven balls for 61 yards, including the game-winning touchdown. Not many better ways to build chemistry with your quarterback than that.
Ward has a solid matchup in the slot this week with Jourdan Lewis, the Cowboys' slot cornerback. He allowed the Los Angeles Rams' pass catchers to haul in six of seven targets in his coverage for 39 yards and a touchdown. Ward has seen at least seven targets in three of his four games this season. Look for that to continue in this soft matchup.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.