3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 15
We have loads of pieces on numberFire dedicated to helping you figure out which plays you should target in your daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you should definitely check them all out!
But an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play. Narrowing down your short list of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.
Let's go through three guys to consider fading on this week's DFS main slates.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Price: $8,000
DraftKings Price: $6,300
That's gonna be a tall order for signal-caller Aaron Rodgers, who, despite his name recognition, hasn't been all that solid in 2019.
Let's start with the Bears' D, a unit that's been dominant against the pass. Prior to last week, when Dak Prescott feasted in garbage time, they had yet to allow a 300-yard passer this year, ranking ninth overall against the pass, per our metrics. They're a difficult foe.
As far as Rodgers goes, in terms of Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, his 0.18 Passing NEP per drop back mark (13th) and Passing Success Rate (46.19%, 21st) show he hasn't been all that great. The Packers' implied team total of 22.00 points is pretty bland on this main slate.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Price: $8,500
DraftKings Price: $7,800
What on earth is going with the Dallas Cowboys?
While it seems like no one wants to take control of the NFC East, the 'Boys currently lead the division with a sub .500 record. That may slide to 6-8 if they can't pick things up offensively, and Ezekiel Elliott is likely to have his hands full this week.
Via our per-play metrics, the Los Angeles Rams rank fifth against the run this year, and dating back to Week 6, they've allowed only three teams to break the 100-rushing yard mark. Last week against Wilson, Chris Carson and the Seattle Seahawks, this Rams D allowed only six points to that juggernaut offense.
Keep in mind that Elliott has not topped 100 rushing yards in any of the last four games, and he is averaging 0.00 Rushing NEP per play in his last five games (87 carries). He's not playing great, and the matchup is a tough one.
Spend up for Elliott at your own risk.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $7,500
DraftKings Price: $7,000
While by most traditional measures, Julio Jones is enjoying a solid 2019 -- he's surpassed 1,000 receiving yards with a 19.9% target market share -- it's not your typical Jones year. Prior to 2019, he'd gone for at least 1,400 receiving yards in five straight years, and that's starting to look like a stretch for this campaign.
He's also missed out on 100-yard receiving days in four straight games, and he is currently battling an injury designation that could hamper him.
The matchup stinks, too. Going by our metrics, the San Francisco 49ers' defense ranks second to only the New England Patriots, and they have allowed just three teams to surpass 300 yards passing this year all while holding four teams under the century mark. Ouch.
Being 10.5-point underdogs should lead to a lot of passing for the Atlanta Falcons, but their 19.5-point implied team total ain't too saucy. Don't hold your breath waiting for a big Jones effort in Week 15.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.