4 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 15
One of the crucial aspects of daily fantasy football is unearthing cheap production.
Our projections can help you do just that by allowing you to sort players by their point-per-dollar value. A lot of times, the top value plays come as a result of injury situations, meaning it's imperative to see inactives on Sunday morning before setting your lineups.
When looking for a salary-saving option, check out one of these main-slate players this week.
Patrick Laird, RB, Dolphins ($5,500)
Patrick Laird is getting a pretty nice workload for a guy priced at $5,500. He played 80% of the snaps last week and has seen at least five targets in three of the past four games.
That kind of usage would be intriguing for any cheap running back, but it's particularly enticing this week as the Miami Dolphins take on the New York Giants, owners of the league's eighth-worst D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. Miami has a respectable -- for them -- 21.00-point implied total as a 3.5-point road 'dog.
While Laird's upside isn't sexy in this offense, the volume should be there, and our models have him as the best point-per-dollar play among any running back priced at $6,000 or cheaper. He's in play in all formats and is handy if you want to spend up at wideout.
Phillip Lindsay, RB, Broncos ($6,400)
Phillip Lindsay is simply too cheap -- 20th-most expensive running back -- for a guy with his workload and matchup.
Let's start with the opponent as the Denver Broncos are on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs. As a 9.5-point underdog, Denver may not be able to lean on the run game for long, but if they can keep it close, Lindsay could eat. KC ranks as the fourth-worst run D by our numbers, and they've allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (26.8).
Lindsay has become the clear top dog in this backfield, with the Broncos shifting work in his favor since their bye. In their four post-bye outings, Lindsay holds a 72-31 opportunity (carries plus targets) edge over Royce Freeman. The pass-game work has been more evenly split, but Lindsay still holds a 10-9 edge in the target department, so he should be plenty active even if the Chiefs roll.
Our projections have Lindsay as the main slate's RB9 on a point-per-dollar basis.
Chris Conley, WR, Jaguars ($5,100)
With D.J. Chark looking like he'll sit this week, Chris Conley becomes an appealing value play. The Jacksonville Jaguars are heading out west to do battle with the Oakland Raiders, who rank third-worst against the pass, per our metrics.
Conley has been targeted just eight times total over the last two weeks, but he was seeing good volume before that, with targets counts of nine, eight, seven, seven and seven in his previous five. The loss of Chark leaves a big hole as he paces the Jags in both target share (22%) and air yards share (35%), according to AirYards.com. Conley is already seeing 28% of the team's air yards, so he should get some high-leverage looks versus a bad defense on Sunday.
Conley is in play in cash, and he can be a part of game stacks in GPPs.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs ($5,400)
Maybe this is the week when Sammy Watkins pops again?
Since his 42.3-FanDuel-point eruption in Week 1, Watkins has a single-game high of 9.8 points while playing big snaps in one of the league's most explosive offenses. That's not ideal.
But the positive is he's on the field a lot and is seeing a good amount of targets from Patrick Mahomes. In the five games in which Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Watkins have played a majority of snaps, they have dominated the pass-game volume in this offense. Hill has a 28.3% target share, Kelce has seen 22.8% of the looks, and Watkins has logged a 20.7% target share, with nobody else getting a double-digit share.
As long as he keeps his current role, Watkins is bound to flash again at some point.
With Chris Harris likely spending a lot of time on Hill, Watkins could shine this week. While the floor is low, he will likely a lower-owned way to get exposure to an offense that holds a 27.50-point implied total, the second-highest on the slate.