NFL
Why Stevan Ridley's Time as the Featured Back in New England Could Be Over
The Patriots' tailback frustrates his coaching staff with his fumbles. Could this be the year he loses his job altogether because of it?

If Bill Belichick were an Internet-savvy kid rather than a grumpy old coach with more Lombardi Trophies than he knows what to do with, he might include a "You had one job!" meme in Stevan Ridley's weekly review when the team assesses their film every week.

That's because the coach understands the value of holding onto the football, and emphasizes that point when he frequently benches his running back for failing to do so. Ridley's fumbles are a well-documented risk, and that has led to speculation that Ridley might not even make the Patriots roster.

per Field Yates - a career that saw the Wisconsin back touch the ball 754 times. That's a touch-to-fumble rate approximately six times better than Ridley, and over 10 times better than Bolden.

And as for the similarity, let's take a look at how the three players compare based on NFL Combine measurables.

PlayerHeightWeight40 Yd. Dash3-Cone20 Yd. ShuttleSpeed Score
Ridley712254.666.784.2195.43
Bolden712224.666.964.4494.15
White692044.577.054.293.54

Speed score accounts for a player's weight and speed, which equalizes the backs despite White's smaller size but quicker 40 time. The shuttle times are similar, and the three-cone times favor Ridley, but Bolden and White are very close.

These are the sorts of measurables that go into our READ metric, which compares rookies with past first-year players based on the offensive situation to which they're drafted. And according to that metric, the strongest comparables for James White are all first-year success stories such as Alfred Morris, Domanick Davis, Matt Forte, Ronnie Brown and Knowshon Moreno.

To add insult to injury for Ridley, he's also listed as a strong comparable to White, who holds onto the ball with more confidence and security than his new teammate.

Who Gets the Job?

NFL fans, and especially fantasy football players, hate the phrase "running back-by-committee," but in New England, it's almost a certainty this season. Shane Vereen remains the best option as a receiving back, and could have the only clearly defined role in the backfield.

But the former Cal tailback has never carried the ball more than 62 times in an NFL season, and that's not a number he's likely to eclipse by an incredibly large margin in 2014.

So who carries the rest of the load?

Based on what we've learned in the data above, the demise of Stevan Ridley might be slightly exaggerated, but it's certainly founded in reality. The back isn't a special athlete when compared to his peers, nor does he have a strong history of efficiency and production in the league. But with a cheap contract and a not-as-bad-as-you-think fumble rate, he's likely to stick around for at least one more year.

The same can't be said for Bolden, who, despite being a bit better from an efficiency standpoint, is a much more frequent fumbler than Ridley, and provides no other traits to set him apart from any other replacement-level back.

But it's White who offers the most upside, as he's on par athletically with the other Patriots runners but possesses a superior track record of ball security. Should his peers stumble (or fumble) and give him a shot at carries with the offense this season, he may never give his coaches a reason to put him back on the bench.

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