FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 Thursday Night
Tonight's clash pits one of the league's best teams against one of the worst as the Baltimore Ravens host the New York Jets. The spread is as lopsided as you'd imagine, with the Ravens an overwhelming 16.5-point favorite. Even with the large spread, 66% of the money is coming in on the line is on Baltimore, per our oddsFire tool.
The total is just 45.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Most of the public thinks that's too low, but some big-money bets have been dropped on the under. While 65% of the bets on the total are on the over, 49% of the money is on the under.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens ($17,500)
FanDuel priced up Lamar Jackson compared to most quarterbacks on single-game slates, but does it really matter? The MVP favorite is likely to see an insane ownership number tonight, and he'll be a very popular MVP pick, as well.
While game theory dictates that we at least have to consider fading anyone who could see an ownership clip of 80% or more, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which fading Jackson works out well barring an injury. Whether it's in the air or on the ground, Jackson is the Ravens' offense, and with Baltimore a 16.5-point favorite with a 31.0-point implied total, he could go nuts tonight.
Our models project him for 24.8 FanDuel points -- 9.5 more than anyone else. The question isn't whether or not to roster Jackson; it's whether you should put him in the MVP slot. His floor/ceiling combination is unrivaled on the slate, but it's worth sprinkling in others into the MVP slot in a few lineups.
Mark Ingram, RB, Ravens ($14,000)
Mark Ingram is the other obvious MVP play, as this should be a run-heavy night for Baltimore. We have Ingram projected for 15.1 carries, 74.3 yards, and 0.83 rushing scores, the latter of which is tops on the slate. In all, our models see him totaling 15.3 FanDuel points, the best non-Jackson projection of the night.
Ingram isn't without warts, however. He's played exactly 55% of the snaps in each of the last two games -- far from a bell-cow role -- and in the Ravens' laugher over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12, Ingram logged just a 31% snap rate. In a game in which Baltimore is favored by more than two tuddies, we should be worried about Ingram's second-half workload.
Still, in spite of the very real concerns, Ingram is more than capable of doing what has made him such a fantasy stud all year -- finding the end zone. In said Rams game, Ingram racked up 111 rushing yards and a score in addition to a seven-yard receiving touchdown. He's got multiple-tud upside tonight and should feast on whatever amount of snaps he gets, though he's got some touchdown-or-meh to him.
If you fade Ingram, Gus Edwards ($7,000) makes a ton of sense. Edwards has seen snap rates of 33%, 38% and 41% over the last three weeks, with the 41% clip coming in the blowout of the Rams.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Jets ($8,500)
You have to roster someone on the Jets in spite of their ugly 14.5-point total. Likely facing a very negative game script, using one of their pass-game weapons should be the way to go.
What Crowder lacks in big-play upside, he makes up for in target volume as he's accounted for a team-high 22% target share for the year. He's seen 16 targets across the last two weeks and should be in Sam Darnold's sights often if the Jets are playing catch-up against a Baltimore defense trying to avoid giving up big plays over the top to Anderson.
Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens ($8,000)
Marquise Brown's big-play prowess can swing any single-game slate. He's been rounding into form after dealing with nagging injury issues for a lot of the campaign, playing 72% of the snaps in Week 14, his highest total since Week 4.
On the down side, Hollywood has totaled a mere five targets, four grabs and -1 yard (not a typo) over the last two weeks.
But his 0.2-yard average depth of target in that span is wildly different than his 11.5-yard average depth of target prior to Week 13, and those two games were brutal matchups against the stout pass defenses of the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers.
Justin Tucker, K, Ravens ($10,000)
If you're ever going to fork over $10,000 for a kicker, it might as well be one of the best kickers in NFL history in a game script that should work in his favor.
Justin Tucker is pricey, but we have him pegged for 10.4 FanDuel points, the fifth-most on this slate. While the salary may keep his ownership low, he should be busy, whether it's extra points or field goal tries.
Tucker has made at least one field goal in all but one game, going 23 of 24 this season, including 8 of 9 from 40-plus. He's made multiple field goals in six games this year, all of which were wins. He's 47 of 48 on extra points, attempting seven more than anyone else while making eight more than any other kicker.
The price is tough to stomach, but if sharp money is right about the under -- which we touched on in the intro -- and we don't see many touchdowns, Tucker could be a pivotal play tonight.