3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for Week 14
Online Sportsbook provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, giving you a chance to stay involved in a familiar way. With Week 14 on the horizon, here are a few standout prop bets for Sunday's action this week.
Joe Mixon - Over 82.5 Total Yards -118
Playing an elevated role of late, Joe Mixon enters Week 14 with a depressed player prop of 82.5 total yards. In a rivalry game against the Cleveland Browns, the over looks like a potential value here.
With Andy Dalton back under center in Week 13, Mixon set season-high marks in snap rate (80 percent) and routes run (22) out of the backfield. Since the Week 9 bye, Mixon averages 20.5 rushing attempts per game and adds 2.5 targets. Currently, our projections list Mixon for 88.06 total yards, giving him almost five yards of value on his player prop.
While Cleveland's defense ranks 20th overall, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics, Mixon finds a particularly solid matchup in the receiving game as Cleveland sits fourth in yards per target allowed to opposing running backs. Even with Cleveland sitting as 7.0-point favorites, Mixon's elevated offensive role projects to keep him involved regardless of game script.
At -118 odds, a $100 bet on Mixon's total yardage prop in this spot nets $84.75.
Devonta Freeman - Over 52.5 Rushing Yards -112
Returning from a multi-week injury, Devonta Freeman reclaimed feature-back duties for the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14. Now slated to face the Carolina Panthers, Freeman's 52.5 rushing yardage prop looks a little too low this week.
In his return from injury, Freeman played 66 percent of Atlanta's offensive snaps in Week 13. He received 17 carries and five targets, showing the ability to handle a sizable workload. According to our projections, Freeman is slated for 56.68 rushing yards, giving him a few yards of value on his player prop.
As for matchup, Freeman draws a dream scenario against the Panthers' struggling run defense. According to our metrics, this unit ranks dead-last in the NFL in run defense, and the Panthers rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5).
With the odds set at at -112, a $100 bet on Freeman besting 52.5 rushing yards in this spot nets $89.29.
Mike Williams - Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -112
A major positive regression candidate heading into Week 14, Mike Williams' 48.5 receiving yardage player prop remains slightly depressed. With the Jacksonville Jaguars on deck, Williams looks like a solid bet to best these numbers.
Set to see ridiculous regression, Williams already has 1,214 air yards to his name this season. With 778 receiving yards, as well, Williams projects for 57.24 receiving yards with this week. That's almost 10 full yards above his listed prop, and Williams looks like one of the best player prop values on the entire slate.
This week, Williams draws a neutral matchup against the Jaguars. According to our metrics, Jacksonville is 20th against the pass, providing enough leeway for Williams to operate in the pass game.
With odds set at -112, a $100 bet on Williams in this spot nets $89.29.