Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 14
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $9,000 | 22.3 | 27.0% | 0.90 | 35.8% | 27.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | $7,700 | 21.2 | 40.8% | 1.96 | 30.1% | 26.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $8,400 | 19.6 | 24.6% | 0.71 | 25.6% | 25.1 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,700 | 19.5 | 30.9% | 1.05 | 23.1% | 24.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,400 | 19.5 | 24.6% | 0.65 | 25.0% | 25.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | $8,200 | 19.1 | 22.7% | 0.64 | 21.7% | 24.2 |
| Matt Ryan | $7,600 | 18.9 | 29.0% | 0.89 | 21.3% | 23.9 |
| Sam Darnold | $7,700 | 18.2 | 26.9% | 0.72 | 20.0% | 23.6 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,500 | 18.2 | 29.2% | 0.85 | 19.7% | 23.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,300 | 18.1 | 31.2% | 0.92 | 17.9% | 23.2 |
| Tom Brady | $7,700 | 18.0 | 22.7% | 0.65 | 15.8% | 22.7 |
| Josh Allen | $7,800 | 17.4 | 20.8% | 0.51 | 14.9% | 22.2 |
| Drew Brees | $7,700 | 17.2 | 20.7% | 0.53 | 14.4% | 22.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,600 | 17.0 | 22.4% | 0.57 | 15.0% | 22.2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,400 | 16.9 | 24.3% | 0.65 | 15.4% | 22.0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,400 | 16.5 | 21.6% | 0.53 | 12.9% | 21.3 |
| Derek Carr | $7,000 | 16.4 | 29.7% | 0.76 | 14.7% | 21.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,800 | 16.3 | 16.9% | 0.37 | 12.8% | 20.9 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,300 | 16.2 | 24.6% | 0.59 | 12.0% | 21.8 |
| Kyle Allen | $7,100 | 16.2 | 23.9% | 0.60 | 11.9% | 21.1 |
| Devlin Hodges | $7,000 | 15.9 | 26.5% | 0.70 | 11.5% | 21.3 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $6,600 | 15.7 | 31.9% | 0.90 | 12.8% | 21.2 |
| Andy Dalton | $7,000 | 14.3 | 19.3% | 0.41 | 7.2% | 19.4 |
| David Blough | $6,900 | 13.5 | 16.8% | 0.34 | 6.2% | 18.7 |
| Drew Lock | $6,800 | 13.4 | 17.9% | 0.34 | 5.9% | 18.3 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $6,500 | 11.5 | 13.2% | 0.22 | 2.9% | 16.6 |
Cash-Game Standouts
My projections love Deshaun Watson ($7,700) -- overall but especially at his salary -- this week in a spot against the Denver Broncos' mid-level pass defense. He's a pretty enticing cash-game play if you don't have the salary to get to the pricier passers. The next best floor/ceiling combinations belong to Jameis Winston ($7,700), Ryan Tannehill ($7,300), Lamar Jackson ($9,000), Gardner Minshew ($6,600), and Matt Ryan ($7,600).
With tough matchups for most of the studs, Watson and Jackson really stand out to me this week.
Tournament Standouts
Watson, Minshew, Winston, Tannehill, and Ryan have the highest tournament value marks (FanDuel points from their 75th-percentile outcomes compared to their prices).
Jackson, Watson, Aaron Rodgers ($8,400), Patrick Mahomes ($8,400), and Winston are all significantly likely to return 25 FanDuel points, so while Rodgers and Mahomes have lower floors, their ceilings are still very much appealing for tournament rosters.
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $11,000 | 23.2 | 14.7% | 0.32 | 61.6% | 29.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,700 | 19.1 | 21.9% | 0.49 | 44.6% | 25.3 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,500 | 17.8 | 29.8% | 0.81 | 40.4% | 23.7 |
| Derrick Henry | $9,100 | 17.4 | 12.6% | 0.24 | 40.4% | 23.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,600 | 17.3 | 25.0% | 0.61 | 37.4% | 22.8 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,900 | 16.5 | 20.2% | 0.45 | 36.7% | 22.5 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,300 | 15.8 | 18.3% | 0.39 | 25.8% | 20.1 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $7,300 | 14.5 | 16.0% | 0.31 | 22.0% | 19.4 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,800 | 14.2 | 12.9% | 0.23 | 23.6% | 19.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,700 | 14.1 | 11.8% | 0.20 | 20.7% | 18.7 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,000 | 12.9 | 22.1% | 0.48 | 14.0% | 17.5 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,700 | 12.4 | 13.0% | 0.23 | 13.1% | 16.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | $6,100 | 12.2 | 18.3% | 0.36 | 13.2% | 16.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,000 | 12.1 | 8.2% | 0.13 | 10.5% | 16.1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,400 | 11.8 | 14.1% | 0.25 | 11.6% | 16.6 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,400 | 11.6 | 5.9% | 0.09 | 11.4% | 16.3 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,700 | 11.2 | 6.5% | 0.10 | 6.5% | 15.2 |
| James White | $6,000 | 11.2 | 11.9% | 0.21 | 7.4% | 15.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,400 | 10.6 | 9.7% | 0.15 | 8.4% | 15.1 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,600 | 10.3 | 13.6% | 0.24 | 5.3% | 14.2 |
| Patrick Laird | $5,500 | 10.2 | 16.5% | 0.31 | 6.2% | 14.7 |
| Marlon Mack | $7,300 | 10.2 | 6.0% | 0.08 | 10.5% | 15.6 |
| Sony Michel | $6,600 | 10.1 | 5.5% | 0.08 | 4.9% | 14.5 |
| Benny Snell Jr. | $6,100 | 10.0 | 11.9% | 0.19 | 8.6% | 14.6 |
| LeSean McCoy | $6,100 | 9.8 | 8.8% | 0.13 | 4.6% | 13.9 |
| Carlos Hyde | $6,000 | 9.6 | 9.2% | 0.14 | 5.4% | 13.6 |
| Derrius Guice | $6,300 | 9.2 | 5.0% | 0.07 | 3.1% | 13.2 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,600 | 9.0 | 10.8% | 0.17 | 3.6% | 12.8 |
| Bo Scarbrough | $5,900 | 8.8 | 8.2% | 0.12 | 3.5% | 12.9 |
| Ronald Jones II | $5,800 | 8.7 | 5.9% | 0.09 | 2.3% | 12.5 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $5,500 | 8.7 | 9.5% | 0.14 | 2.0% | 12.3 |
| Tevin Coleman | $5,500 | 8.1 | 10.3% | 0.15 | 3.6% | 12.7 |
| Damien Williams | $6,000 | 7.6 | 1.8% | 0.02 | 0.8% | 11.1 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,300 | 7.3 | 5.6% | 0.08 | 1.1% | 10.8 |
| Alexander Mattison | $5,100 | 7.2 | 7.5% | 0.11 | 1.5% | 11.0 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,300 | 7.1 | 6.2% | 0.08 | 0.5% | 10.6 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,600 | 6.8 | 2.1% | 0.03 | 0.6% | 9.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,200 | 6.8 | 2.8% | 0.03 | 1.4% | 11.2 |
| Peyton Barber | $5,700 | 6.3 | 3.4% | 0.04 | 1.0% | 10.1 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,700 | 6.0 | 0.9% | 0.01 | 0.1% | 9.2 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Running back lacks conviction plays this week, and finding cash-game locks is tough. Leonard Fournette ($7,500) is the closest thing we have, and the model backs that up. Alvin Kamara ($7,600) gets a tough matchup with the San Francisco 49ers but has an elevated floor due to his receiving work and should have positive touchdown regression coming his way.
Dalvin Cook ($8,700) has game script and injury concerns. Devonta Freeman ($6,000) has a stellar price and matchup. Nick Chubb ($7,900) has the right game script but is ceding work to Kareem Hunt ($6,400).
Tournament Standouts
Fournette, Kamara, Freeman, Cook, Chubb, Le'Veon Bell ($7,300), Kenyan Drake ($6,100), Patrick Laird ($5,500), Christian McCaffrey ($11,000), and Melvin Gordon ($7,300) rate out with the best tournament value grades.
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $8,600 | 17.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | 63.3% | 22.6 |
| Davante Adams | $8,400 | 16.1 | 44.2% | 1.46 | 56.7% | 20.6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,300 | 15.0 | 43.2% | 1.17 | 49.4% | 20.3 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,900 | 14.4 | 40.0% | 1.05 | 44.9% | 18.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,300 | 14.2 | 36.6% | 0.83 | 44.0% | 19.5 |
| Mike Evans | $7,700 | 14.2 | 43.9% | 1.19 | 45.9% | 18.6 |
| Julian Edelman | $7,600 | 13.8 | 41.4% | 1.16 | 42.8% | 18.2 |
| DJ Moore | $7,100 | 13.8 | 47.0% | 1.60 | 42.4% | 18.0 |
| Julio Jones | $7,800 | 13.3 | 36.4% | 0.86 | 39.4% | 17.6 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,000 | 12.9 | 32.9% | 0.70 | 37.2% | 17.5 |
| DeVante Parker | $7,200 | 12.7 | 38.5% | 1.03 | 34.8% | 16.8 |
| Jarvis Landry | $7,200 | 12.5 | 37.2% | 0.92 | 33.4% | 16.4 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $6,800 | 12.5 | 41.6% | 1.16 | 33.4% | 16.6 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,800 | 12.3 | 42.8% | 1.22 | 34.2% | 16.7 |
| Courtland Sutton | $7,300 | 12.0 | 31.4% | 0.67 | 29.1% | 15.8 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,400 | 11.8 | 33.8% | 0.75 | 32.3% | 16.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | $6,900 | 11.7 | 36.2% | 0.86 | 31.3% | 16.4 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,300 | 11.4 | 41.9% | 1.11 | 25.9% | 15.2 |
| John Brown | $6,400 | 11.1 | 42.9% | 1.17 | 28.9% | 15.7 |
| Jamison Crowder | $6,000 | 10.9 | 39.9% | 1.02 | 21.9% | 14.3 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | $6,400 | 10.8 | 38.9% | 0.95 | 24.8% | 14.9 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,900 | 10.8 | 42.5% | 1.11 | 27.0% | 15.5 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,200 | 10.6 | 37.4% | 0.89 | 22.8% | 14.6 |
| Will Fuller V | $6,600 | 10.6 | 29.0% | 0.60 | 20.7% | 14.0 |
| Robby Anderson | $6,400 | 9.8 | 32.1% | 0.67 | 19.9% | 14.1 |
| James Washington | $6,700 | 9.8 | 26.8% | 0.50 | 17.2% | 13.7 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,800 | 9.8 | 36.1% | 0.82 | 17.8% | 13.6 |
| Tyrell Williams | $5,700 | 9.8 | 36.9% | 0.85 | 17.7% | 13.4 |
| Zach Pascal | $6,100 | 9.7 | 29.9% | 0.60 | 15.3% | 13.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | $5,600 | 9.4 | 37.6% | 0.83 | 15.3% | 12.9 |
| Mike Williams | $5,900 | 9.4 | 35.0% | 0.80 | 17.3% | 13.4 |
| A.J. Brown | $5,400 | 9.4 | 41.1% | 0.98 | 17.8% | 13.4 |
| Adam Thielen | $7,300 | 9.3 | 14.1% | 0.22 | 12.5% | 12.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | $6,000 | 9.2 | 30.0% | 0.64 | 14.6% | 12.9 |
| Dede Westbrook | $6,200 | 9.0 | 26.8% | 0.53 | 15.0% | 12.6 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,700 | 8.9 | 31.5% | 0.67 | 11.7% | 12.6 |
| Cole Beasley | $6,100 | 8.9 | 28.2% | 0.53 | 14.3% | 12.8 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,900 | 8.8 | 27.5% | 0.56 | 10.6% | 12.1 |
| Diontae Johnson | $5,100 | 8.8 | 39.3% | 0.94 | 11.9% | 12.3 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,500 | 8.7 | 36.9% | 0.83 | 15.8% | 12.8 |
| Corey Davis | $5,000 | 7.8 | 35.0% | 0.70 | 8.8% | 11.5 |
| Sammy Watkins | $5,600 | 7.8 | 27.1% | 0.51 | 10.0% | 11.5 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $5,000 | 7.7 | 33.6% | 0.68 | 9.8% | 11.3 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $5,800 | 7.6 | 20.7% | 0.36 | 7.5% | 11.1 |
| Danny Amendola | $5,400 | 7.2 | 23.3% | 0.40 | 5.0% | 10.4 |
| Allen Hurns | $5,100 | 7.2 | 27.1% | 0.50 | 5.5% | 10.5 |
| Chris Conley | $5,400 | 7.0 | 22.0% | 0.37 | 6.6% | 10.2 |
| Auden Tate | $5,500 | 6.9 | 16.8% | 0.27 | 2.7% | 9.7 |
| Adam Humphries | $5,400 | 6.7 | 22.5% | 0.38 | 5.8% | 10.4 |
| Kenny Stills | $5,000 | 6.5 | 25.8% | 0.46 | 5.0% | 10.1 |
| Allen Lazard | $5,600 | 6.3 | 13.4% | 0.20 | 2.5% | 9.4 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $5,400 | 6.3 | 17.1% | 0.27 | 3.2% | 9.6 |
| Russell Gage | $5,700 | 6.3 | 10.6% | 0.15 | 1.5% | 9.1 |
| Albert Wilson | $5,000 | 6.1 | 22.6% | 0.36 | 3.2% | 9.4 |
| Marcus Johnson | $5,200 | 6.1 | 16.2% | 0.25 | 1.2% | 9.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts
Michael Thomas ($8,600), D.J. Moore ($7,100), and Davante Adams ($8,400) are a cut above the rest of the receivers in boom/bust ratio, but with their prices where they are, they require a receiver-heavy build. With some spend-down options at quarterback and running back, that does work in a sense.
Keenan Allen ($6,800), Mike Evans ($7,700), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300), John Brown ($6,400), Julian Edelman ($7,600), and Odell Beckham ($6,800) are the next tier.
The best cash-game profiles among receivers priced $6,500 or below belong to Brown, Tyler Boyd ($6,300), Christian Kirk ($5,900), and Jamison Crowder ($6,000).
Tournament Standouts
Thomas, Kirk, Moore, A.J. Brown ($5,400), Allen, John Brown, Adams, Beckham, Hopkins, and Evans own the best tournament value ratings.
Among cheaper options, it's Kirk, A.J. Brown, Diontae Johnson ($5,100), Jamison Crowder ($6,000), Curtis Samuel ($5,800), and Tyrell Williams ($5,700) with the best ceiling values.
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,100 | 13.1 | 46.9% | 1.39 | 42.8% | 18.3 |
| George Kittle | $6,700 | 12.9 | 47.8% | 1.47 | 37.3% | 17.3 |
| Darren Waller | $6,200 | 12.0 | 44.7% | 1.35 | 29.3% | 15.9 |
| Hunter Henry | $6,400 | 11.0 | 36.2% | 0.90 | 22.5% | 14.6 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,600 | 10.1 | 31.6% | 0.64 | 22.0% | 14.5 |
| Jack Doyle | $6,300 | 9.4 | 28.3% | 0.57 | 13.2% | 13.1 |
| Austin Hooper | $6,600 | 9.3 | 21.3% | 0.38 | 12.2% | 12.6 |
| Jared Cook | $6,500 | 8.7 | 21.3% | 0.37 | 12.4% | 12.3 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $4,800 | 8.3 | 36.3% | 0.85 | 8.4% | 11.3 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,400 | 8.0 | 27.9% | 0.54 | 6.9% | 11.2 |
| Ryan Griffin | $5,600 | 7.4 | 20.1% | 0.34 | 5.2% | 10.4 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,800 | 7.0 | 14.8% | 0.23 | 3.5% | 9.8 |
| Noah Fant | $4,800 | 7.0 | 31.2% | 0.61 | 6.5% | 10.6 |
| Greg Olsen | $4,900 | 5.9 | 16.3% | 0.25 | 1.7% | 8.6 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $5,300 | 5.8 | 15.0% | 0.22 | 2.5% | 9.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,900 | 5.7 | 17.1% | 0.26 | 2.2% | 8.7 |
| Darren Fells | $4,700 | 5.5 | 20.1% | 0.32 | 1.4% | 8.7 |
| Ian Thomas | $4,000 | 5.5 | 25.1% | 0.45 | 1.3% | 8.0 |
| O.J. Howard | $5,400 | 5.3 | 12.4% | 0.17 | 2.1% | 8.4 |
| Jimmy Graham | $5,500 | 5.0 | 8.1% | 0.11 | 0.9% | 8.0 |
| Dawson Knox | $4,500 | 4.8 | 17.7% | 0.27 | 1.8% | 7.8 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,500 | 4.5 | 15.4% | 0.22 | 0.9% | 7.5 |
| Ben Watson | $5,200 | 4.3 | 5.9% | 0.07 | 0.2% | 6.8 |
| Nick Boyle | $4,800 | 4.2 | 11.0% | 0.15 | 1.1% | 7.2 |
Cash-Game Standouts
As usual, it's George Kittle ($6,700), Travis Kelce ($7,100), and Darren Waller ($6,200) as a tier of their own in floor/ceiling combination. Then there's Hunter Henry ($6,400) and Kyle Rudolph ($4,800) as their own secondary tier.
Tournament Values
Oh, look, it's Kittle, Kelce, and Waller again at the top in tournament value. Rudolph, Henry, Noah Fant ($4,800), and Mark Andrews ($6,600) do jump out, as well, and should be less popular than the top trio of the week.
