FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13
Welcome to our weekly FanDuel daily fantasy football helper, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research. As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's premium tools at your disposal. In particular, the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals, and every team's strengths and weaknesses. You also have access to numberFire's weekly projections, which can assist you in nailing down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values.
Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays on the FanDuel main slate.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,600) and Lamar Jackson ($8,700): You rarely need much convincing to roster Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, and they rank first and second at the position by a sizable margin in numberFire's projections. Mahomes gets a cupcake matchup against the Raiders, who rank 29th against the pass in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and are spotting the Chiefs the slate's highest implied total (30.25).
Jackson's matchup against the 49ers is more troublesome -- they rank second in schedule-adjusted pass defense -- but his unparalleled rushing ability has pretty much made him matchup-proof to this point, even posting 28.62 FanDuel points against the Patriots in Week 9. He's now averaging 28.33 FanDuel points per game, even exceeding Christian McCaffrey (27.53) for tops on the board.
Kyler Murray ($7,700): The Rams-Cardinals game has some intriguing shootout potential, featuring two of the league's fastest playing teams and a solid 47.5 total. Per oddsFire, despite just 67% of the bets picking the over, an overwhelming 89% of the money is on that side, suggesting the sharp money is also expecting a high-scoring contest.
Kyler Murray has now posted at least 23 FanDuel points in three straight games, with two of those coming against San Francisco. While his rushing output isn't as consistent as Lamar Jackson, he's still good for at least a few extra points in that department every week, averaging 6.1 carries and 38.0 rushing yards per game with 3 scores.
Additionally, Murray's counterpart, Jared Goff ($7,900), is someone to consider as a contrarian play in tournaments. Despite Goff's awful three-game stretch against tough opponents, he's performed well in favorable matchups this season, exceeding 22 FanDuel points against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Cincinnati. Arizona certainly fits in that category, ranking 28th in schedule-adjusted pass defense.
Carson Wentz ($7,300): Carson Wentz hasn't performed well lately, but the Eagles' offense is getting healthy again, with lineman Lane Johnson passing the concussion protocol and both Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor back at practice this week. Most importantly, he draws the ultimate antidote in the Miami Dolphins, who've been crushed by Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen in back-to-back weeks. Miami ranks 32nd in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and 32nd in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders.
Also, if you can stomach it, Andy Dalton ($6,000) is priced at the quarterback minimum in a plus spot against the Jets, numberFire's 23rd-ranked pass defense. Dalton has actually scored at least 17 FanDuel points in six of his eight starts this year.
Christian McCaffrey ($11,000): After yet another big performance, Christian McCaffrey finally gets a price increase after being at $10,500 the prior three games. That adds additional risk to him hitting value, but he blows away everyone else at the position in raw projected fantasy points, and Carolina is a huge home favorite over Washington. He's scored at least 23 FanDuel points in 9 of 11 games this season.
Saquon Barkley ($7,600): Saquon Barkley failed to produce in a tough matchup against Chicago last week, but his price continues to drop, making him particularly enticing in a possible bounce-back spot versus Green Bay. The Packers rank 31st in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play and have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to running backs. Despite generally disappointing results of late, Barkley is still seeing excellent volume, averaging 16.2 carries and 6.2 targets in his five games since returning from injury.
Le'Veon Bell ($7,300): Le'Veon Bell has struggled on the ground behind a lackluster offensive line and hasn't hit 20 FanDuel points since Week 11, but he's still getting plenty of volume on an offense that's finally starting to show some life. Even in blowout wins over Oakland and Washington where he dropped below a 60% snap rate, Bell still logged 17 and 20 opportunities, giving him a solid floor that can only go up with a full complement of snaps.
Perhaps Cincinnati can keep things more competitive with Andy Dalton back under center, and most of the money is hammering the over, so this game may be more fruitful than the modest 41.5 total would indicate. The Bengals rank just 22nd in schedule-adjusted run defense and have given up the sixth-most FanDuel points to opposing backfields.
Miles Sanders ($5,800): Jordan Howard still hasn't been cleared for contact as of Friday, so Miles Sanders should be the lead back once again this week. Although he hasn't done much in two games without Howard, he's logged at least 15 opportunities and 84% of the snaps in both weeks, and the Miami Dolphins will be far and away his easiest matchup over this stretch. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points to the position this season.
Tyreek Hill ($8,300): With Michael Thomas off the main slate, it's instead Tyreek Hill who leads the way in numberFire's wide receiver projections this week. Hill left last week's game early with a hamstring injury, but he's practicing in full this week, so he'll be good to go against the Raiders' exploitable pass defense. Mahomes peppered Hill for a ridiculous 19 targets against Tennessee in Week 10, reminding us of the ceiling Hill has when these two are on the field together.
Davante Adams ($8,000): Since his return in Week 9, Davante Adams has resumed his role as Aaron Rodgers' clear-cut top target, owning a 33.7% target share and 43.4% air yards share over the last three games. He now gets a golden opportunity for a spike week against the Giants, who rank 26th in schedule-adjusted pass defense and have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to wide receivers.
D.J. Chark ($6,900) and D.J. Moore ($6,800): Although they play for different teams, the two DJs are lumped together here as mid-priced number one options for their respective teams with similarly fantastic matchups. Chark has seen a 23.3% target share and 38.3% air yards share over the last two weeks with Nick Foles, and Tampa Bay has allowed the most FanDuel points to wide receivers by a sizable amount. Meanwhile, Moore has an even better 29.5% target share and 39.5% air yards share over the last seven games and now faces a Washington defense that ranks 27th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play.
Sterling Shepard ($5,900): Golden Tate and Evan Engram have been ruled out for Week 13, and while the matchup against the Packers isn't anything special, Sterling Shepard should move back to the slot and see a boost in targets. As is, even with one or both teammates active, Engram's seen solid target totals of 7, 9, 9, 9, and 9 over five games this season.
Travis Kelce ($7,100): After some dire tight end slates during the bye weeks, we finally get a reasonable selection this weekend, though Travis Kelce still ranks as the best choice in both raw points and point-per-dollar value in numberFire's projections. Kelce has scored touchdowns in both games since Mahomes' return and leads the team with 14 red zone targets this season -- no one else on the team has more than six.
Jack Doyle ($5,000): Jack Doyle was already set to see an increased role moving forward with Eric Ebron going on injured reserve, but T.Y. Hilton has also been ruled out for Week 13, too. Doyle has tallied more than five targets just once all season, so it's hard to gauge how much of a boost he gets, though all three of his touchdowns have come in games with Hilton out. Tennessee also makes for a plus matchup, ranking poorly in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
If Gerald Everett ($6,300) is sidelined this week, Tyler Higbee ($5,500) could be worth a look in tournaments. He gets everyone's favorite tight end matchup in the Arizona Cardinals, who have allowed the most FanDuel points to tight ends, including 12 touchdowns.
Carolina D/ST ($4,700): Carolina projects as the slate's top fantasy defense in what should be a cakewalk against Washington. Dwayne Haskins has struggled over five appearances (three starts), averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and throwing just two touchdowns to six interceptions. The Panthers rank third in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders.
Pittsburgh D/ST ($3,700): Although the Steelers' defense disappointed against Cleveland a couple weeks ago, they'll be at home this time around and rank third in schedule-adjusted pass defense and second in adjusted sack rate. Excluding that misstep, they've otherwise scored double-digit FanDuel points in eight of the last nine games. A move to Devlin Hodges at quarterback should help Pittsburgh keep things more competitive, too, and hopefully prevent them from falling into a negative game script against Cleveland.