Biggest NFL Playoff Odds Movers: Week 13
This is it. There's no more time to fix the issues. Most division titles are being crowned within the month. With only five weeks left in the regular season, teams need to view every game as a playoff matchup. Let’s see which ones took a big leap and which ones have dipped the most. Here are the biggest playoff odds movers following Week 12, according to our models.
Buffalo Bills (8-3)
Playoff Odds Movement: +24.2%
Week 12 Playoff Odds: 58.6%
Week 13 Playoff Odds: 82.8%
We have seen the very good version of Josh Allen since the start of October, as he's thrown only two picks in his last seven games. He has put the ball on the ground six times in that span, but he's only lost one fumble while tossing 12 touchdowns and running in four more.
From disaster to first down. Signature Josh Allen. #Bills pic.twitter.com/ykYIwykgu4
— Bradley Gelber (@BradleyGelber) November 24, 2019
Their defense has also improved, at least against the pass. The Buffalo Bills now rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play after shutting down the Brandon Allen-led Denver Broncos' offense. They are still getting gouged on the ground, checking in 28th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, but shutting down opposing passing games is far more important.
The Bills have quite a bumpy road over the final five weeks of the season. They take on the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, then they'll see the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England Patriots over the next three weeks. Dallas possesses the second-most effective offense in the NFL while the other three teams all rank ninth or better in total defense. It won't be easy, but the Bills have put themselves in a strong position to make the postseason.
Houston Texans (7-4)
Playoff Odds Movement: +12.4%
Week 12 Playoff Odds: 64.9%
Week 13 Playoff Odds: 77.3%
The Houston Texans got a key AFC South win over the Indianapolis Colts last Thursday night, putting them in the driver's seat in the division, one game in front of both the Colts and Tennessee Titans.
Houston will have their work cut out for them this week, as they host the New England Patriots' top-ranked defense. After that matchup, they'll have two easier games against the Broncos and Tampa Bay Buccaneers along with two games against the Tennessee Titans. With Tennessee shooting up the standings, those games will likely be pivotal for the fate of the AFC South.
Tennessee Titans (6-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: +9.7%
Week 12 Playoff Odds: 19%
Week 13 Playoff Odds: 28.7%
Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady: These are just a few names that Ryan Tannehill ranks ahead of in Passing NEP per drop back. Plus, since he took over as the starter in Week 7, the Titans are 4-1 and are averaging 31.4 points per game on offense. Tannehill may be Canton-bound if he keeps this up.
In all seriousness, the Titans have pulled within one game of the Texans for the lead of the AFC South with their recent hot streak. Over the next two weeks, they'll see a banged-up Colts team and an Oakland Raiders squad that were just stomped by the New York Jets, so they should be able to continue their dominant stretch. And with two matchups against their division rival, Houston, in the final three weeks of the season, they could easily don the division crown and sneak into the postseason.
Oakland Raiders (6-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: -30%
Week 12 Playoff Odds: 44.2%
Week 13 Playoff Odds: 13.2%
The Raiders were cruising just a few weeks ago as Jon Gruden was getting recognition as a possible Coach of the Year candidate. Then everything came crashing down in Week 12. Derek Carr and his passing offense that ranked first in Adjusted Passing NEP per play just a few weeks ago was able to muster only three points against a poor Jets secondary.
Gruden: “Hey Carr, we’re gonna need you to lead us to a victory against a 3-7 Jets team before the big game in Arrowhead next week. Will you do that for me?”
Derek Carr: pic.twitter.com/kPOkzMzHrM
— b e a r d w e l l (@LanceTHESPOKEN) November 24, 2019
Carr looked lost when the *stuff* hit the fan, as he wasn't able to execute in negative game script. His performance doesn't bode well for the future, as the Raiders' defense ranks 30th in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play. They'll likely be facing plenty of negative game flow with that defense, and it will be on Carr to dig them out of those holes.
Now a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland has just a 13.2 percent shot at the postseason. A big road win against the Chiefs in Arrowhead this week would likely flip the script, but that is easier said than done.
Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: -21.7%
Week 12 Playoff Odds: 57%
Week 13 Playoff Odds: 35.3%
Having lost three of their last four, the Colts have plummeted in playoff odds down to 35.3 percent. After dropping Week 12 against the Texans, who now have the sole lead in the AFC South, Indy has a rough road to make it to the postseason.
That road starts against the red-hot Titans this Sunday. The Colts handled them in Week 2 with three touchdown passes from Jacoby Brissett while limiting Tennessee to 17 points, but that was with Marcus Mariota at the helm for the Titans. The Titans have been scoring in bunches with Tannehill under center, so the Colts' offense will need to come out firing to match Tennessee's pace.
If they take down the Titans in Lucas Oil Stadium, Indy could be right back at the top of the AFC South with the Texans facing the Patriots this week. With every team neck-and-neck, this division will likely come down to the wire this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
Playoff Odds Movement: -7.6%
Week 12 Playoff Odds: 35.1%
Week 13 Playoff Odds: 27.5%
The Eagles are such a weird team. While they once sat at a 67.4 percent chance to make the postseason, Philly has lost in each of the last two weeks. We know they are one of the most talented teams when healthy and have a coaching staff that infuses analytics into their decision making, but things have not worked out for them this year, losing five games by one score.
They have also dealt with a plethora of injuries and have no speed on offense without the dynamic DeSean Jackson healthy.
Pictures of all QB’s in the NFL having to work with less help on offense than Carson Wentz: pic.twitter.com/68wtXCha5H
— Eagles Nation (5-6) (@PHLEaglesNation) November 27, 2019
Luckily, the Cowboys have left the door open for Philly, losing two of their last three. The Eagles are just one game back of the lead in the NFC East and have been gifted matchups with the Miami Dolphins, Washington, and New York Giants (twice) over their next five games. Assuming they win all of those, the NFC East could very well be decided in the Eagles' Week 16 tilt against Dallas.