4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 13
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 13 of the 2019 NFL season.
Quarterback
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel Price: $7,900
We all saw how rough the Los Angeles Rams offense looked the other night versus the Baltimore Ravens, but we don't want to have recency bias this week.
It has been reported across the fantasy football industry -- so this shouldn't come as massive news -- but Jared Goff hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 8. That means Goff didn't throw a touchdown in the Month of November, not something you want to see from a quarterback who just got a big contract in the offseason. He has under 7 FanDuel points in three straight games, less than 250 passing yards in each of those games, and five interceptions in this span. Yikes. With a 25.25 implied team total this week against the Arizona Cardinals, we can't expect all the points to come via the rushing game.
The Rams have shown over the course of the season that they are limiting Todd Gurley in some capacity. Combined with the fact the Cardinals are allowing 25.3 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks -- which is dead last in the league --, and regardless of Goff's recent struggles, this is a great spot for him and the Rams' offense. We would be targeting Goff stacked with their receivers normally if he was producing as he was in the beginning of the year, so why not now? His $7.9K price tag also isn't appealing this week, when Patrick Mahomes at $8.6K isn't that much more expensive, and Sam Darnold -- who has been playing very well in recent weeks -- is $7.6K.
All of these factors should lead to Goff being lowered owned this week, making him an ideal tournament pivot.
Running Back
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $6,200
With a 48.5-point over/under, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars game is a clear spot to target for fantasy value.
We know that the Buccaneers often play in higher-scoring games since their defense is so bad and they can actually move the ball on offense. As for the Jaguars, they aren't viewed as an elite offense, but since the matchup is so good for them, the scoring should be going both ways. The passing game is the clear priority in this spot, which means Ronald Jones offers exposure to this game, but a lower-ownership -- giving you leverage. There are plenty of DFS players who don't like rostering Jones, or a player like Jones, since he is splitting time with Peyton Barber.
But is Jones even in a spot to produce fantasy points if given the opportunity? Yes. The Jaguars come allowing the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, along with the eighth-most FanDuel points per game. The Jaguars truly aren't good against the run, and with Kenyan Drake, Benny Snell Jr., and Miles Sanders right around Jones in terms of price, he should be the one going over-looked this week.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Price: $6,000
The Cincinnati Bengals are getting Andy Dalton back under center this week, does that bump Tyler Boyd up this week?
We all know the Bengals are sitting on zero wins this season and are not a good team, no secret there. A 19-point implied team total this week is the fourth-lowest on the slate, making this a spot where most fantasy players will choose to avoid. But, fantasy value can be found in this game, and that starts with Boyd. In the eight games of the season with Dalton under center, Boy saw six targets or more in every single game, had nine or more targets in six of those games, but only one touchdown in all of that action. You could say he is due for positive touchdown regression, which should only be boosted with Dalton back.
I get it, you may not look here for a game stack, but Boyd could easily see 10 targets this week.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans
FanDuel Price: $5,300
Tight end is a wasteland outside of the top-tier, but it doesn't mean we can't cherry-pick some value.
Earlier today, the Tennessee Titans put Delanie Walker on injured reserve, which is a formality at this point since he hasn't played since the middle of October. In that time, we have seen Jonnu Smith take over the starting tight end job, playing 73% of the snaps or more in each game since Walker was injured. Last week, Smith played on a season-high 94% of the offensive snaps and saw a grand total of ZERO targets. Yes, not a single target went in his direction, despite the fact the Titans posted a very impressive 42 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This week, we have Smith projected for 4.76 targets -- which he should be able to turn into fantasy points -- since he is up against the Indianapolis Colts, who are allowing 10.2 FanDuel points per game to tight ends. With an over/under of only 43.5 in this game, we should see Smith lower-owned compared to Dallas Goedert for the Philadelphia Eagles or Tyler Higbee of the Los Angeles Rams, since Gerald Everett is listed as day-to-day.
