3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for Week 12
FanDuel Sportsbook provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, giving you a chance to stay involved in a familiar way. With Week 12 on the horizon, here are a few standout prop bets for Sunday's action this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-112)
An interesting spot for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Miami Dolphins take on the Cleveland Browns this week as 10.5-point road underdogs. Even in negative game script, bookmakers set Fitzpatrick's passing prop at 228.5, creating value on the Week 12 card.
According to our schedule-adjusted metrics, Cleveland's defense ranks eighth against the pass this season. While strong defensive back play contributes heavily to this metric, pass rush also plays a role. This week, Cleveland will be without Myles Garrett (suspension), Larry Ogunjobi (suspension), and Olivier Vernon (injury). Down to an entire defensive line of reserves, Fitzpatrick should have ample time to pass and rack up yardage in this game.
Using our models, Fitzpatrick currently projects for 265.86 passing yards, giving him a whopping 40 passing yards of value on his player prop. Averaging 36.6 pass attempts per game in his last five contests, volume also projects to favor the veteran signal caller in this spot.
Right now, a $100 bet on Fitzpatrick besting 228.5 passing yards in this spot returns $89.29.
Odell Beckham Jr. - Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
In the same game, Odell Beckham also has a depressed player prop, set at 65.5 receiving yards. With a matchup against Miami's poor secondary on deck, Beckham looks like a solid play this weekend.
Looking at volume alone, Beckham has 59 percent of Cleveland's air yards and 31 percent of their targets in their last three games. According to our models, Beckham projects for 79.47 receiving yards, giving him more than 10 yards of value on his prop.
Beckham should also benefit from a matchup against the Dolphins' 31st-ranked pass defense, according to our metrics. Last week alone, the Dolphins permitted John Brown to rack up 137 receiving yards and a pair of scores on nine catches.
With volume and matchup on OBJ's side, a $100 bet on Beckham eclipsing 65.5 receiving yards nets $84.75.
Joe Mixon - Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-102)
As for under-the-radar player props, Joe Mixon's rushing attempts prop looks slightly elevated in Week 12. Looking at game environment, the Pittsburgh Steelers enter the Week as 6.5-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals, making the under on Mixon's rushing attempts prop an interesting wager.
Mixon has eclipsed 16.5 carries on only three occasions this season. One such game occurred in Week 10, when Mixon carried the ball 30 times, likely elevating his rushing attempt prop here. However, Giovani Bernard exited that game with an injury, leaving Mixon to soak up all rushing attempts late in the game.
Our models place Mixon's rushing attempts right at 16.44 for this game, giving it little value based on math alone. However, Pittsburgh ranks first overall in rushing defense, pointing a more pass-focused approach from the Bengals.
Mixon has volume and game script working against him here. A $100 wager on Mixon failing to reach 16.5 rushing attempts nets $98.04.