NFL Weather Report: Week 12

The weather was surprisingly quiet in Week 11.

Wind speeds were down, and their effects were mostly quieted by either offensive or defensive performances. The wind was a noted factor in the New England Patriots-Philadelphia Eagles game, but the speeds were down to 13 MPH by game time. While analysts may use it as a reason for the measly 27 total points scored in the game, it's easier to look at each team to separate out the cause.

New England entered Week 11 with the best defense in the league, per our numbers. Philadelphia, without Alshon Jeffery or Jordan Howard, was going to have a difficult time moving the ball against the Pats' D. New England's offense also became short-handed during the game. Mohamed Sanu left with an ankle injury and Phillip Dorsett was concussed, leaving Tom Brady with fewer options. Injuries and drops played a more significant role in the game than the wind as multiple field goals still found their mark.

Games like this serve as a reminder that we should look to the extreme conditions and focus on the fantasy assets involved before downgrading a matchup.

Overview

Below are the games with weather concerns headed into Week 12.

Games Impacted by Wind

Miami Dolphins (17.25-point implied total) at Cleveland Browns (28.25)

Fantasy managers with Baker Mayfield or any Browns pass catcher on their rosters have been waiting for a matchup like this for some time. Miami has the sixth-worst defense, per our schedule-adjusted numbers, and has allowed a minimum of 200 yards passing and one touchdown over their last five games, giving Baker a solid floor. While the wind speed is close to our normal range of concern, there’s little worry for this game.

We noted this back in Week 10, but the Browns have been in games with similar conditions. In Week 10, the game proceeded without any impedance from the elements. Mayfield finished the week sixth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) and totaled 232 yards passing and twp touchdowns. It was one of his better performances, and it was noted the 17-MPH winds observed in the area had little effect on the field. The stadium’s design (171-feet high) negated most of the impact, keeping the focus on the plays being made.

Week 12 features a similar set up. There’s a small chance of rain, leaving only the wind for fantasy managers to consider. Given recent observations and even lighter conditions, the weather should play a minimal role in this week’s Miami-Cleveland clash..

Games Affected by Precipitation

Oakland Raiders (24.75-point implied total) at New York Jets (21.75)

Dallas Cowboys (19.25) at New England Patriots (25.75)

Quick reference for rainfall that we’ve used throughout the season:

The Raiders-Jets game has a forecast average of 0.02 inches per hour with precipitation rates declining as the game progresses. Derek Carr has been at or above his seasonal passing average and fantasy totals in better than 70% of his matchups featuring similar conditions. Essentially, the rain has had a minimal impact on his play. With only light rain in the forecast, fantasy managers can proceed as plan for this game.

The Cowboys-Patriots game has some cause for concern. The late start (4:25 p.m. EST) promotes lower temperatures as the game goes on. In addition, maximum rainfall will be at 0.06 inches per hour. That still falls into the Light Rain category. For contest, the Washington-San Francisco Mud Bowl earlier this year had a maximum 0.10 inches per hour. Heavier rainfall is expected throughout the day, but it should taper off as the game progresses. The cold mixed with rain may give way to slips or poor footing during the game. Field covers should be used prior to the game, but that didn’t happen ahead of the Pats' Week 8 game against Cleveland.

With Tom Brady's fantasy output lacking of late and possible missing receivers, there should be legitimate concern regarding the team’s implied total and outlook for Week 12.