Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 12
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Last week was another great week for this column. For the second straight week, three of the four players recommended finished inside the top-four at the position. If you started Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen in cash last week, you likely won some money in Week 11.
Without further ado, let's dig in for Week 12.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Matt Ryan ($7,900) -- Matt Ryan has not been a name mentioned in this column very often through the first 11 weeks of the season. He is averaging 19.14 points per game this year, down from the 22.19 points per game he averaged last season. However, Ryan has a fantastic opportunity to explode in Week 12. Ryan gets a matchup at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. The Buccaneers have the eighth-worst passing defense according to our power rankings, and they have allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. The last four quarterbacks to face this defense have thrown for three or more touchdowns. In a game with the highest over/under of the week, there is a decent chance we see that trend continue. Our projections have Ryan as the top point-per-dollar value across all positions in Week 12. Fire up Ryan in all formats this week.
Jameis Winston ($7,600) -- On the other side of the ball in that game is Jameis Winston. If we believe this game will be a shootout, then Winston needs to be considered in tournaments as well. The Atlanta Falcons' defense has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season and are ranked as the third-worst pass defense in the league according to our power rankings. However, we have seen a much improved Falcons defense over the past three weeks. In their last three matchups, they have held Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Kyle Allen to under 16 fantasy points. They have not allowed a passing touchdown in two straight weeks. That trend will likely end this week, but with this defense trending in the right direction, Winston, who has four more interceptions than any other quarterback this season, is one of the riskier plays of the week. However, we should be focused on upside rather than risk in tournaments. Winston has week-winning upside in this matchup if it turns into a shootout. He is the second-best point-per-dollar value across all positions according to our projections.
Baker Mayfield ($7,500) -- Baker Mayfield is another name we have not seen much in this column this season. This has been a season to forget for Mayfield. After setting the rookie touchdown record last year, Mayfield ranks outside the top-24 in average points scored this season. However, he has a great chance to turn the narrative around in Week 12 with a matchup at home against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have the second-worst passing defense according to our power rankings and have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. The one concern in this matchup is how run-heavy the Browns could be. The Dolphins also rank as the fourth-worst rushing defense, and we could see the Browns take a big lead in this one as double-digit favorites. The upside is why we want to play Mayfield in tournaments, and the floor is why we should avoid playing him in cash. Mayfield is the fifth-best point-per-dollar value at the position according to our projections.
Russell Wilson ($8,200) -- With no Lamar Jackson on the slate this week, we will need to find a cash-game replacement. Enter Russell Wilson. Wilson has not scored fewer than 14 fantasy points in any game so far this season. That is precisely the type of floor we are looking for in cash games. Wilson has thrown two or more touchdowns in 70% of his games this season. We should see Wilson hit that mark again in a matchup with the second-highest over/under of the week. Wilson will be up against the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank in the middle of the pack against against the pass according to our power rankings. Our models have Wilson has the fourth-best point-per-dollar value across all positions in Week 12.
Quarterback to Avoid
Dak Prescott ($8,100) -- Prescott is having the best season of his young career. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 80% of his games this year and is averaging the third-most points per week at the position. He smashed as our Play of the Week in last week's column, but we would be wise to look elsewhere in Week 12. Prescott gets a road matchup with the New England Patriots, who have the best secondary in the league according to our power rankings. Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback who has scored over 13 fantasy points against this defense this season. Over half of the passers who have played the Patriots scored under six points. With the third-highest price tag of Week 12, Prescott is outside the top-eight value plays at the position this week according to our projections.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.